2000 and 2004 American National Election Study

Preference for Control of Government

Do you think it is better when one party controls both the presidency and Congress, better when control is split between the Democrats and Republicans, or doesn't it matter?

Follows government and public affairs

Some people seem to follow what's going on in government and public affairs most of the time, whether there's an election going on or not. Others aren't thatinterested. Would you say you follow what's going on in government and public affairs most of the time, some of the time, only now and then, or hardly at all?

Political Sophistication

Eduation: less than high school, high school diploma, some college, post-baccaalaurate

Placement of the Democratic Party on the 7 point ideological scale

Where would you place the Democratic Party on this scale?

Placement of the Republican Party on the 7 point ideological scale

Where would you place the Republican Party on this scale?

Placement of the Democratic Party on spending on government services scale

Where would you place the Democratic Party on this issue?

Placement of the Republican Party on spending on government services scale

Where would you place the Republican Party on this issue?

Placement of the Democratic Party on spending on defense spending scale

Where would you place the Democratic Party on this issue?

Placement of the Republican Party on spending on defense spending scale

Where would you place the Republican Party on this issue?

Trust in Government

How much of the time do you think you can trust the government in Washington to do what is right – just about always, most of the time, or only some of the time?

Do you think that people in government waste a lot of the money we pay in taxes, waste some of it, or don't waste very much of it?

Would you say the government is pretty much run by a few big interests looking out for themselves or that it is run for the benefit of all the people?

External Efficacy

“Public officials don't care much what people like me think.” Do you agree strongly, agree somewhat, neither agree nor disagree, disagree somewhat, or disagree strongly with this statement?

“People like me don't have any say about what the government does.” Do you agree strongly, agree somewhat, neither agree nor disagree, disagree somewhat, or disagree strongly with this statement?

Satisfied with Democracy

On the whole, are you satisfied, fairly satisfied, notvery satisfied, or not at all satisfied with the waydemocracy works in the United States?

Presidential Approval

2000 ANES:

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Clinton is handling his job as president?

2004 ANES:

Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Bush is handling his job as president?

Congressional Approval

Do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Congress has been handling its job?

Relative Distance

We hear a lot of talk these days about liberals and conservatives. Here is a seven-point scale on which the political views that people might hold are arranged from extremely liberal to extremely conservative.

Where would you place yourself on this scale, or haven't you thought much about this?

Where would you place the Republican Party on this scale?

Where would you place the Democratic Party on this scale?

Partisanship

Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or what?

2001 [DELETED FOR CONFIDENTIALITY]National Opinion Survey

Preference for Control of Government

“When the president is a Republican, do you prefer that the Democrats control Congress or that the Republicans control Congress?”

When the president is a Democrat, do you prefer that the Democrats control Congress or that the Republicans control Congress?

Follows Government and Public Affairs

Some people seem to follow what's going on in government and public affairs most of the time, whether there's an election going on or not. Others aren't that interested. Would you say you follow what's going on in government and public affairs most of the time, some of the time, only now and then, or hardly at all?

Political Knowledge

Who has the final responsibility to decide if a law is constitutional or not—is the president, Congress, or the Supreme Court?

Which party has the most members in the House of Representatives in Washington, the Republicans or Democrats?

Which party is more conservative than the other party at the national level, the Republicans or Democrats?

In last year’s presidential race, which candidate—George W. Bush or Al Gore—won the most popular votes nationwide?

Trust in Government

How much of the time do you think you can trust the government in Washington to do what is right –almost never, only some of the time, most of the time, just about always?

Government is almost always wasteful and inefficient or Government often does a better job than people give it credit if for.

The government today is pretty much run by a few big interests looking out for themselves” or The government is really run for the benefit of all the people.

External Efficacy

There are many ways for the average citizen to influence what the government does. Or The average citizen doesn’t have much say about what the government does.

In the end, it is the people who have the final say about how our country is run. Or If public officials are not interested in hearing what the people think, there is really no way to make them listen.

Satisfaction with Democracy

On the whole, how satisfied are you with the way democracy works in the United States—not at all satisfied, not very satisfied, fairly satisfied, satisfied.

Presidential Approval

Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Bush is handling his job as president?

Congressional Approval

Do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Congress has been handling its job?

Relative Distance

We hear a lot of talk these days about liberals and conservatives. Here is a seven-point scale on which the political views that people might hold are arranged from extremely liberal to extremely conservative.

Where would you place yourself on this scale, or haven't you thought much about this?

Where would you place the Republican Party on this scale?

Where would you place the Democratic Party on this scale?

Partisanship

Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or what?

November 2004 Florida Survey

Preference for Control of Government (Non-Separable Preferences)

“When the president is a Republican, do you prefer that the Democrats control Congress or that the Republicans control Congress?”

When the president is a Democrat, do you prefer that the Democrats control Congress or that the Republicans control Congress?

Preference for Control of Government (Separable Preferences)

Do you think it is better when one party controls both the presidency and Congress, better when control is split between the Democrats and Republicans, or doesn't it matter?

Relative Distance

We hear a lot of talk these days about liberals and conservatives. On a scale of one through seven, where 1 is very liberal and 7 is very conservative, where would you place yourself on this scale or haven't you thought much about this?

On this same scale, where 1 is very liberal and 7 is very conservative, where would you place the Republican Party?

And where would you place the Democratic Party?

Partisanship

Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or what?

Presidential Approval

Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Bush is handling his job as president?

Congressional Approval

Do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Congress has been handling its job?

Multinomial Logit Estimates of the Preference for Control of Government (Non-Conditional Preference Measure) 2000 and 2004 ANES.

ANES 2000 / ANES 2004
Unified / Doesn’t Matter / Unified / Doesn’t Matter
Democratic Partisanship
Republican Partisanship
Strength of Partisanship
Follow Politics
Political Sophistication
Political Trust
External Efficacy
Satisfied w/Democracy
Presidential Approval
Congressional Approval
Between Parties
Interparty Distance
Constant
N=
Log Likelihood
χ2 (df in parenthesis) / -.215
(.439)
-.465
(.446)
.624**
(.210)
.159
(.112)
-.057
(.076)
-.138**
(.038)
-.022
(.046)
.175
(.126)
-.054
(.068)
-.110*
(.063)
-.613**
(.231)
.133*
(.077)
-1.202*
734
1452.61
82.94**(24) / -.419
(.484)
-.064
(.480)
.177
(.238)
.066
(.127)
-.135
(.086)
-.023
(.043)
-.125**
(.019)
-.078
(.138)
-.029
(.074)
-.066
(.074)
-.389
(.264)
.077
(.087)
.404
734
1452.61
82.94**(24) / -.488
(.431)
-.169
(.433)
.578**
(.204)
.185
(.115)
.045
(.082)
-.080
(.169)
-.150**
(.048)
.021
(.131)
.184**
(.067)
-.011
(.049)
.036
(.454)
.049
(.066)
-2.138**
777
1492.84
95.65**(24) / .443
(.445)
.963**
(.465)
-.155
(.218)
-.059
(.121)
-.235**
(.087)
-.119
(.186)
-.045
(.055)
-.041
(.150)
-.002
(.068)
.041
(.056)
.484
(.392)
-.107
(.074)
.764
777
1492.84
95.65**(24)
Preference for divided government is the excluded model.
Standard errors are in parentheses.
*p<.10; **p<.05

Source: 2000 and 2004 American National Election Study surveys.

Multinomial Logit Estimates of the Preference for Control of Government (Non-Separable Preferences Measure), 2001 [DELETED FOR CONFIDENTIALITY]

Unified Control / DemocraticControl / RepublicanControl / Doesn’t Matter
Democratic Partisanship
Republican Partisanship
Strength of Partisanship
Follow Politics
Political Sophistication
Political Trust
External Efficacy
Satisfied w/Democracy
Presidential Approval
Congressional Approval
Between Parties
Interparty Distance
Constant
N= 615
Log Likelihood=1451.79
χ2 (df in parenthesis)380.39** (40) / -1.403**
(.601)
-.481
(.574)
.754**
(.296)
.270
(.174)
.019
(.103)
.005
(.050)
-.028
(.052)
.046
(.182)
.301**
(.098)
-.111
(.097)
-.595*
(.322)
.140
(.100)
-3.791** / 0.701
(.597)
-1.734**
(.727)
1.007**
(.310)
.333*
(.178)
.155
(.101)
-.016
(.054)
.103*
(.051)
-.052
(.167)
-.322**
(.097)
.031
(.100)
-.461
(.339)
-.050
(.098)
-3.880** / -2.792**
(.733)
-.365
(.610)
1.419**
(.325)
.215
(.198)
.029
(.116)
-.107*
(.054)
-.005
(.054)
.278
(.203)
.544**
(.126)
-.173*
(.105)
-.623*
(.3343
.315**
(.108)
-6.864 / -1.172
(.896)
-.153
(.801)
.006
(.424)
.347
(.223)
-.128
(.144)
-.086
(.070)
-.016
(.074)
.465*
(.279)
.229
(.145)
.170
(.144)
-.823
(.507)
.034
(.151)
-3.430**
Preference for divided government is the excluded model.
Standard errors are in parentheses.
*p<.10; **p<.05.

Source: [DELETED FOR CONFIDENTIALITY].

Logistic Regression Estimates of the Probability of Casting a Split Ballot: President/House

Model 1 / Model 2
Partisan Identification
Presidential Approval
Congressional Approval
Democratic Incumbent
Presidential Approval*PID
Congressional Approval*PID
Democratic Incumbent*PID
Between Parties
Interparty Distance
Education
Unified Control (Conditional)
Democratic Control (Conditional)
Republican Control (Conditional)
Unified Control (NES)
Unified Control*Education
Democratic Control*Education
Republican Control* Education
Unified Control (NES)*Education
Constant
N
-2 Log Likelihood
X2
NagelKerke R2 / -2.693**
(.892)
-1.469**
(.502)
1.087**
(.432)
-.983
(.740)
1.708**
(.583)
-.054
(.485)
-1.827**
(.866)
.151
(1.000)
.027
(.190)
-.059
(.373)
-6.535**
(3.048)
-1.077
(1.509)
-4.647*
(2.479)
-----
2.560**
(1.038)
-.107
(.531)
1.519*
(.783)
-----
.724
(1.399)
170
102.591
61.852**
.492 / -2.527**
(.807)
-1.270**
(.386)
.782**
(.341)
-.526
(.662)
1.160**
(.430)
.223
(.385)
-1.465*
(.826)
.-.037
(.958)
.109
(.185)
.342
(.243)
-----
-----
-----
-1.285
(1.714)
-----
-----
------
.293
(.607)
-.893
(1.137)
170
117.57
46.87**
.389
Standard errors are in the parentheses
*=p<.10; **p<.05

Source:[DELETED FOR CONFIDENTIALITY]

Logistic Regression Estimates of the Probability of Casting a Split Ballot: President/Senate.

Model 1 / Model 2
Partisan Identification
Presidential Approval
Congressional Approval
Presidential Approval*PID
Congressional Approval*PID
Between Parties
Interparty Distance
Education
Unified Control (Conditional)
Democratic Control (Conditional)
Republican Control (Conditional)
Unified Control (NES)
Unified Control*Education
Democratic Control*Education
Republican Control*Education
Unified (NES)*Education
Constant
N
-2 Log Likelihood
X2
NagelKerke R2 / -3.056**
(1.162)
-.319
(.411)
.556
(.342)
.728
(.463)
.464
(.384)
-.143
(.1.581)
.147
(.185)
1.836**
(.668)
5.292**
(2.604)
6.984**
(2.987)
4.142
(2.606)
-----
-1.911**
(.927)
-2.957**
(1.164)
-1.712**
(.812)
-----
-7.882**
(2.598)
202
101.149
29.30**
.284 / -2.446**
(.007)
-.325
(.357)
.479
(.309)
.724*
(.385)
.255
(.348)
-.062
(1.233)
.206
(.178)
.576**
(.285)
-----
-----
-----
.248
(1.531)
-----
-----
-----
-.340
(.545)
-4.084**
(1.308)
202
114.866
15.58**
.156
Standard errors are in the parentheses
*=p<.10; **p<.05

Source:[DELETED FOR CONFIDENTIALITY].