PPD 617. Urban Demography and Growth

Fall 2017

PPD 617. Urban Demography and Growth

VPD 116, Tuesday 6:00 – 9:20 p.m.

Web address: http://blackboard.usc.edu/

Professor Dowell Myers

Office hours: Monday, 4:00 – 6:00 p.m. RGL 301

JungHo Park, teaching assistant

Office hours: Tuesday, 10:30 a.m. – 12:30 p.m. RGL Lounge

The Economist has declared “Demography is back.” So many current problems and heated political issues are centered on demographic dynamics. All the more intriguing, the changing people are not only the objects of inquiry, but they also are the consumers of demographic “findings” and then they become the actors who respond politically. This graduate-level course provides fundamental insights into the role of demography in policy and planning, and it teaches essential skills for handling data in a persuasive manner.

The course emphasizes the temporality of demography and its application through “integrated demography” that embeds demographics in everything. Also emphasized is “demographic narrative,” skills for talking about demographic change to different audiences.

The course content has three elements:

a) Broad introduction to demographic methods and census data, with emphasis on “integrated demography” that connects demographics into many substantive topics in policy and planning, especially immigration, workforce, education, housing, and the changing lifestyles and economic impacts of young Millennials and aging Baby Boomers;

b) Emphasis on temporal dynamics essential for tracking changes over time and for projecting likely future trends; and

c) Emphasis on the communication of meaning that occurs through problem definition, data selection, customized analysis, and graphic presentation of findings, all of which must stand up in a contentious environment.

“Change over time” is the bread and butter of policy and planning. This course develops often-neglected professional skills required for measuring and talking about many aspects of change over time. The course places great weight on the temporal perspective highlighted by the demography field and that has vital insights for tracking and explaining change over time, including interpretations of the future. Spatial differences also will receive attention, but less so, because of the limited time budget for the course.

PPD 617 emphasizes the interface between theory, measurement, and communication of meaning. With demographic tools we can unlock a wealth of insights that lay buried in mountains of census data (or in “the sea” of data, if you prefer). In essence, how can we first discover the dynamics of change in population characteristics and then explain those in terms simple enough to persuade important decision makers (i.e., policy makers, voters, executive committees, judges, and juries)? Social science more broadly can be invigorated by a stronger infusion of demographic thinking, not just for reasons of the differences occurring between categories of people, but for reasons of the temporal dynamics that are embedded in different theories and methods but that are ill-considered and generally under-theorized.

The course’s integration of methods with theory is focused through a series of hands-on assignments and in-class exercises. Substantial computer usage will be required, all in Excel, whose row and column format is ideal for demographic data. Several self-guided tutorials and lab sessions are planned. Students will learn how to locate data over the web, how to select and download the best (not simply the first-discovered) census tabulations, and how to assemble data from different points in time that are necessary for trend analysis. Those data will then be analyzed through a series of contingency tables, including basic manipulations and some matrix projection methods, all using spreadsheet software. Emphasis is given more to changes over time than to descriptions at a single point in time. Throughout, emphasis is placed on learning the oft-neglected grammar necessary to expertly communicate data in graphs and words.

The Instructor reserves the right to alter the course schedule and assignments....

General Content of the Course:

Each class day includes theoretical and substantive topics, methods and thematic lessons.

a. Theoretical Topics

1—Demographic structure and population change

2—Population aging and generational succession

3—Demographic narrative: how to talk about demographic change

4—Accounting of babies, motherhood, and future adults

5—Geographic hierarchies: neighborhood, city, county, region, state and nation

6—Urban temporal structure: growth and cohort layering

7—Cohort longitudinal theory

b. Substantive Topics

1—Immigrant assimilation, advancement, and integration

2—Racial and ethnic change

3—Household formation

4—Homeownership

5—Residential mobility and migration

6—Workforce development

7—Educational attainment

8—Poverty

9—Voting participation

c. Practical Methods

1—Selecting from the wealth (the sea?) of census data

2—Choosing among alternative universes

3—Selecting denominators for control of percentages

4—Arranging the data for analysis (the most vital step)

5—Graphic display of quantitative data

6—Crafting titles for tables and graphs

7—Story building with data

8—Adjusting with control totals

9—Projection with the RxC framework

10—Cohort trends for projection

d. Thematic Lessons

1—Centrality of temporal thinking needed for future planning:

Planning actions are carried out in space, but the decision debates focus on time trends and the future

2—Integrating communication: Storyline, data contrasts, exhibit content, titles,

and conclusions

3—It’s all about contrasts: Effective research is founded on meaningful contrasts

4—Stories denominators tell

5—Focus on People or Places? (people flow through places, with changes measured at the place)
— conflict between the two perspectives
6—Dominant policy impacts of the aging Baby Boomers; new demands on their young replacements

7—Debates over the meaning, importance, and solutions of “demographic change”

COURSE REQUIREMENTS

Reading assignments listed on the following pages are all required. One book is available for purchase at book sellers online:

Myers, Dowell. (2007). Immigrants and Boomers: Forging a New Social Contract for the Future of America. New York: Russell Sage Foundation. Required.

An additional set of readings will be assigned.

Supplementary readings will be distributed in advance through Blackboard.

Grading: Assignment 1 5 % of final grade

Assignment 2 on City Heights 15 %

Assignment 3 10 %

Midterm Exam 30 %

Final Project & Presentation 30 %

Class Participation 10 %

(Including attendance, preparedness, and participation in class discussion/activity)

EXERCISES

During exercises in class, you will learn how to locate and access the data, how to take the raw data into Excel, rearrange it, and make some calculations, and followed by how to design displays. Each in-class exercise may or may not link directly to the topical content of the week’s readings, but the skills in exercises will be widely applicable.

TUTORIALS

Tutorials are available on Blackboard (http://blackboard.usc.edu/) and provide instruction on skills that are necessary to complete course assignments. View tutorials before the class for which they are assigned or review them afterward. You are not required to watch tutorials for skills that you are already comfortable using, but you should make sure that you understand how to use all the skills provided in tutorials.

GRADED ASSIGNMENTS

Assignment 1. Alternative measurements of change: absolute numbers, percentage growth, share of growth, percentage point change; each accompanied by narrative interpretation.

Assignment 2. Quick profile of the “City Heights” community in the City of San Diego. Is its income rising? Are the residents staying in place? How different is it from the whole of San Diego?

Assignment 3. Set up a “Rates x Composition” projection model with data to be supplied. Prepare a projection of changing needs in a growth context. Write a description of your method and its plain language interpretation.

Midterm Exam A take home exam with short essays that tap knowledge of the substantive content areas covered in the class. (This exam is the only assignment that can be submitted by email.)

Final Project An in-depth project using the skills learned in the course. Recommended datasets will be provided for several suggested topics. Carry out an integrated analysis featuring calculations summarized in tables, graphs, and narrative interpretation. Teams of 2 students.

It is required to submit your assignments in HARDCOPY. Late work will receive a half-grade penalty per day between the due date and when you turn them in, unless there are prior arrangements, medical excuses, religious holidays, or family emergencies.

Disability Statement

Any student requesting academic accommodations based on a disability is required to register with Disability Services and Programs (DSP) each semester. A letter of verification for approved accommodations can be obtained from DSP. Please be sure the letter is delivered to me as early in the semester as possible. DSP is located in STU 301 and is open 8:30 a.m.-5:00 p.m. Monday through Friday. The phone number for DSP is 213-740-0776. Please contact me if you need additional assistance with this process.

Plagiarism Statement

None is tolerated. All work submitted shall be by the student’s own hand and without electronic copy from classmates or other individuals. Any material taken from the internet must have the web source attributed. A mosaic of elements copied from different sources must have a citation for each “borrowed” element. A manual for recognizing and avoiding different types of plagiarism is available through Harvard University:

http://isites.harvard.edu/icb/icb.do?keyword=k70847&pageid=icb.page342054

Course Schedule

Week 1. Course Overview and Conceptual Fundamentals August 22

Introduction and Core Course Questions

How are demographic differences and social indicators woven throughout policy and public debates?

What are the temporal biases that mislead current thinking about coming changes?

Baby Boom and Millennial generations—how have the key impacts of their large size been similar? The Millennials may seem different for a time, but how much will they resemble their parents as they move toward 45?

What are the impacts and significance of diversity? How might the ways we describe and analyze diversity shape the public reception of diversity?

What is the linkage between changing demographics and the current presidential campaign?

How are demographic factors central to the crisis of housing shortages in LA and elsewhere?

Review of Syllabus and Handouts

Several items

Readings

Immigrants and Boomers, Chapters 1 and 3

CAUTION: In this course, without warning, the professor may slip into an argumentative guise, challenging class members to respond with a counter-argument. He often does not believe these argument positions but is merely simulating real world commentary and debate. Your job is not to seek “the right” position; rather it is just to learn to better articulate what you think or to explain WHY the professor’s assumed position is misguided. When social values and demographic numbers are intertwined it is often hard to sort out, so we will practice it on the fly.

First, we need to be much more clear in talking about what exactly are the numbers, then about what they represent. After that we can challenge the choice of numbers and the interpretation given. Numbers are not unchangeable, nor do they speak for themselves, and they certainly do not convey uncontested truth. Instead numbers are employed interactively in policy and planning to persuade decision makers. So we will practice the drill, if you are willing.

Week 2. Overview of Demographic Change and Problem Arguments August 29

Demographic Structure and Processes

Structure and composition (shares of total)

1—Age, race, nativity, generation

Processes (rates per capita)

1—Aging, migration, fertility

2—Other behaviors (job holding, voting, home buying, etc.)

Indicators of problems (incidence rates, gaps, or other comparisons)

1—Unemployment, poverty, affordability, dropouts, nonvoters, etc.

2—Childless or childfree? Expensive or valuable? Whose problem—individual’s or society’s?

Problems, names, and frames

Argument—different data chosen for different points; same data organized differently for different points; so what is the point?

Elements of Data Grammar

Percentage construction – rates and shares

Denominators and universes

Labor Force example; Voting example; Housing example

Change over time (Monthly Labor Review tables on Labor Force)

“Who’s Your Denominator?”

Exercises

Universe for rates and shares

Changing composition

Time lines for historical and life-cycle contexts (unemployment rates, construction cycles, birth rates (by age of mother), homeownership rates, and migration rates (by age))

Excel—Basic skills (workbook organization and various cell references)

Readings

Analysis With Local Census Data, pp. 255-273, 299-300

Schwabish, Jonathan A. 2014. "An Economist's Guide to Visualizing Data." Journal of Economic Perspectives, 28(1): 209-34. http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/jep.28.1.209

Pew Research Center. (2010). “The New Demography of American Motherhood.” Washington, D.C.: Taylor, Paul & D’Vera Cohn. [just scan it over]

Monte, Lindsay M. and Renee R. Ellis (2014). “Fertility of Women in the United States: 2012,” P20-575. Census Bureau. [just scan it over]

Colby, Sandra and Jennifer Ortman. (2014). “The Baby Boom Cohort in the United States: 2012 to 2060,” Current Population Reports P25-1141. Census Bureau.

Tutorials (for review)

Workbook Organization - Excel

Formatting Tables - Excel

Relative Cell References - Excel

Fixed Cell References - Excel

Named Cell References - Excel

Week 3. Questions about Many Variations on Race September 5

Many Variations on Race

Old conception of race

Population shifts within and between race-ethnic groups

Multiracial groups

Projections of race and many uncertainties about changing implications

Exercises

Race definitions and categories

Trends in race (inclusive vs. exclusive)

Graphs about race change over time

Data Grammar: Titles for graphs that indicate message, not general topic

Readings

Immigrants and Boomers, pp. 50-55 “Changing Racial and Ethnic Composition”

William H. Frey, Diversity Explosion, Chapter 1 “A Pivotal Period for Race in America”

Week 4. Politics, Voting and Race in Place and Time September 12

Politics and Voting Behaviors

Demographic differences in per capita rate of voting

Population shifts between race-ethnic groups and toward older ages

Explaining the paradox of growing majorities of newer minorities, combined with white majorities of voters

Data Grammar: who is the intended audience and how will they respond?

Exercises

Universe and categories for voting

Multiplying rates of behavior for voting

Excel—Introduction to graphs (line, column, bar, stacking, etc.)

Readings

Analysis With Local Census Data, pp. 15-16, 22, 24, 26, and 214

Immigrants and Boomers, Chapter 7 “Political Lag”

U.S. Census Bureau. (2013). The Diversifying Electorate—Voting Rates by Race and Hispanic Origin in 2012 (and Other Recent Elections). Current Population Reports P20-568. Washington, D.C. http://www.census.gov/prod/2013pubs/p20-568.pdf
See Table 1 in http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/socdemo/voting/publications/p20/2012/tables.html