School Organisation Plan

ITEM SOC6

Oxfordshire School Organisation Plan 2002–2007 Draft December 2002

SCHOOL ORGANISATION PLAN

Part A

Demographic information relevant to the supply

of school places

CONTEXT

Population, Housing and the Economy

1.  Oxfordshire is one of twelve counties which together with London make up the South East Region. It was the fourth fastest growing county in the South East between 1981 and 1991, with a population growth of 7.2% compared to 4.9% in the previous decade. Between 1991 and 1996, the population of Oxfordshire increased by 4%. The county is predominantly rural in character.

2.  Since the mid 1970’s development in Oxfordshire has been guided by the “country towns” strategy which identified Banbury, Bicester, Didcot and Witney as the preferred locations for new development. This strategy has succeeded in achieving broadly balanced growth in both housing and employment in the country towns. Between 1981 and 1996, just over 43,600 new houses were built in Oxfordshire and a further 11,700 were built between 1996 and 2001. Almost 40% of these were located in the country towns.

Population growth within the South East region, 1981 - 1996

Source: Office for National Statistics Population Monitors

3.  Oxfordshire’s settlement pattern is marked by a range of relatively small settlements, with the City of Oxford at its centre. Oxfordshire has the lowest population density of any county in the South East. Only three settlements have more than 30,000 people (Oxford, Banbury and Abingdon). In 1991 Oxford City had a population of 105,000 permanent residents and 26,000 students. A further seven (Bicester, Carterton, Didcot, Henley, Kidlington, Thame and Witney) had a population between 10,000 and 30,000. These ten settlements account for just over half of the county’s population.

Population of main settlements in Oxfordshire, 1991

4.  About 75% of Oxfordshire is designated as Green Belt, Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty or Areas of High Landscape Value. Oxfordshire has experienced, however, a relatively high proportion of development on green field sites, particularly because of large scale development on the edge of the country towns, and because of the limited opportunity for major re-use of land within existing built up areas.

5.  The Government has recently reviewed its Regional Planning Guidance for the South East (RPG) published in 2001. It provides the framework for the future development of Oxfordshire. The key feature of the revised proposals for Oxfordshire is the provision of an averaged 2430 new dwellings per year up to 2006. After 2006 this rate will continue until Regional Planning Guidance is reviewed. From 1996 to 2011, this would mean planning for an additional 950 dwellings to the 35,500 for the same period in the current Structure Plan. A further 12,150 dwellings would be required by 2016. A review of the Structure Plan to 2016 started with public consultation in 2002.

Economy

6.  In 1991, 87% of Oxfordshire’s residents worked within the county boundary. 77,000 people worked in Oxford, which equates to one in three of all jobs in Oxfordshire. 48% of the people who worked in Oxford City commuted into it.

7.  Oxfordshire’s employment strategy has been traditionally characterised by:

·  A rural agricultural economy

·  Motor manufacturing and service centres in Oxford

·  Smaller manufacturing in service centres in Abingdon, Banbury and Witney

·  Defence and Government research establishments, particularly in the southern part of the county.

Employment change by sector in Oxfordshire 1991 – 1999

8.  The last 20 years have seen marked changes in the Oxfordshire economy which has been one of the most prosperous in the country. Between 1981 and 1991 Oxfordshire’s employment grew by over 30,000, a 14% increase, primarily due to the growth of service sector jobs and self-employment, whilst the traditional agricultural and manufacturing sectors declined. Between 1991 and 1996 the number of jobs in Oxfordshire increased by 27,800 or 12% and in the period 1995 to 2000 increased more sharply with an extra 52,800 jobs or by 20% with an increase in the manufacturing sector. There were 314,700 jobs in the county in 2000. (Source : Annual Business Enquiry)

9.  BMW is the county’s key manufacturer in spite of a sharp decline in jobs in the motor industry. Oxfordshire has also emerged as the world centre for racing car manufacture, design, and research and development, and is the scientific core of Southern England. In 1991 it had the largest number of workers employed in research and development in Great Britain outside London.

10.  Tourism is also an important and expanding sector of the local economy.

11.  Oxfordshire’s successful economic performance is reflected in its relatively low unemployment. Since September 1993 Oxfordshire has had the lowest rate of unemployment of any county in England and Wales. Nevertheless, pockets of high unemployment occur in Oxford and Banbury.

Source: Office for National Statistics

Oxfordshire’s Structure Plan (1996-2011)

12.  The Plan continues the “country towns” strategy with Banbury, Bicester, Didcot and Witney identified as the preferred locations for the new development. The strategy continues to give protection to Oxfordshire’s countryside, towns and villages and the Green Belt around Oxford City. A key feature of this strategy is the location of a substantial proportion of new housing in the country towns and within the built-up area of Oxford.

13.  The Plan provides for about 35,500 dwellings between 1996 and 2011. This compares to 41,700 dwellings for the fifteen year period 1986 to 2001 under the previous Structure Plan. The new Plan provides for about 2,467 new dwellings per year which is slightly lower than the Government’s new proposals of 2,680 per year for Oxfordshire. Between April 1996 and April 2000 9,824 new dwellings had been completed. Sites for a further 8,789 dwellings had planning permission or were allocated in local plans.

14.  Policy H1 of the Structure Plan sets out the amount of housing to be built in each district between 1 April 1996 and 31 March 2011 and the main locations for the new housing. The houses will be distributed as follows:

Cherwell 11,250

Oxford 3,750

South Oxfordshire 8,000

Vale of White Horse 5,750

West Oxfordshire 6,750

TOTAL 35,500

The main locations for the housing will be:

Banbury 3,900 dwellings

Bicester 4,200 dwellings

Didcot 5,500 dwellings

Witney 2,700 dwellings

TOTAL 16,300

15.  Elsewhere, most new housing development should take place in larger settlements where a reasonable range of employment, services and community facilities exist or can be provided. The final distribution of the housing allocation for Didcot between South Oxfordshire and Vale of White Horse districts has been determined in an alteration to the Structure Plan.

16.  The Plan also provides for the construction of a new settlement of about 1000 dwellings (including some 300 existing houses on the site) at RAF Upper Heyford.

FORECASTING PUPIL NUMBERS

Pupil Forecasts for Oxfordshire Schools

17.  The School Capacity Forecasts use the most recent Primary and Secondary pupil forecast information (June 2002). A summary of the forecast pupil numbers above and below capacity for each partnership of schools up to the year 2007 is included in Annex C. Annex D lists all the secondary schools together. Despite issues to do with volatility (see below) there is some certainty about the figures up to 2004. The figures beyond 2004 however, tend to become estimates rather than confident forecasts. One reason for this is that detailed knowledge about housing developments beyond that date is less reliable as projected completions for new housing mainly associated with the Oxfordshire Structure Plan 2011 are absent from these figures. (Housing from the new Structure Plan should start to produce pupils from about 2005 onwards). It will therefore be important to use the figures post 2004 with some caution.

Volatility in Pupil Numbers

18.  The main cause of volatility in pupil numbers stems from intakes relating to MoD establishments. Changes can be swift and unpredictable. Fortunately these changes are usually small and any larger shifts in numbers relate to accommodation changes for which advance warning can be obtained. Information on MoD accommodation is collected annually and fed into the population model.

19.  Changes in military deployment are usually confidential and can change roll numbers very suddenly. The situation at RAF Benson, RAF Brize Norton and the Dalton Barracks is currently being monitored closely. The overall effect on planning tends, however, to be less dramatic simply because the schools likely to be affected are well known e.g. Carterton CP, Gateway, Carswell, RAF Benson, Five Acres (Ambrosden), and Watchfield, Cooper, Carterton Community College, Icknield, Larkmead and Bicester Community College.

20.  Volatile rolls can also result from the opening of new schools which despite having a newly defined catchment area may need to take from surrounding schools to ease the congestion which has built up prior to the opening of the new school. Although this sudden movement of pupils is usually known in advance, it does provide particular problems for the financial management of the schools involved, with budgets changing shape quite markedly and often in mid year.

21.  Schools may experience increased or reduced parental support when headteachers change post. This may affect pupil numbers which is not strictly volatility but gradual change.

22.  Major new developments produce new school populations but despite thorough planning, developments are subject to the economic climate which can cause growth to be fitful. The possible involvement of a District Council in the nomination of families (social housing) can also happen late in the development’s history and will almost certainly increase pupil rolls from that development.

Forecast Methodology – Primary

23.  The current primary school forecasts for Oxfordshire show detailed forecasts, by age, for primary schools in Oxfordshire. These forecasts are based upon the January 2002 PLASC returns. As indicated above, the change in school rolls is largely determined by a school’s popularity and population changes within the intake area (rather than its formal catchment).

24.  Urban intake areas can be quite volatile; rural intake areas tend to be more stable but slight changes can have significant effects. The demographic changes can be a combination of underlying fertility change, migration and new housing. The housing market is currently fairly buoyant.

Forecast Methodology – Secondary

25.  The secondary school forecasts are based on the September 2001 return. The secondary school forecasts are the result of several sets of input data, a large computer model and a protracted amount of fine-tuning and checking.

26.  The secondary forecasts start from the actual rolls at September 2001. The transfer patterns of pupils leaving primary schools in July 2000 are analysed to produce a set of partnership schools and associated proportions of each relevant year group transferring to each secondary school. This produces an intake mix, which reflects parental choice and does not depend on catchment areas. In addition, increased staying-on rates in the sixth form are taken into account.

27.  The forecast intakes, for future years, from these partnership schools, use the primary school forecasts from the previous January (2001), published in March 2001. The sixth form transfers are plotted over the last seven years and estimates of the future transfer rates are made. Additional information is acquired on cross border partnership schools and non-standard intakes to produce the final forecasts. No attempt is made to change high intake forecasts, especially where standard numbers are clearly exceeded.

SCHOOL PLACES IN OXFORDSHIRE

28.  The total number of schools maintained by the Authority as at 1 April 2002 was 234 (Primary) and 45 (Secondary). These figures include Oxford City’s first and middle (deemed secondary) schools. In summer term 2002 the number of pupils on roll in Oxfordshire primary schools was 46494 (excluding nursery) with a total of 49,410 places (94.1%) In January 2002 there were 37,635 pupils attending Oxfordshire secondary schools with 42,643 places (88.2%). Some of these pupils will be in oversubscribed schools. The number of places in denominational primary schools is 19,775 (39.5%) Anglican and 3,093 (6.2%) Roman Catholic. The number of places in denominational secondary schools is 2,448 (5.7%) Anglican and 1,094 (2.6%) Roman Catholic; plus 678 places (1.5%) in St. Augustine’s which is currently joint Roman Catholic and Anglican. The number and percentage of schools with more than 25% surplus places and at least 30 surplus places is primary 24 (9.8%) and secondary 2 (6.7%). The likely impact of the new DfES regulations for measuring capacity is being assessed. The Council has decided that a figure of 10% unfilled primary and secondary places would be sensible for planning purposes. At the present time there is a specific need for Oxfordshire to maintain spare capacity to:

1.  meet projected increases in pupil numbers, especially in the country towns where considerable growth is expected between 2001-2011 as part of the Structure Plan;

2.  enable it to respond appropriately to Government initiatives eg limiting class sizes for five, six and seven year olds.

29.  Carrying more than 10% surplus places is not consistent with the effective and efficient use of resources. In its strategic response to the issue of unfilled places above the 10% cushion the Authority will pay special regard to:

1.  the closure or amalgamation of schools;

2.  the consolidation of split site schools onto one site;

3.  reviewing areas within Oxfordshire where differences in transfer ages exist to better utilise school places;

4.  the removal of temporary accommodation;

5.  the use of unfilled places for alternative school use e.g. playgroups, nursery classes, SEN units, Community including Neighbourhood Nurseries and Schools plus, Adult Education, voluntary organisations; and other compatible uses e.g. private language schools.

6.  the proportional balance of denominational provision in discussion with Diocesan Boards.

Nursery Provision in Oxfordshire

30.  Since 1997 progress has been made towards the Council’s objective of increasing the percentage of the 3-4 year old population having access to nursery education. In 1996/97, 28.2% all 3 and 4 year olds attended some form of LEA nursery provision. This figure increased to 30.1% in 1997/98 and 35% in 2002. The percentage of 3 and 4 year olds in non-maintained settings is 61% so that 96% of these children are in some form of pre-school setting. However, only 51% of 3 year olds are taking up their entitlement and the county has been given a target to increase take-up to 85% of all 3 year olds by September 2004.