Press Coverage
Domestic
June 26
-Huffington Post- -analysis on US interests in Iran
June 27
-Investor Insight- -analysis on the recession with mention of George quarterly conversation piece
- Reprint: Gold Seek
June 28
-Antiwar- -analysis on the Iranian elections
-Market News International- see Nexis- analysis on the congressional elections in Argentina
June 29
-Human Events Online- –analysis on Iranian elections
-Oped News- on the Iranian elections
- Reprint: The Peoples Voice, Mathaba, Bay Area Indymedia, Counter Currents, Baltimore Chronicle & Sentinel
-New York Times- on the Argentine congressional elections with Karen interview
-NPR- –analysis on bids for Iraqi oil and Peter interview
-American Conservative Magazine- -analysis on Zelaya’s ousting from Honduras
-Real Clear World- -reprint of members only analysis on Zelaya’s ousting fromHonduras
-Contempo Mag- -reprint of geopol weekly on the power struggle among Iranian elites
-Market News International- see Nexis- analysis on the congressional elections in Argentina (duplicate article from yesterday)
-Business Insider- -analysis on China’s banking troubles
June 30
-NPR article reprint with analysis on bids for Iraqi oil with Peter interview: 89.3 KPCC
-USA Today- -analysis on post-election Iran and future US relations
- Reprint: The Jacksonville Observer, AZ Central
-American Conservative Magazine- -analysis on US/Russo relations citing George’s Coming War With Japan
-NPR-
–analysis on bids for Iraqi oil and Peter interview (reprint of duplicate article from yesterday)
July 1
-The Trumpet- –analysis on the struggle for power between the Iranian elite
-Real News Network- –analysis on the power struggle among Iranian elite
-Gather- –reprint of geopol weekly on the power struggle among Iranian elite
International
June 26
-Vesti (Kazakhstan)- -analysis on US/EU reaction to Chinese stockpiling
-Business Spectator (Australia)- –reprint of members only analysis on US/EU reaction to Chinese stockpiling
-VOA article reprint with analysis on the Iranian elections with Reva interview:
Payvand(Iran), VOA (Serbia), VOA (Turkey), Usakgundem (Turkey), Thai Press Reports (Thailand)
-Ottawa Citizen (Canada)- -analysis on the Iranian elections
-VOA (Russia)- -analysis on Russian/Turkish relations
-Sabah (Turkey)- -analysis on the Iranian elections
- Reprint: Takvim (Turkey)
June 27
-VOA article reprint with analysis on the Iranian elections with Reva interview: Usakgundem (Turkey)
-Britské listy (Czech Republic)- -analysis on the Iranian elections
-TRKHaber(Turkey)- –analysis on Iranian elections citing Reva interview from VOA
-Investor Insight article reprint with analysis on the recession with mention of George quarterly conversation piece: Market Oracle (UK)
June 28
-Bizmakoto (Japan)- -analysis on the Japanese economy
-VOA article reprint with analysis on the Iranian elections with Reva interview: Haber 10 (Turkey)
-Sina article reprint with analysis on the Iranian elections citing Reva interview from VOA: Xinmin Weekly (China)
June 29
-Investor Insight article reprint with analysis on the recession with mention of George quarterly conversation piece: FX Street (Spain)
-Enet (Greece)- –analysis on the Iranian elections
-Wiener Zeitung (Austria)- –analysis on TN100Y
-Business Spectator (Australia)- –analysis on Chinese resource stockpiling with link to reprint of members only analysis
-Mercator Net(Australia)- -reprint of geopol weekly on the power struggle among Iranian elite
June 30
-América Economía (Chile)- –analysis on the ousting of Zelaya from Honduras
-Campaign Iran (UK)- -reprint of geopol weekly on Iran and the revolution test
-World Socialist Website (France)- -analysis on Zelaya’s ousting from Honduras
- Reprint: Center for Research on Globalization (Canada)
-ZIUA(Romania)- –analysis on the Iranian elections
-Oped News article reprint with analysis on the Iranian elections: Center for Research on Globalization (Canada)
-World Socialist Website (France)- -analysis on Iranian elections (translated article)
-World Socialist Website (France)- on Iranian elections (translated article)
-World Socialist Website (France)- -analysis on Zelaya’s ousting from Honduras
-Yalibnan (Lebanon)- -reprint of geopol weekly on Iran and the revolution test
July 1
-DAWN (Pakistan)- -analysis on Iranian elections
-Oped News article reprint with analysis on the Iranian elections: Center for Research on Globalization (Canada – duplicate article from yesterday)
-Business Weekly (Taiwan)- –analysis on TN100Y
-La Jornada (México)- –analysis on Brazilian oil deals
-VOA article reprint with analysis on Russian/Turkish relations: InoСМИ (Russia), Centrasia (Russia)
-Kipp Report (France)- -analysis on conflict between Saudi elite
-Capital Madrid (Spain)- -analysis on Zelaya’s ousting from Honduras
-Foreign Policy Journal article reprint with analysis on US role in destabilizing Iran and Fred interview from Telegraph: Altermonde-sans-frontières (France)
-Get Reading article reprint with mention of Colin interview about Reading, England: Get Bracknell (UK), Wokingham Times (UK), Reading Post (UK)
Blogs
June 26
-Naked Capitalism- link to members only analysis on Japan recession
-Medienanalyse-international- -mentioned somewhere in blog
-Leighton Smith- -link to members only analysis on the recession in Japan
June 27
None
June 28
-Survival Blog- -reprint of security weekly on security in places of worship
June 29
-Cafebabel- -analysis on the Iranian elections
-Free Republic- -partial reprint and link to geopol weekly on the power struggle among Iranian elite
June 30
-Extra Good Shit Blog- –link to geopol weekly on the power struggle among Iranian elite
-Obsidian Wings- -reprint of geopol weekly on the power struggle among Iranian elite
-Avanturist- –link to insights video on US/Russo relations
-Robert amsterdam- -embed of insights video on US/Russo relations
-Investors Iraq- –analysis on bids on Iraqi oil
July 1
-Sammy Boy Blog- -mentioned somewhere on blog (direct link only available with membership)
Nexis
Market News International
June 28, 2009 Sunday 10:54 PM GMT
Argentina's Kirchners Face Loss in Key Congressional Election
LENGTH: 1130 words
DATELINE: BUENOS AIRES
--Businessman de Narvaez Leads with 34.9% of Votes for Buenos Aires
--Nestor Kirchner Trails With 32%; 40% of Votes Counted
By Charles Newbery
Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner and her husband Sunday were losing a congressional election in a key district by a wider-than-expected margin, a result that likely will cost them their majority in both house and make it harder to implement policies.
Nestor Kirchner, who preceded his wife as president, and their Front for Victory party were trailing with 32% of the votes for seats in the lower house of Congress representing Buenos Aires province, the country's biggest voting district.
Francisco de Narvaez, a 55-year-old millionaire, was leading with 34.9%, according to official results from the National Electoral Department with 40% of the votes counted.
Argentina uses proportional representation for the congressional elections, so the more votes a party wins, the more seats it is allotted, with the spots going to those at the top of the party ticket first. The winners will take seats Dec. 10.
The midterm congressional elections will fill for half the 256-seat lower house and a third of the 72 seats in the Senate in an vote billed as a referendum on the Kirchners, who have ruled the country since 2003.
Nestor packed his ticket with big names like Buenos Aires Gov. Daniel Scioli -- a potential presidential contender -- to try to hold onto a majority in both houses of Congress to help his wife implement policies and to fuel his own political ambitions.
The Kirchners populist policies helped Argentina recover from a 2001-02 economic crash with 6-9% annual growth between 2003 and 2008 only to see it fall apart last year.
CFK is now facing the tough challenge of reviving a shrinking economy tainted by double-digit inflation and steady capital flight as investors pull out disheartened by price controls, high taxes, state intervention, volatile regulations and the threat of nationalization.
The wider-than-expected loss may hit the first couple hard, Jorge Giacobbe, a pollster in Buenos Aires, said ahead of the election.
"If Nestor loses, that's it, that's the end for the Kirchners," he said.
Other Districts
In other key districts, the Kirchners' candidates were running in second, third and even fourth, raising prospects of a poor national result and the loss of their majority in both houses.
Gabriela Michetti was winning the race for lower house seats for Buenos AiresCity, garnering 31% with two-thirds of the votes counted. She is aligned with de Narvaez and Buenos Aires Mayor Mauricio Macri, another opposition presidential hopeful.
Carlos Reutemann led in his reelection bid for senator of Santa Fe province, a result expected to pave the way for him to run for president in 2011 on the Peronist ticket, now headed by Nestor Kirchner.
Reutemann, a former car race driver, likely will woo support from key governors, relegating the Kirchners within the party, Carlos Germano, a political analyst in Buenos Aires, said last week.
In Mendoza province, Ernesto Sanz led the Senate race for a party aligned with Vice President Julio Cobos, another potential presidential candidate who has been estranged from CFK since he voted against her crop export tax initiative last year, forcing the president to scrap it.
In Cordoba province, Luis Juez the Senate race. He is aligned with Elisa Carrio, who has run for president twice, coming a distant second against CFK in 2007.
Economic Challenges
No matter the result, the CFK government faces an economy expected to contract by 2% to 3% this year with 15% annual inflation and the problems of capital flight and a dearth of credit.
"We need fresh funds to emerge from this crisis," said Fausto Spotorno, chief economist at Orlando Ferreres & Asociados in Buenos Aires.
About $46 billion in capital has left the country since 2007, equivalent to 18% of GDP estimated this year at $260 billion. The pace is expected to continue at $4 billion a quarter until there is a return of investor confidence, Spotorno said. He expects the economy to contract 5% this year before expanding by 1-2% in 2010.
"The government has been putting off a lot of decisions and spinning news to make things look better than they are," said Karen Hooper, senior Latin American analyst at Stratfor, a global intelligence company in Austin, Texas. "Now they need to make hard decisions."
These include ending price caps and a fixing a volatile business environment, including the threat of nationalizing private investments.
The country also needs to regain access to international financial markets, Spotorno said.
Argentina has been isolated since a 2001 default on nearly $100 billion, the sovereign debt default in world history. To reconnect with foreign markets the nation must resolve more than $20 billion in debt still owed to bondholders and more than $6.3 billion to the Paris Club of wealthy creditor nations.
One option would be to rebuild relations with the International Monetary Fund, which were severed under Nestor Kirchner when the country paid off its debt to free itself from the fund's prescription for austerity to achieve sustainable economic growth.
"It is hard to imagine the Argentina of the Kirchners complying with IMF guidelines," Hooper said.
Instead, it has been scratching to keep on top of its debt payments. It has swapped existing debt for securities with longer maturities and borrowed from within its own government to make repayments on time and finance public works.
This is having an adverse effect on the economy because the state is crowding out the private sector from credit to build business, Spotorno said.
CFK has shown willingness to make changes by raising taxes and peeling back some of its control on utility rates. But her government continues to fiddle with economic data to achieve growth and inflation targets, a turnoff for investment.
The government will have to make "a radical change" and impose market-friendly policies to bring back investment so the economy is no longer consuming more than it can afford, Hooper said.
But "the kind of austerity measures that are needed are political suicide to take" because of the impact on jobs and purchasing power, she said.
If nothing is done, however, the threat of another debt default will remain on the horizon.
While that may be a last-ditch decision, it will be harder to keep fiscal accounts in balance as income and export tax revenue declines with the slowing economy and weak exports, which are suffering from the global economic crisis and low commodities prices.
So cuts may have to be made. And that may mean a cut on sovereign debt payments, Hooper said.
For investors, she said, this means that "the status quo of being very scared of Argentina will remain."