Demography of Population Recovery: Survival and Fidelity of Peregrine Falcons at Various

Smith et al.

Demography of population recovery: survival and fidelity of peregrine falcons at various stages of population recovery

George D. Smith,Oscar E. Murillo-García, Jeffrey A. Hostetler, Richard Mearns,

Ian Newton, Michael J. McGrady, and Madan K. Oli

Supplementary material

Table A1. Summary of peregrine falcons captured, marked, recaptured live and recovered dead in south Scotland – south England. Data collection in south Scotland – north England occurred during two periods: 1974-1982 (recovery study period): and 2002-2011 (stable study period). Recoveries inside and our study area were provided for our fieldwork and for a database maintained by the British Trust for Ornithologists (BTO).

Study site / CMR or recovery / Sex
M / F / Unknown

Recovery study period

1. CMR
Juveniles / 176 / 214 / 27
Subadults / 0 / 0 / 0
Adults / 10 / 34 / 0
2. Recoveries
Juveniles / 24 / 28 / 5
Subadults / 0 / 0 / 0
Adults / 6 / 9 / 2

Stable study period

1. CMR
Juveniles / 323 / 264 / 34
Subadults / 0 / 0 / 0
Adults / 35 / 74 / 0
2. Recoveries
Juveniles / 5 / 6 / 0
Subadults / 0 / 1 / 0
Adults / 3 / 2 / 0

Smith et al.

Table A2. Model comparison table for Burnham live-recapture and dead-recovery analysis to investigate the best base model for probabilities of capture (p) and recovery (r) in south Scotland – north England. Models test for the effect of sex (males and females), age (juveniles: < 1; subadults: 1-2, and adults: > 2 years-old), study period (recovery: 1974-1982, stable: 2002-2011), and a linear temporal trend (Time). For all analyses, survival rate (S) was constrained to be age and sex specific (i.e., S(sex*age)), and parameters p, r and F were allowed to be affected by age, sex, study period, and a linear temporal trend, and their additive and interactive effects. Top models (∆AICc<5) are presented. Table includes the number of parameters (K), Akaike’s information criterion corrected for small sample size (AICc), difference in AICc (∆AICc) and model weights (relative likelihood of models in the set).

No / Model / K / AICc / ∆AICc / Weight
1 / p(age + period)r(Time * period)F(sex + age + period) / 18 / 35062.125 / 0.000 / 0.079
2 / p(sex + age + period)r(Time * period)F(sex + age + period) / 19 / 35062.506 / 0.381 / 0.066
3 / p(sex + age + period)r(Time * period)F(sex * period + age * period) / 22 / 35062.828 / 0.703 / 0.056
4 / p(age + period)r(Time * period)F(sex * period + age) / 19 / 35062.861 / 0.736 / 0.055
5 / p(age + period)r(Time * period)F(sex * period + age * period) / 21 / 35063.615 / 1.490 / 0.038
6 / p(age * period)r(Time * period)F(sex + age + period) / 19 / 35063.686 / 1.561 / 0.036
7 / p(age + period)r(period * Time + sex)F(sex + age + period) / 19 / 35063.824 / 1.699 / 0.034
8 / p(sex + age + period)r(period * Time + sex)F(sex * period + age * period) / 23 / 35063.941 / 1.816 / 0.032
9 / p(sex + age + period)r(period * Time + sex)F(sex * period + age) / 21 / 35064.112 / 1.987 / 0.029
10 / p(sex + age * period)r(Time * period)F(sex + age + period) / 20 / 35064.122 / 1.997 / 0.029
11 / p(sex + age + period)r(period * Time + sex)F(sex + age + period) / 20 / 35064.260 / 2.135 / 0.027
12 / p(sex + age * period)r(Time * period)F(sex * period + age) / 21 / 35064.269 / 2.144 / 0.027
13 / p(age + period)r(period * Time + sex)F(sex * period + age) / 20 / 35064.278 / 2.153 / 0.027
14 / p(sex + age + period)r(Time * period)F(sex + age * period) / 21 / 35064.381 / 2.256 / 0.026
15 / p(age + period)r(Time * period)F(sex + age * period) / 20 / 35064.413 / 2.288 / 0.025
16 / p(age * period)r(Time * period)F(sex * period + age) / 20 / 35064.454 / 2.329 / 0.025
17 / p(sex + age * period)r(Time * period)F(sex * period + age * period) / 23 / 35064.729 / 2.604 / 0.022
18 / p(age + period)r(period * Time + sex)F(sex * period + age * period) / 22 / 35064.876 / 2.751 / 0.020
19 / p(sex + age + period)r(period * Time + sex)F(age * period) / 21 / 35065.348 / 3.223 / 0.016
20 / p(age * period)r(period * Time + sex)F(sex + age + period) / 20 / 35065.385 / 3.260 / 0.016
21 / p(age * period)r(Time * period)F(sex * period + age * period) / 22 / 35065.483 / 3.358 / 0.015
22 / p(sex + age * period)r(period * Time + sex)F(sex * period + age) / 22 / 35065.745 / 3.620 / 0.013
23 / p(sex + age + period)r(period * Time + sex)F(sex + age * period) / 22 / 35065.759 / 3.634 / 0.013
24 / p(age + period)r(Time * period)F(sex * age + period) / 20 / 35065.840 / 3.715 / 0.012
25 / p(sex + age * period)r(period * Time + sex)F(sex * period + age * period) / 24 / 35065.864 / 3.739 / 0.012
26 / p(sex + age * period)r(period * Time + sex)F(sex + age + period) / 21 / 35065.875 / 3.750 / 0.012
27 / p(age * period)r(period * Time + sex)F(sex * period + age) / 21 / 35065.888 / 3.763 / 0.012
28 / p(age + period)r(period * Time + sex)F(sex + age * period) / 21 / 35065.944 / 3.819 / 0.012
29 / p(age + period)r(period * Time + age)F(sex + age + period) / 20 / 35066.065 / 3.940 / 0.011
30 / p(sex + age * period)r(Time * period)F(sex + age * period) / 22 / 35066.231 / 4.106 / 0.010
31 / p(sex + age + period)r(Time * period)F(sex * age + period) / 21 / 35066.263 / 4.138 / 0.010
32 / p(sex + age + period)r(period * Time + age)F(sex + age + period) / 21 / 35066.464 / 4.339 / 0.009
33 / p(sex + age + period)r(period * Time + age)F(sex * period + age) / 22 / 35066.570 / 4.445 / 0.009
34 / p(age + period)r(period * Time + age)F(sex * period + age) / 21 / 35066.754 / 4.629 / 0.008
35 / p(age * period)r(period * Time + sex)F(sex * period + age * period) / 23 / 35066.761 / 4.636 / 0.008
36 / p(sex + age + period)r(period * Time + age)F(sex * period + age * period) / 24 / 35066.942 / 4.817 / 0.007

Smith et al.

Table A3. Model-averaged annual estimates (±SE) of capture probabilities (p) of peregrine falcons in south Scotland – north England. Models in Table A2were used for model averaging.

Females / Males
Year / Subadults / Adults / Subadults / Adults
1975 / 0.055 ± 0.023 / 0.499 ± 0.059 / 0.055 ± 0.023 / 0.499 ± 0.059
1976 / 0.055 ± 0.023 / 0.499 ± 0.059 / 0.055 ± 0.023 / 0.499 ± 0.059
1977 / 0.055 ± 0.023 / 0.499 ± 0.059 / 0.055 ± 0.023 / 0.499 ± 0.059
1978 / 0.055 ± 0.023 / 0.499 ± 0.059 / 0.055 ± 0.023 / 0.499 ± 0.059
1979 / 0.055 ± 0.023 / 0.499 ± 0.059 / 0.055 ± 0.023 / 0.499 ± 0.059
1980 / 0.055 ± 0.023 / 0.499 ± 0.059 / 0.055 ± 0.023 / 0.499 ± 0.059
1981 / 0.055 ± 0.023 / 0.499 ± 0.059 / 0.055 ± 0.023 / 0.499 ± 0.059
1982 / 0.055 ± 0.023 / 0.499 ± 0.059 / 0.055 ± 0.023 / 0.499 ± 0.059
2003 / 0.136 ± 0.051 / 0.730 ± 0.037 / 0.136 ± 0.051 / 0.730 ± 0.037
2004 / 0.136 ± 0.051 / 0.730 ± 0.037 / 0.136 ± 0.051 / 0.730 ± 0.037
2005 / 0.136 ± 0.051 / 0.730 ± 0.037 / 0.136 ± 0.051 / 0.730 ± 0.037
2006 / 0.136 ± 0.051 / 0.730 ± 0.037 / 0.136 ± 0.051 / 0.730 ± 0.037
2007 / 0.136 ± 0.051 / 0.730 ± 0.037 / 0.136 ± 0.051 / 0.730 ± 0.037
2008 / 0.136 ± 0.051 / 0.730 ± 0.037 / 0.136 ± 0.051 / 0.730 ± 0.037
2009 / 0.136 ± 0.051 / 0.730 ± 0.037 / 0.136 ± 0.051 / 0.730 ± 0.037
2010 / 0.136 ± 0.051 / 0.730 ± 0.037 / 0.136 ± 0.051 / 0.730 ± 0.037
2011 / 0.136 ± 0.051 / 0.730 ± 0.037 / 0.136 ± 0.051 / 0.730 ± 0.037

Murillo-García et al.

Table A4. Model-averaged annual estimates (±SE) of recovery rates (r) of peregrine falcons in south Scotland – north England. Models in Table A2 were used for model averaging. A dash ("-") indicates the parameter was not estimable.

Females / Males
Year / Juveniles / Subadults / Adults / Juveniles / Subadults / Adults
1974 / 0.655 ± 0.122 / - / 0.655 ± 0.122 / 0.655 ± 0.122 / - / 0.655 ± 0.122
1975 / 0.575 ± 0.112 / 0.575 ± 0.112 / 0.575 ± 0.112 / 0.575 ± 0.112 / 0.575 ± 0.112 / 0.575 ± 0.112
1976 / 0.491 ± 0.096 / 0.491 ± 0.096 / 0.491 ± 0.096 / 0.491 ± 0.096 / 0.491 ± 0.096 / 0.491 ± 0.096
1977 / 0.407 ± 0.076 / 0.407 ± 0.076 / 0.407 ± 0.076 / 0.407 ± 0.076 / 0.407 ± 0.076 / 0.407 ± 0.076
1978 / 0.328 ± 0.057 / 0.328 ± 0.057 / 0.328 ± 0.057 / 0.328 ± 0.057 / 0.328 ± 0.057 / 0.328 ± 0.057
1979 / 0.258 ± 0.043 / 0.258 ± 0.043 / 0.258 ± 0.043 / 0.258 ± 0.043 / 0.258 ± 0.043 / 0.258 ± 0.043
1980 / 0.199 ± 0.036 / 0.199 ± 0.036 / 0.199 ± 0.036 / 0.199 ± 0.036 / 0.199 ± 0.036 / 0.199 ± 0.036
1981 / 0.150 ± 0.033 / 0.15 0± 0.033 / 0.15 0± 0.033 / 0.150 ± 0.033 / 0.15 0± 0.033 / 0.150 ± 0.033
1982 / 0.112 ± 0.031 / 0.112 ± 0.031 / 0.112 ± 0.031 / 0.112 ± 0.031 / 0.112 ± 0.031 / 0.112 ± 0.031
2002 / 0.038 ± 0.023 / 0.038 ± 0.023 / 0.038 ± 0.023 / 0.038 ± 0.023 / 0.038 ± 0.023 / 0.038 ± 0.023
2003 / 0.037 ± 0.019 / 0.037 ± 0.019 / 0.037 ± 0.019 / 0.037 ± 0.019 / 0.037 ± 0.019 / 0.037 ± 0.019
2004 / 0.037 ± 0.015 / 0.037 ± 0.015 / 0.037 ± 0.015 / 0.037 ± 0.015 / 0.037 ± 0.015 / 0.037 ± 0.015
2005 / 0.036 ± 0.012 / 0.036 ± 0.012 / 0.036 ± 0.012 / 0.036 ± 0.012 / 0.036 ± 0.012 / 0.036 ± 0.012
2006 / 0.035 ± 0.010 / 0.035 ± 0.010 / 0.035 ± 0.010 / 0.035 ± 0.010 / 0.035 ± 0.010 / 0.035 ± 0.010
2007 / 0.034 ± 0.009 / 0.034 ± 0.009 / 0.034 ± 0.009 / 0.034 ± 0.009 / 0.034 ± 0.009 / 0.034 ± 0.009
2008 / 0.033 ± 0.010 / 0.033 ± 0.010 / 0.033 ± 0.010 / 0.033 ± 0.010 / 0.033 ± 0.010 / 0.033 ± 0.010
2009 / 0.033 ± 0.012 / 0.033 ± 0.012 / 0.033 ± 0.012 / 0.033 ± 0.012 / 0.033 ± 0.012 / 0.033 ± 0.012
2010 / 0.032 ± 0.014 / 0.032 ± 0.014 / 0.032 ± 0.014 / 0.032 ± 0.014 / 0.032 ± 0.014 / 0.032 ± 0.014
2011 / 0.031 ± 0.017 / 0.031 ± 0.017 / 0.031 ± 0.017 / 0.031 ± 0.017 / 0.031 ± 0.017 / 0.031 ± 0.017

Murillo-García et al.

Table A5. Model-averaged annual estimates (±SE) of fidelity rates (F) of peregrine falcons in south Scotland – north England. Models in Table 1a (see manuscript)were used for model averaging. A dash ("-") indicates the parameter was not estimable.

Females / Males
Year / Juveniles / Subadults / Adults / Juveniles / Subadults / Adults
1975 / 0.360 ± 0.094 / - / 0.950 ± 0.05 / 0.172 ± 0.064 / - / 0.884 ± 0.085
1976 / 0.360 ± 0.094 / 0.999 ± 0.001 / 0.950 ± 0.05 / 0.172 ± 0.064 / 0.999 ± 0.001 / 0.884 ± 0.085
1977 / 0.360 ± 0.094 / 0.999 ± 0.001 / 0.950 ± 0.05 / 0.172 ± 0.064 / 0.999 ± 0.001 / 0.884 ± 0.085
1978 / 0.360 ± 0.094 / 0.999 ± 0.001 / 0.950 ± 0.05 / 0.172 ± 0.064 / 0.999 ± 0.001 / 0.884 ± 0.085
1979 / 0.360 ± 0.094 / 0.999 ± 0.001 / 0.950 ± 0.05 / 0.172 ± 0.064 / 0.999 ± 0.001 / 0.884 ± 0.085
1980 / 0.360 ± 0.094 / 0.999 ± 0.001 / 0.950 ± 0.05 / 0.172 ± 0.064 / 0.999 ± 0.001 / 0.884 ± 0.085
1981 / 0.360 ± 0.094 / 0.999 ± 0.001 / 0.950 ± 0.05 / 0.172 ± 0.064 / 0.999 ± 0.001 / 0.884 ± 0.085
1982 / 0.360 ± 0.094 / 0.999 ± 0.001 / 0.950 ± 0.05 / 0.172 ± 0.064 / 0.999 ± 0.001 / 0.884 ± 0.085
1983 / 0.360 ± 0.094 / 0.999 ± 0.001 / 0.950 ± 0.05 / 0.172 ± 0.064 / 0.999 ± 0.001 / 0.884 ± 0.085
2002 / 0.133 ± 0.038 / 0.999 ± 0.002 / 0.906 ± 0.045 / 0.039 ± 0.017 / 0.999 ± 0.007 / 0.707 ± 0.087
2003 / 0.133 ± 0.038 / 0.999 ± 0.002 / 0.906 ± 0.045 / 0.039 ± 0.017 / 0.999 ± 0.007 / 0.707 ± 0.087
2004 / 0.133 ± 0.038 / 0.999 ± 0.002 / 0.906 ± 0.045 / 0.039 ± 0.017 / 0.999 ± 0.007 / 0.707 ± 0.087
2005 / 0.133 ± 0.038 / 0.999 ± 0.002 / 0.906 ± 0.045 / 0.039 ± 0.017 / 0.999 ± 0.007 / 0.707 ± 0.087
2006 / 0.133 ± 0.038 / 0.999 ± 0.002 / 0.906 ± 0.045 / 0.039 ± 0.017 / 0.999 ± 0.007 / 0.707 ± 0.087
2007 / 0.133 ± 0.038 / 0.999 ± 0.002 / 0.906 ± 0.045 / 0.039 ± 0.017 / 0.999 ± 0.007 / 0.707 ± 0.087
2008 / 0.133 ± 0.038 / 0.999 ± 0.002 / 0.906 ± 0.045 / 0.039 ± 0.017 / 0.999 ± 0.007 / 0.707 ± 0.087
2009 / 0.133 ± 0.038 / 0.999 ± 0.002 / 0.906 ± 0.045 / 0.039 ± 0.017 / 0.999 ± 0.007 / 0.707 ± 0.087
2010 / 0.133 ± 0.038 / 0.999 ± 0.002 / 0.906 ± 0.045 / 0.039 ± 0.017 / 0.999 ± 0.007 / 0.707 ± 0.087

Table A6. Model-averaged annual estimates (±SE) of survival rates (S) of peregrine falcons in south Scotland – north England. Models in Table 2a(see manuscript) were used for model averaging. A dash ("-") indicates the parameter was not estimable.

Females / Males
Year / Juveniles / Subadults / Adults / Juveniles / Subadults / Adults
1974 / 0.596 ± 0.071 / - / 0.803 ± 0.039 / 0.613 ± 0.076 / - / 0.813 ± 0.046
1975 / 0.595 ± 0.069 / 0.808 ± 0.065 / 0.803 ± 0.040 / 0.612 ± 0.073 / 0.808 ± 0.066 / 0.813 ± 0.046
1976 / 0.595 ± 0.069 / 0.808 ± 0.065 / 0.803 ± 0.041 / 0.612 ± 0.073 / 0.808 ± 0.066 / 0.813 ± 0.045
1977 / 0.596 ± 0.069 / 0.809 ± 0.065 / 0.803 ± 0.042 / 0.612 ± 0.074 / 0.809 ± 0.066 / 0.813 ± 0.045
1978 / 0.595 ± 0.069 / 0.809 ± 0.065 / 0.803 ± 0.043 / 0.612 ± 0.074 / 0.809 ± 0.066 / 0.813 ± 0.045
1979 / 0.595 ± 0.069 / 0.808 ± 0.065 / 0.802 ± 0.040 / 0.612 ± 0.073 / 0.808 ± 0.067 / 0.812 ± 0.047
1980 / 0.595 ± 0.069 / 0.808 ± 0.065 / 0.803 ± 0.039 / 0.612 ± 0.073 / 0.808 ± 0.066 / 0.813 ± 0.046
1981 / 0.595 ± 0.069 / 0.809 ± 0.065 / 0.803 ± 0.038 / 0.612 ± 0.074 / 0.808 ± 0.066 / 0.813 ± 0.045
1982 / 0.594 ± 0.073 / 0.807 ± 0.072 / 0.802 ± 0.050 / 0.611 ± 0.077 / 0.807 ± 0.073 / 0.812 ± 0.055
1983 / 0.594 ± 0.073 / 0.807 ± 0.072 / 0.802 ± 0.051 / 0.611 ± 0.077 / 0.807 ± 0.073 / 0.812 ± 0.055
2001 / 0.608 ± 0.136 / 0.841 ± 0.090 / 0.831 ± 0.071 / 0.626 ± 0.147 / 0.84 ± 0.095 / 0.840 ± 0.077
2002 / 0.609 ± 0.133 / 0.842 ± 0.084 / 0.831 ± 0.064 / 0.627 ± 0.145 / 0.841 ± 0.090 / 0.841 ± 0.070
2003 / 0.610 ± 0.135 / 0.843 ± 0.083 / 0.832 ± 0.062 / 0.628 ± 0.146 / 0.842 ± 0.088 / 0.842 ± 0.069
2004 / 0.610 ± 0.135 / 0.843 ± 0.083 / 0.832 ± 0.063 / 0.628 ± 0.146 / 0.842 ± 0.089 / 0.842 ± 0.069
2005 / 0.610 ± 0.135 / 0.843 ± 0.083 / 0.832 ± 0.062 / 0.628 ± 0.146 / 0.842 ± 0.088 / 0.842 ± 0.069
2006 / 0.610 ± 0.135 / 0.843 ± 0.083 / 0.832 ± 0.063 / 0.628 ± 0.146 / 0.842 ± 0.088 / 0.842 ± 0.069
2007 / 0.610 ± 0.135 / 0.843 ± 0.083 / 0.832 ± 0.064 / 0.628 ± 0.146 / 0.842 ± 0.088 / 0.842 ± 0.069
2008 / 0.610 ± 0.135 / 0.843 ± 0.083 / 0.832 ± 0.065 / 0.628 ± 0.146 / 0.842 ± 0.088 / 0.842 ± 0.069
2009 / 0.610 ± 0.135 / 0.843 ± 0.083 / 0.832 ± 0.066 / 0.628 ± 0.146 / 0.842 ± 0.088 / 0.842 ± 0.069
2010 / 0.610 ± 0.135 / 0.843 ± 0.083 / 0.832 ± 0.067 / 0.628 ± 0.146 / 0.842 ± 0.088 / 0.842 ± 0.069

Murillo-García et al.

Table A7. Estimates (±SE, when available) of annual survival for peregrine falcons in different parts of its geographic range. CMR-R: Capture-mark–recapture-recovery models that allow the simultaneous use of live recaptures and dead recovery data, GRR: Annual survival of peregrines as estimated from general ring recoveries, TT: Minimal annual survival as estimated from territory turnover of adult peregrines, CMR-RLR: Mark–recapture models that allow the simultaneous use of live recaptures, dead recoveries and live resightings. * Estimates based on the best-supported model for S (model 1, Table 2a).

Survival / Estimation method / Source
Location / Juveniles / Subadults / Adults
South Scotland – North England / 0.600 ± 0.063 / 0.811 ± 0.058 / 0.810 ± 0.034 / CMR-R / Present study*
South Scotland – North England / 0.440 / - / 0.910 / TT / Newton and Mearns (1988)
Midwestern, USA / 0.160 / - / 0.860 / TT / Tordoff and Redig (1997)
Sweden / 0.410 / - / 0.680 / GRR / Lindberg (1977)
Germany / 0.440 / - / 0.720 / GRR / Mebs (1971)
Finland / 0.290 / - / 0.810 / GRR / Mebs (1971)
California, USA / CMR-RLR
Rural / 0.278±0.055 / - / - / Kauffman et al. (2003)
Urban / 0.650 ±0.147 / - / - / Kauffman et al. (2003)
Overall / 0.333 ± 0.059 / 0.870± 0.060 / 0.862 ± 0.024 / Kauffman et al. (2003)
Colorado, USA / 0.544±0.077 / 0.670 ± 0.098 / 0.800 ± 0.054 / CMR-R / Craig et al. (2004)

References

Craig GR, White GC, Enderson JH (2004) Survival, recruitment, and rate of population change of the peregrine falcon population in Colorado. J Wildl Manage 68:1032–1038.

Kauffman MJ, Frick WF, Linthicum J (2003) Estimation of habitat-specific demography and population growth for peregrine falcons in California. Ecol Appl 13:1802–1816.

Lindberg P (1977) The peregrine falcon in Sweden. In: Chancellor RD (ed) Proceedings ICBP World Conference of Birds Prey. International Council for Bird Preservation, London, pp 329–338

Mebs T (1971) Todesursachen und mortalitetsraten beimWanderfalken (Falcoperegrinus) nach dem wiederfunden deutscher und finnisher Ringvogel. Die Vogelwarte, 26, 98–105.

Newton I, Mearns R (1988) Population ecology of peregrines in south Scotland. In: Cade TJ, Enderson JH, Thelander CG, White CM (eds) Peregrine Falcon Populations: Their Management and Recovery. The Peregrine Fund, Boise, pp 651–665

Tordoff HB, Redig PT (1997) Midwest peregrine falcon demography, 1982-1995. J Raptor Res 31:339–346.