What brand is being advertised? What was the plot (simply stated)?
Who is the intended audience for the ad?
Did this ad alienate/anger you (or others in your group)?
Your feelings about the ad…quick phrase or sentence
Do you expect that this ad will produce a stock jump for the company?
Super Bowl Ad-Watching As Stock Strategy
According to Kenneth Kim, the lead researcher of the study and associate professor at SUNY-Buffalo, companies that produce the 10 most-liked ads (according to USA Today’s survey, published the Monday after the big game) see an average outperformance of 0.26% in the first day following, compared to the day’s action in the S&P 500. Those that produce the least-liked ads show are up 0.01% when compared with the broader market. The study looked at ads ranked in USA Today’s annual post-game poll between 1989 and 2005 (the research began in 2006, which is why the last few Super Bowls aren’t included.)
“The statistical evidence shows that those commercials they feel positive towards, they also feel positive toward those firms that represent those commercials,” Mr. Kim says. “It’s sort of like a used car. We’re drawn to the used car that’s the most clean, when there’s clearly no correlation between car cleanliness and car quality…it doesn’t mean the company should be a good stock pick.”
This outperformance continues through the week — and the next month. Those included in the list of the top 10 showed an outperformance of 2.98% over the 20 trading days following the Super Bowl. Mr. Kim believes the gains are suggestive of a heightened awareness of a particular product — even if sales of the particular product advertised do not increase.
Oddly enough, those ads identified as the 10 least-liked also showed an outperformance, bettering the market by 1.47% over the next 20 days. That’s not as good as the top performers, but it’s a silver lining to whichever unfortunate ad campaign proves the biggest head-scratcher. “Just the fact that they remember it, it just jogs their memory, so a commercial they hated, they’re still thinking about it the next day,” Mr. Kim says.
As for those that don’t rank in the top or bottom 10? They’re forgotten about, Mr. Kim says. So if you’re not going to produce a winner, make sure it’s a spectacular failure.
Your Assignment for Monday:
1. Watch the Super Bowl (I’m sorry, I know you don’t want to).
2. For 5 commercials, complete the chart on the back.
The game begins at 5:30 on FOX. The Super Bowl Commercials start to air during the later hours of the pregame show, so if you want to get this done before the game begins, watch the pregame show around 4 pm.
Other options: DVR the game OR watch Super Bowl Commercials online.