April 2007 Fast Facts

This may be the best time in history to buy a home in Las Vegas.
April's housing data for Las Vegas, as expected, was a continuation of the housing bottom we have been scraping along for nearly six months.But, for the first time, there appeared to be some minute improvements worth noting.
Despite the negativity of national reports - particularly Fiserv Lending Solutions which has predicted that Las Vegas will be the worst market in the US for housing appreciation this year - pricing in the market remained very stable.
----->In fact, prices for existing homes remained above last year's levels and were an improvement on March's median ($284,900 median).
----->And despite very weak sales, the new home sector also maintained relative price stability ($323,990 median).
Another improvement in the market appeared to be the increase in New Home Permits, a continuation of the trend reversal that began last month.But, this information must be tempered by the knowledge that laws regarding how permits are obtained are in the process of review and change. Builders may be stockpiling in advance of a change in the law.
Nonetheless, the long drought on new home permits may impact the market significantly. In April, we saw a net loss of four new home communities. When you consider that there are 545 active new home subdivisions in the Las Vegas market - the highest per capita in the known universe - that doesn't seem like much.
----->But, now, combine these three facts:
(1) March boasted the highest number of new home subdivisions in Las Vegas history.
(2) The number of new home subdivisions had been growing steadily since 2005.
(3) New home permits are off 48.2% for the year.
Somehow, that very slight decline in the number of new home subdivisions assumes slightly greater importance.It is possible that we are seeing the first downturn in new home inventory. However, the same cannot be said for the resale market, which is at a record high 24,038 units.Until there is a downturn in new home inventory, resale--the number of active new home communities--existing home inventory will remain relatively high.
Still another improvement in the market is relative stability in sales numbers. While it is true that both new and existing home sales were well below last year's levels (40.2% and 30.3% respectively), both segments of the traditional market were at similar sales level as the previous month. Other analysts have pointed to the lack of the usual seasonal sales uptick in the month of April and have called these sales results "dismal."
Of course, they are correct in that assessment. The 1,548 new home sales and 2,489 existing home sales are dismal for April. But, the fact that we haven't slipped lower is one more sign that we may be on a real rather than a false bottom.
----->We are not suggesting that a rebound is around the corner. What we think these statistics suggest is that we may have begun the long, laborious process of returning to normalcy.
April's statistics underscored another important point: Vertical construction is becoming more and more powerful as an element in the housing market. Based on the statistics in Fast Facts and our own research, the number of Vertical units closed in 2007 will easily be 30-50% more than last year. We will certainly see 5,000 closings of Vertical product this year.
You can look at the glass half empty or you can look at the glass half full.The way we see it, right now the Las Vegas real estate industry needs a drink!

Respectfully submitted,
Larry Murphy Steve Bottfeld
SalesTraq Marketing Solutions