Appendix a - Comparing the Provision of Ecosystem Services in Plantation Forests Under

Appendix A - Comparing the provision of ecosystem services in plantation forests under alternative climate change adaptation management options in Wales

Figure 1A Schema of five dynamically coupled British forest models (Ecological Site Classification-Pyatt et al 2001, ForestGALES - Gardiner and Quine 2000, Forest Yield – Edwards and Christie 1981, ASORT – Matthews and Mackie 2006, and BSORT – McKay 2003) to simulate plantation forest planning, management, thinning and felling in Wales, with outputs transformed to a set of 9 indicator variables (carbon stocks, wind risk damage score, recreation, biodiversity, timber production, biomass production, small wood production, employment (interventions), tree species suitability)

1

Table 1A Key attributes of the UK National Ecosystem Assessment scenarios and their correspondence to forest policy and the adaptation trajectories simulated in the study
Go with the flow / National security / Green & pleasant land / Nature@work / World markets / Local stewardship
Governance / Mix of EU and national policy with shift of focus to ES delivery and climate change adaptation. Continued support for woodland creation / Trade barriers and protectionist policies for UK interests. Subsidies for timber production / Strong global and EU conservation and biodiversity obligations / Strong EU links, but focus on ecosystem function rather than biodiversity. Strong policy prescription and environmental incentives / Deregulated markets, few environmental policies or incentives for ES delivery / Devolution to local governments
Species composition / Increase in native species, reduction in exotic conifer / Switch to high yield exotic conifers. Tree breeding and GM used / Nativeness important. Reduction in conifer, replaced by broadleaves / Adaptability more important thatnativeness. Increase broadleaf cover for recreation and biodiversity / Focus on productive conifer and SRF species / More high yield exotic conifers and increase in native species adjacent to ANSW. Site suitability dictates choice
Forest industry importance / UK forest industry decline - pulp and paper imported / Important sector for sustainable supply / Reduced industry focus - objectives for conservation and recreation / Important for sustainable supply / No interest / Local focus
Recreation / Greater public access to woodlands supported by amendments to legislation / Reduction due to lower aesthetic appeal and people having less time and resources / Increase particularly associated with ASNW / Increase particularly in private woodlands / Not important / Silviculture focus impacts upon recreation, but many woods incorporate trails
Biodiversity / Declines from climate change and invasives. Policy still supports biodiversity / Little regard to ASNW / Static, preservationist conservation / Conservation policies maintained, although may be trade-offs for other ES / Not important - declines in most habitats / Important with landscape and less intensive management
Woodland management / Sustainable forest management / Sustainable forest management, focus on conifer plantations / Sustainable forest management, conservation focus / Sustainable forest management and LISS / Unmanaged with abandonment / Sustainable forest management
Timber / Very little produced or managed in UK due to cheap imports / Dramatic increase due to larger woodland area and better adapted species / Focus on high quality timber, but woodlands mostly for conservation / Home-grown timber encouraged and supported by the public / Surviving woods are intensively managed for timber / Increased forest production and restoration of farm woodlands
Woodland location / Similar to current distribution / Conifer plantations increase substantially in upland areas / Increase of native woodlands in the uplands / Expansion close to and within major conurbations to provide multiple ES benefits / Contraction around conurbations due to urban development - presumption for woodland continuation removed / Increase close to communities and traditional wooded regions like SE England
Simulation
Trajectory / Business as usual / Diversity / Short rotation forestry / Low Impact Silviculture

1

Table 2A Ecosystem goods and services and transformation indices from the dynamic simulation: TD17 - sawlog volume > 0.17 m diameter (m3 ha-1); Biom – Harvestable biomass (tonne ha-1); Other – Volume of small wood ≤ 0.17 m diameter (m3 ha-1); Car – Above ground carbon stock (tonne C. ha-1); WDRS – wind damage risk score from ForestGALES (1 low – 6 High); Suit – area weighted ecological suitability score of forest from Ecological Site Classification ( 0 low – 1 High); Rec – Area weighted recreation index (1 low – 10 High); Biod – Area weighted potential biodiversity score (0.5 Low – 7.5 High); Op – Mean number of operations per decade (0 Low – 3 High), detail of methods described in Appendix B (supplementary material)

Code / (1) Ecosystem goods and services indicators and (2) transformation indices / Explanation / Notes and references
TD17 / Timber production (1) / Sawlog volume above diameter class 0.17m (m3/ha) / ASORT - Forest Mensuration Handbook (2006)
Biom / Biomass production (1) / Harvestable biomass (tonnes/ha) / BSORT – McKay et al (2003), Revised biomass equations (unpublished report)
Other / Small wood (1) / Volume in of small logs 0.01-0.17 m diameter class (m3/ha) / BSORT – McKay et al (2003), Revised biomass equations (unpublished report)
Car / Carbon stocks (1) / Total above ground carbon (tonnes C/ ha) / half the total biomass value
WDRS / Wind damage risk score (2) / Weighted mean wind risk scores (1 - 6 per decade) from ForestGALES for the decadal interval / ForestGALES - Gardiner and Quine (2000)
Suit / Ecological suitability score (2) / Weighted mean index of tree species suitability for the forest sites (soil and climate) for the decade (score 0 -1 per decade) / ESC - Ray (2001), Broadmeadow et al (2005)
Rec / Recreation potential score (1) / Weighted mean index scores (1 - 10 per decade) based on a function of sub-compartment (tree) age FMA type and broad forest habitat type. / Edwards et al (2011), Edwards et al (2012)
Biod / Biodiversity potential score (1) / Weighted mean index score (0.5 - 7.5 per decade) based on management type and stand age of all database components within a sub-compartment. / Unpublished FC report, following method by Humphrey et al (2002, 2004)
Op / Operations employment potential (1) / Mean number of operations (0 - 3 per ha) includes thinning, respacing, felling and planting in time period / Unpublished FC reports

Table 3A Simulation management trajectories and the rules for converting Forest Management Alternatives (FMA) and species choice through transformation to the low impact silviculture systems (LISS), short rotation forestry (SRF), and species diversity (DIV) adaptation management trajectories, FMA 1 is Natural Reserve, FMA 2 is Close to Nature, FMA 3 is Multi-purpose, FMA 4 is Intensive even-aged. (Note FMA percentages do not sum to 100% as open space is not shown)

Adaptation trajectories / FMA Proportions (%) in order of decreasing cover / Tree species groups (%) / Rules
Business as usual (BAU) / Actual FMA 5 Clocaenog = 0% Actual FMA 5Gwydyr = 0%
Actual FMA 4 Clocaenog = 70% Actual FMA 4 Gwydyr = 68% Actual FMA 3 Clocaenog = 28% Actual FMA 3 Gwydyr = 31% Actual FMA 2 Clocaenog = 0% Actual FMA 2 Gwydyr = 0% / Gwydyr - spruce= 42, pine=8, fir=4, larch 3, other conifer=2, broadleaf= 9, open space=27 Clocaenog- spruce=63, pine=4, fir=2, larch=2, other conifer=1, broadleaf=7, open space=20 / Thinning in sub-compartments where DAMS < 16. For no thin sub-compartments replace existing species at year 50. For thinning sub-compartments start at year 20 and then every 5 years to year 50, then fell and replace. All brash left on site after thinnings and fellings. Sub-compartments over 50 years old allocated to FMA 3 and felled at year 100.
Tree species diversity (DIV) / Potential FMA 5 Clocaenog = 0% Potential FMA 5Gwydyr = 0%
Potential FMA 4 Clocaenog = 70% Potential FMA 4 Gwydyr = 68% Potential FMA 3 Clocaenog = 28% Potential FMA 3 Gwydyr = 31% Potential FMA 2 Clocaenog = 0% Potential FMA 2 Gwydyr = 0% / Wider range of species than BAU. See results for species details selected by climate variant in the simulation / Continue with the same FMA allocation as in BAU, only species allowed to change at time of felling. The most suitable species for the sub-compartment site conditions (soil and climate) for the rotation is chosen. No particular preference made for broadleaved trees or native trees. Sub-compartments over 50 years old allocated to FMA 3 and felled at year 100. FMA 3 includes Norway spruce and Scots pine maintained for red squirrel conservation.
Short rotation forestry (SRF) / Potential FMA 5 Clocaenog = 65% Potential FMA 5 Gwydyr = 63%
Potential FMA 4 Clocaenog = 19% Potential FMA 4 Gwydyr = 21%
Potential FMA 3 Clocaenog = 15% Potential FMA 3 Gwydyr = 15%
Potential FMA 2 Clocaenog = 0% Potential FMA 2 Gwydyr = 0% / Tree species mix continues through the simulation as for BAU / All other sub-compartments are felled at year 25. No sub-compartments are thinned, except for Norway spruce and Scots pine stands classified as FMA 3 for red squirrel conservation on a 100 year rotation. FMA 4 sub-compartment older than 25 years at the start of the simulation are felled and transformed to FMA 5 at year 50. Brash is not removed from sub-compartments where the SNR is Very Poor, or where SMR is Wet or Very Wet and these sites are not transformed to FMA5.
Low impact silvicultural systems (LISS) / Potential FMA 5 Clocaenog = 0% Potential FMA 5Gwydyr = 0%
Potential FMA 4 Clocaenog = 83% Potential FMA 4 Gwydyr = 37% Potential FMA 3 Clocaenog = 9% Potential FMA 3 Gwydyr = 6%
Potential FMA 2 Clocaenog = 7% Potential FMA 2 Gwydyr = 56% / Tree species mix continues through the simulation as for BAU / Sub-compartments with DAMS < =14 are marked for FMA2 for conversion at year 50 - grow to year 50 then thin to half the basal area. For DAMS>14 and <= 16 thin as for FMA 4 in BAU. Sub-compartments older than 50 years classified as FMA 3 and grown to 100 years before felling. All brash left on site after thinnings and fellings. Sub-compartments over 50 years old allocated to FMA 3 and felled at year 100. FMA 3 includes Norway spruce and Scots pine maintained for red squirrel conservation.

Table 4A Species composition in each forest for the species diversity (DIV) trajectory at the starting point in 2010, and at 2080 for each of the 11-RCM variants and the baseline climate. Each variant is classified using a moisture deficit range, as M=moist MD (<180), D = Dry(>=180 and < =200), VD = very dry(>200), based on a typical site for each forest

Clocaenog / Climate variant / Spruce % / Pine % / Larch % / Fir % / Other Conifer % / Broadleaf %
Start 2010 / 86 / 3 / 5 / 2 / 0 / 4
M 2080 / 3Q0 / 45 / 22 / 0 / 8 / 17 / 8
VD / 3q3 / 13 / 37 / 0 / 2 / 38 / 10
D / 3q4 / 17 / 31 / 0 / 7 / 35 / 9
M / 3q6 / 45 / 22 / 0 / 8 / 17 / 8
D / 3q8 / 18 / 31 / 0 / 7 / 35 / 9
M / 3q9 / 45 / 22 / 0 / 8 / 17 / 8
M / 3q11 / 38 / 21 / 0 / 8 / 25 / 8
M / 3q13 / 39 / 21 / 0 / 7 / 25 / 8
D / 3q14 / 28 / 22 / 0 / 7 / 35 / 8
D / 3q16 / 13 / 31 / 0 / 4 / 42 / 10
D / 3qK / 15 / 31 / 0 / 7 / 37 / 9
M / Baseline / 45 / 16 / 8 / 23 / 0 / 8
Gwydyr
Start 2010 / 55 / 12 / 10 / 6 / 2 / 14
D 2080 / 3Q0 / 36 / 7 / 0 / 27 / 12 / 18
VD / 3q3 / 6 / 23 / 0 / 6 / 47 / 18
D / 3q4 / 12 / 12 / 0 / 27 / 31 / 18
M / 3q6 / 43 / 7 / 0 / 26 / 7 / 18
D / 3q8 / 12 / 10 / 0 / 21 / 39 / 18
M / 3q9 / 41 / 7 / 0 / 26 / 8 / 18
D / 3q11 / 36 / 7 / 0 / 27 / 12 / 18
M / 3q13 / 32 / 7 / 0 / 29 / 15 / 18
D / 3q14 / 17 / 7 / 0 / 22 / 36 / 18
VD / 3q16 / 8 / 10 / 0 / 10 / 55 / 18
D / 3qK / 12 / 10 / 0 / 23 / 37 / 18
M / Baseline / 45 / 7 / 1 / 30 / 1 / 18

Figure 2A Changing proportion of Forest Management Alternatives (FMA) projected through each decade of the 21st century for a) Clocaenog and b) Gwydyr, and for four adaptation trajectories: business as usual (BAU), species diversity (DIV), low impact silviculture (LIS), short rotation forestry (SRF)