Toruń Model United Nations 2015 | 25th – 27th of September 2015
Forum: Environment Commission
Issue: Measures to warrant smooth transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy
sources
Student Officer: Daniel Dulla
Position: Chair of Environment Commission
Introduction:
Ever since the industrial revolution took off in the 1800´s, fossil fuels have been used to power economies and bring prosperity around the globe. This prosperity, however, comes at aprice, the price, which is to be paid by us, and generations to come. From transport to heating our homes, manufacturing and utilizing everyday items, fossil fuels have become asubstantial part of our lives, also affecting all sectors of national economies, because of the reliability, and availability of energy they present. We have become used to acertain standard of life, brought on by these conveniently exploitable resources and there is no way we can begin to imagine not being able to flip alight switch, or turn on the stove.
An overwhelming scientific consensus assuredly points towards fossil fuel usage as one of the main culprits causing global climate change, and achange in our ways is inevitable, should we want to avoid a global cataclysm. Regretfully, it has become common practice for politicians to argue with experts, and instead of debating ways to tackle the issue, to debate whether there is an issue in the first place. It is, of course, understandable, since the experts will naturally seek to implement astrategy, which will prevent acatastrophe of anatural character, such as extinction of species, or the rise of the ocean levels, whilst the men of power will seek apath, which will not hurt the markets.
One does, therefore need to bear in mind the possible cost of several scenarios which may take place in said pursuance; first, should the transition occur too fast, global economy would be drained and weakened, causing acrisis. The second, atransition which is too slow may once again cause the weakening of the global economy via problems emerging from the fossil fuel use (e.g. the consequences of global climate change). The transition must be set to an optimal rate, which will prevent further irreversible damage to ecosystems, as well as a monetary crisis.
In the present day, possibilities of producing renewable energy are great, and more are created every year. Solar, hydro, wind, tidal, wave, geothermal, biomass, and perhaps, in the future arguably even nuclear fusion, just to name a few. A way must be found to significantly implement renewables into everyday lives of all citizens, and to slowly, but steadily move away from hydrocarbon use.
Definition of Key Terms:
FOSSIL FUEL
“Fossil fuels are hydrocarbons, primarily coal, fuel oil or natural gas, formed from the remains of dead plants and animals. Fossil fuel is a general term for buried combustible geologic deposits of organic materials, formed from decayed plants and animals that have been converted to crude oil, coal, natural gas, or heavy oils by exposure to heat and pressure in the earth's crust over hundreds of millions of years. The burning of fossil fuels by humans is the largest source of emissions of carbon dioxide, which is one of the greenhouse gases that allows radiative forcing and contributes to global warming.”
NON-RENEWABLE ENERGY
“A nonrenewableresourceis a resource of economic value that cannot be readily replaced by natural means on a level equal to its consumption. Most fossil fuels, such as oil, natural gas and coal are considered nonrenewable resources in that their use is not sustainable because their formation takes billions of years. The term nonrenewable resource also refers to minerals and metals from the earth, such as gold, silver, and iron, which are similarly formed as a long-term result of geological processes such as plate tectonics. Also, nuclear materials such as uranium are nonrenewable resources.”
RENEWABLE ENERGY
"Any energy resource that is naturally regenerated over a short time scale and derived directly from the sun (such as thermal, photochemical, and photoelectric), indirectly from the sun (such as wind, hydropower, and photosynthetic energy stored in biomass), or from other natural movements and mechanisms of the environment (such as geothermal and tidal energy). Renewable energy does not include energy resources derived from fossil fuels, waste products from fossil sources, or waste products from inorganicsources."
GLOBAL CLIMAT CHANGE
“Refers to a change in Earth's average temperature or a change in Earth's typical precipitation patterns. Earth's climate is always changing. In the past, Earth's climate has gone through warmer and cooler periods, each lasting thousands of years. Observations show that Earth's climate has been warming. Its average temperature has risen a little more than one degree Fahrenheit during the past 100 years or so. This amount may not seem like much. But small changes in Earth's average temperature can lead to big impacts. Some causes of climate change are natural. These include changes in Earth's orbit and in the amount of energy coming from the sun. Ocean changes and volcanic eruptions are also natural causes of climate change. Most scientists think that recent warming can't be explained by nature alone. Most scientists say it's very likely that most of the warming since the mid-1900s is due to the burning of coal, oil and gas. Burning these fuels is how we produce most of the energy that we use every day. This burning adds heat-trapping gases, such as carbon dioxide, into the air. These gases are called greenhouse gases.”
Carbon tax: “A carbon tax is a fee imposed on the burning of carbon-based fuels (coal, oil, gas).”
Background information:
Some statistics
Fig. 1*- (https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/global-greenhouse-gas-emissions-data) ( IPCC (2014)) / Fig. 2*- (https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/global-greenhouse-gas-emissions-data) ( IPCC (2014))*As of 2010
The vast majority of greenhouse emissions consist of carbon dioxide emissions are emitted from fossil fuel use. As you can see in Fig. 1, 65% of global carbon dioxide emissions in 2010 came from activities involving hydrocarbon use and their exploitation. That is the greatest factor influencing the earth´s climate, and the factor, which can be eradicated through using sustainable resources. Once examining Fig. 2, you can begin to see which sectors contribute to said emissions most significantly, from which we can understand what steps need to be taken, in order to reduce these emissions in a sufficient manner. 25% of emissions are produced by electricity production and heat production for our homes, burning coal, natural gas and oil making it the single greatest source of emissions in the world. Though in many countries, strategies have been debated, or have already been adapted, using renewable sources for production of ´clean energy´ and heat, it still, regrettably is not sufficient to improve the situation globally. One must understand that any action which should be taken to tackle this arduous issue must be taken by every relevant country and company, bearing in mind, however, that this process is individual for every country, and there is no universal recipe. Next 24% consist of areas and activities closely relating to agriculture and forestry, for example deforestation, or cultivation of crops or livestock. Next 21% is caused by industries; mainly involve burning fossil fuels at sites of factories for energy. Transportation worldwide amounts to 14% of global greenhouse gas emissions. This includes aviation, road transportation, boat transportation, railway transportation, and all other means of transportation which use fossil fuels. The sector which makes up the next 6% of emissions arises from at site heat production (e.g. a boiler, producing heat through fossil fuel burning). This includes heating homes and cooking. Note, that emissions from electricity production for homes have already been subtracted from this column, and added to the first one. Therefore, if one used electric energy to heat their home, their share in this column would be 0. That is why experts in the field advise to direct our attention on the prospects of district heating, which could help cut down emissions produced, through strictly controlled regulations and centralized maintenance. The last 10% is made up of emissions produced when exploiting, handling and transporting natural resources. These are not associated with heat or energy production, yet they are a considerable part of the issue.
Note, that there are several areas of everyday life, which produce a whopping amount of emissions. Unfortunately, with the problem of global climate change being extremely complex, not all of the emissions can be addressed simply by a transition from fossil fuels to renewables, since not all emissions source from fossil fuels, as you can see in Fig. 1. That is, of course a thing one must take into consideration. The focus should however, in this instance be put strictly on emissions created by hydrocarbon use, and therefore ones, which can be addressed by said transition.
Prospect of a carbon tax
Many claim that the implementation of a carbon tax is the only way to effectively curb carbon emissions worldwide. it is rather easily implementable, since although rather potent, carbon´s chemistry is rather simple, and the carbon content of a resource is directly proportionate to the amount of emission which will be produced upon burning it. All the contents have been carefully calculated and tested, therefore it is known precisely how much carbon can be found in each non-renewable resource one can think of. For example, the carbon tax will be higher for coal than for petroleum, since the content of carbon in coal is much greater. Carbon, which shall be used to produce plastics, or other materials, which do not burn the hydrocarbon will not be taxed. Similarly, with methods of energy production, which instead of releasing carbon into the atmosphere will sequester it will not be taxed, or will even receive an offsetting credit. All this means, that the higher we tax the usage of hydrocarbons, the less they will be used, and corporations and governments will be motivated to seek other ways of energy production. In conclusion, placing a tax on carbon emissions may give producers and consumers a monetary incentive to move away from hydrocarbon use.
Fig.3 (https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/)
Fig. 3 shows the fluctuations in Earth´s CO2 over millennia. There are fluctuations, as you may see, occurring approximately every 100.000 years. This gives an opportunity for some to claim, that the current state of our planet´s ecosystem is completely natural and there is nothing to be worried about. However, we can clearly see the graph sky-rocketing right after the start of the industrial revolution in the 1800´s. That means, that even though a fluctuation may be expected around the present day, the levels of CO2 significantly exceed those which could be expected. Therefore, there can be no debate whatsoever about the existence of problems caused by the use of non-renewable resources, only solutions for the transition.
Parties contributing
Fig. 4 (http://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/overview.php?v)
Upon examining Fig. 4, one can easily come to a conclusion, about who the most significant players in the game are. It might also be beneficial to notice the two sides of the graph. On the left hand side, we can see the total amount of emissions from a given country, with international shipping´s and international aviation´s shares included as well. On the right hand side, we can see the emission per capita, which means the total amount of emissions over the number of citizens of a given country. While China, with their 1,3bil citizens does produce the most emissions, the UAE, for example, with their 9,3mil produces a lot more per capita, but it doesn´t amass to as much when added up.
At the top of the list is China, and the United states followed by India. Some find it worrying that many countries along with the aforementioned have not to date shown much initiative, and have remained inactive.
Fig.5(https://b8f65cb373b1b7b15febc70d8ead6ced550b4d987d7c03fcdd1d.ssl.cf3.rackcdn.com/cms/reports/documents/000/002/327/original/Carbon-Majors-Report-2017.pdf?1499691240)
Should an equitable resolution be reached, one must not forget that governments can´t be accounted for all the emissions worldwide. In fact, statistics point to 100 companies worldwide, which are to be blamed for 71% of greenhouse gasses. See Fig. 5 for the list of organizations contributing most significantly. The highest emitting companies since 1988 that are investor-owned include: ExxonMobil, Shell, BP, Chevron, Peabody, Total, and BHP Billiton. Key state-owned companies include Saudi Aramco, Gazprom, National Iranian Oil, Coal India, Pemex, and CNPC (PetroChina). Coal emissions from China are represented by the state, in which key state-owned producers include Shenhua Group, Datong Coal Mine Group, and China National Coal Group.
Is there a future for fossil fuel exploiting companies?
Present day trends suggest that the move to renewable is inevitable. Quite naturally, the parties which make the most money from these energy sources are looking for a way to survive, or even thrive under the given circumstances. Most of them are still, understandably, quite set in their ways, and instead of helping the cause, they fund false studies claiming nothing needs to be done. For the companies to still remain relevant in the context of ´clean´ future, they must adopt strategies of such that will not stop the change, but make them a part of it. For example, one way to do it may be through shifting to lighter fossil fuels at the beginning, while they diversify their portfolio to encompass renewables.
Who are the most vulnerable?
Coal mines, are run by people, they have people working in them. Same applies to all other means of energy production. And quite naturally, these people work there and are being paid so they can support their families. The reason this aspect of the issue must be emphasized is that there are indeed, say 20 CEOs in each company, with most of them being able to find anew job immediately, but there also are hundreds to thousands, or even more regular employees, who often lack other qualifications, which puts them at agreat disadvantage on the job market. That is what inevitably needs to be addressed; we want to transition to renewable resources without harming anyone, especially the weakest. Therefore, acomprehensive transition plan, on both anational, and international level must be adapted which will encourage amove to clean energy AND will support communities impacted by this move away from hydrocarbons.
Simple people are always at the greatest risk with each great change taking place. This must therefore be done with an extreme care, also remembering the price of the energy from renewable sources, especially in the very beginning, making renewable more lucrative in comparison with the non-renewable resources.