The Full Report Is Available From s1

7 February 2013

The full report is available from www.daff.gov.au/abares

Summary of key issues

· Moderate to major flooding is continuing to occur in a number of river systems in southern Queensland and northern New South Wales as the flood peak associated with very heavy rainfall from ex-tropical cyclone ‘Oswald’ moves downstream.

· Natural Disaster Relief and Recovery Assistance (NDRRA) is now available for a total of 53Queensland and 15 New South Wales local government areas affected by ex-tropical cyclone ‘Oswald’ and associated rainfall and flooding.

· Despite some reported stock and crop losses as a result of localised flooding, the recent heavy rainfall in south-east Queensland and north-east New South Wales is likely to benefit summer crops and pasture growth in regions not directly impacted by flooding.

· Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin decreased this week by 243gigalitre (GL) and are at 72 per cent of total capacity.

· The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$345 a tonne in the week ending 5 February 2013, largely unchanged from the previous week.

· The Global Dairy Trade weighted average price of anhydrous milk fat increased to US$3500 a tonne on 5 February 2013, 7.6 per cent higher than US$3253 a tonne on 16January 2013. The whole milk powder price increased by 5.5 per cent to US$3468 a tonne over the same period.

· The world cotton indicator price (the Cotlook ‘A’ index) averaged around 89.8 cents apound in the week ending 6 February 2013, its highest level in 9 months.

· China Sugar Association data indicates China produced 3.43 million tonnes of sugar (white value) in January 2013, its highest monthly production on record. Chinese sugar production in the first four months of 2012-13 (October to September) is 6.7 million tonnes, 29 per cent more than in the same period a year ago.

· Australian beef and veal exports in January 2013 were 55000 tonnes (shipped weight), 17per cent higher than January 2012. Exports to the United States, Republic of Korea and China were all higher than the same time last year while shipments to Japan were largely unchanged.

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1. Climate

1.1. Notable events

· Moderate to major flooding is occurring in the following river systems as the flood peak associated with rainfall from ex-tropical cyclone ‘Oswald’ moves downstream.

· Moderate to major flood levels will extend down the Condamine–Balonne river system over the next few weeks.

· The Balonne River at St George is currently experiencing major flooding with the water level steady, however the water is not expected to reach the height of flooding in recent years.

· Floods are currently moving down the Lower Weir River in Queensland, with major flooding occurring between Surrey and Mungindi, and downstream on the Barwon River near the Queensland New South Wales border.

· The Moonie River at the Thallon Bridge in southern Queensland is at major flood level and rising slowly.

· Natural Disaster Relief and Recovery Assistance (NDRRA) is now available for a total of 53 Queensland and 15 New South Wales local government areas affected by ex-tropical cyclone ‘Oswald’ and associated rainfall and flooding.

· There have been widespread reports of damage to roads and other infrastructure in coastal regions that are critical to some primary producers for supply and to transport goods to markets as a result of flooding associated with ex-cyclone ‘Oswald’.

· The recent rainfall has reportedly boosted the prospects of some late sown sorghum crops in northern New South Wales and Southern Queensland. The rainfall is also likely to improve pasture conditions for grazing enterprises in some areas.

· Rainfall in January 2013 was average to extremely high across most of Western Australia and extremely low to average throughout most of the remainder of Australia, except for most of the east coast, which recorded extremely high rainfall associated with ex-tropical cyclone ‘Oswald’.

· Upper layer soil moisture levels in Western Australia have responded to recent rainfall, ranking in the 90thpercentile range across a wide area.

· Above average daytime temperatures across southern Australia over the next few days are expected to bring severe to extreme fire danger conditions across a number of districts in Western Australia and Victoria, and severe fire danger conditions to the Riverina region in New South Wales.

· The latest ‘Drought Statement’ issued by the Bureau of Meteorology on 5 February 2013, indicates that rainfall deficiencies have expanded in southern Australia, but have eased along the east coast. For further details please refer to section 1.6 of this report.

1.2. Rainfall this week

For the week ending 6 February 2013, rainfall was mainly limited to Tasmania, coastal regions of eastern Australia and the northern tropics. The highest rainfall total for the week was 109 millimetres at Cape Wessel north of Gove in the Northern Territory. For further information, go to www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/weeklyrain.shtml.

Rainfall for the week ending 6 February 2013

©Commonwealth of Australia 2013, Australia Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 06/02/2013

1.3. Temperature anomalies this week

Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and the minimum from their respective long-term average. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards. For further information on temperature anomalies, go to www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/.

Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 5 February 2013

©Commonwealth of Australia 2013, Australia Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 06/02/2013

Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 5 February 2013

©Commonwealth of Australia 2013, Australia Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 06/02/2013

1.4. Recent rainfall

Rainfall percentiles for January 2013

Rainfall percentiles for November 2012 to January 2013

1.5. Recent soil moisture percentiles

The maps below show the relative levels of modelled upper (0 to 0.2 metres) soil moisture and lower (0.2to1.5metres) soil moisture at the end of January 2013. These maps show soil moisture estimates relative to the long-term average over the reference period 1961 to 1990.

Upper layer soil moisture for January 2013

The bulk of plant roots occur in the top 0.3 metres of the soil profile and soil moisture in the upper layer of the soil profile (0.2 metres) is the most appropriate indication of the availability of water, particularly for germinating plants. The lower layer soil moisture is a larger, deeper store that is slower to respond to rainfall and tends to reflect accumulated events over seasonal and longer time scales.

Lower layer soil moisture for January 2013

1.6. Rainfall deficiencies

Severe rainfall deficiencies have expanded across central Australia and large parts of the inland south-east following below average January rainfall. Severe deficiencies now cover most of South Australia, large areas of western New South Wales and Victoria, and the southwest corner of the Northern Territory (Bureau of Meteorology ‘Drought Statement’ 5February 2013).

Rainfall deficiencies for the period 1 August 2012 to 31 January 2013

©Commonwealth of Australia 2013, Australia Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 03/02/2013

Rainfall deficiencies for the 10-month (April 2012 to January 2013) period have expanded over South Australia, with an area of lowest on record covering a large part of the pastoral districts and spreading into Western Australia. Areas of severe deficiency have expanded into New South Wales and Victoria (Bureau of Meteorology ‘Drought Statement’ 5 February 2013).

Rainfall deficiencies for the period 1 April 2012 to 31 January 2013

©Commonwealth of Australia 2013, Australia Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 03/02/2013

1.7. Rainfall outlook

The rainfall forecast below is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to also check local forecasts and warnings by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Total forecast rainfall for the period 7 to 14 February 2013

©Commonwealth of Australia 2013, Australia Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 5/02/2013

2. Water

2.1. Water availability

Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) decreased this week by 243 gigalitres(GL) and are at 72 per cent of total capacity. This is 11 percentage points or 2415 GL more than this time last year.

2.2. Water storages

Changes in regional water storage for November 2012 and the previous 12 months are summarised in the table and graphs below (current at 6 December 2012).

Region / Total capacity
(GL) / Current volume
(GL) / Current volume
(%) / Monthly change
(GL) / Monthly change
(%) / Annual change
(GL)
Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) / 22558 / 16203 / 72 / -1811 / -8 / -2415
Snowy Scheme / 5744 / 3244 / 56 / -82 / -1 / +56
Murray-Darling Basin Authority (MDBA) / 9352 / 6692 / 44 / -910 / -6 / -292
Queensland MDB / 186 / 139 / 74 / +77 / +41 / -23
Central Queensland / 3154 / 2952 / 94 / +390 / +12 / -64
South-east Queensland / 3517 / 3215 / 91 / +155 / +4 / -229
New South Wales MDB / 13884 / 8574 / 62 / -1594 / -11 / -2750
Coastal New South Wales / 1074 / 1004 / 94 / +1 / +0 / -87
Victoria MDB / 8488 / 7476 / 88 / -297 / -4 / +360

ABARES data includes all public storages in the MDB in comparison to the figure the Murray–Darling Basin Authority (MDBA) uses, which only includes the storages managed by the MDBA.

Water storages in Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria

The blue line indicates the extent of the Murray–Darling Basin and the shaded areas denote the coverage of the individual reporting regions.

Water storages in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)

Information on irrigation water available in the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 7 February 2013 is shown above. The top horizontal (red) line indicates the storage level at the similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (orange) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.

Water storages in the Murray–Darling Basin by state (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)

3. Commodities

3.1. Production and commodities

· The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$345 a tonne in the week ending 5 February 2013, largely unchanged from the previous week.

· The world coarse grains indicator price (US no. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$311 a tonne for the week ending 6 Feb 2013, compared with US$308 a tonne in the previous week.

· The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$658 a tonne in the week ending 5 February 2013, compared with US$642 a tonne in the previous week.

· The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average price of anhydrous milk fat increased to US$3500 a tonne on 5 February 2013 7.6 per cent higher than US$3253 a tonne on 16 January 2013. The whole milk powder price increased by 5.5 per cent to US$3468 a tonne over the same period while the prices of cheese and skim milk powder remained largely unchanged.

· The world cotton indicator price (the Cotlook ‘A’ index) averaged around 89.8 cents a pound in the week ending 6 February 2013, its highest level in 9 months.

· The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no. 11 contract) averaged US18.6 cents a pound in the week ending 6 February 2013, largely unchanged from the previous week.

· China Cotton Reserve Procurement Data shows that as at 25 January 2013, the government has purchased around 87 per cent of the 2012-13 season’s domestic cotton crop and added 5.95 million tonnes of cotton to the national reserve. The purchases to 25 January are 77 per cent higher than the total volume purchased in 2011-12.

· The Australian canola indicator price (Portland, Victoria) averaged $539 a tonne in the week ending 6February 2013, largely unchanged from the previous week.

· Australian beef and veal production in December 2012 was 150000 tonnes (carcass weight), 3 per cent higher than December 2011.

· Australian beef and veal exports in January 2013 were 55000 tonnes (shipped weight), 17 per cent higher than January 2012. Exports to the United States, Republic of Korea and China were all higher than the same time last year while shipments to Japan were largely unchanged.

· Changes to saleyard prices of lamb were mixed in the week ending 1 February 2013. The lamb indicator price for lamb (18-22kg fat score 2-4) rose by 8 per cent in New South Wales and 5 per cent in South Australia to average 376 cents per kilogram and 364 cents per kilogram, respectively. In contrast, the indicator price declined by 3 per cent in Victoria and 1 per cent in Western Australia to average 354 cents per kilogram and 314 cents per kilogram, respectively.

· The Australian Eastern Market Indicator price for wool rose by 4 per cent in the week ending 31 January 2013 to 1138 cents a kilogram clean. The total number of bales offered at sale fell by 24 per cent compared with previous week.

· The wholesale prices of fruit were generally higher in the week ending 2 February 2013. The prices Banana (cavendish), blueberry, strawberry, pineapple (smoothleaf) and watermelon (seedless) were all higher than the previous week.

· Changes to the wholesale prices of vegetables were mixed in the week ending 2 February 2013. The prices of beans (round stringless) and broccoli were higher, while tomato (field gourmet) and cauliflower prices were lower.