The impact of the University on Housing

The Guildford Residents Association (GRA) sees future wealth creation in the borough coming from carefully targeted growth in its knowledge based industries and the University has a key role to play in leading this growth. However, the University must do this responsibly, showing that it is minimising the impact of its plan on the residents.Also we are concerned that the housing need in Guildford has been determined by ONS population forecasts which have been distorted by the number of foreign students attending the University of Surrey and could be much smaller if the University built more student accommodation as they had promised.

Broken promises

In 2000, when the University was lobbying to release Manor Farm from the Green Belt,it promised to use the land to build accommodation for 4,790 students and 300 University staff,and agreed to accommodate at least 60% of its students on campus. So far only accommodation for 1,665 students(about a third) and for 30 staff (only a tenth) has been built.The University currently has planning permission for student accommodation to house 2,120 students which it has not built and,according to theirEstate Strategy 2009 – 2019, it plans to house only 42% of its students on campus.

In the run up to the 2003 Local Plan, when the University was lobbying to release Manor Farm from the Green Belt,it also promised in writing on two occasions never to develop Blackwell Farm.But in the “Call for Sites” preceding the drafting of the present Local Plan, the Universityshifted its position and put forward Blackwell Farm as a possible site for development.

Blackwell Farm,on the northern slopes of the Hogs Back, measures about 139 hectares (343 acres). Based on say £6,000 per acre for agricultural land in the 1980s, it would have cost the University about £2m. According to Savills Land Agents, as development land it is worth between £1.2 - £1.4m per acre making it potentially worth about £480million.

In the Draft Local Plan, Blackwell Farm is allocated for 2,250 homes, a new primary school, a small extension to the Surrey Research Park and a new Park & Ride accessed from the A31. The university hasstated thatit doesn’t need this land for its own expansion.The University simply want to sell it to developers for profit. The Green Belt, as stated in the NPPF, is a national asset – not something to be sold off for profit.

Student accommodation and the impact on affordable housing

There are currently 14,094 students at the University of Surrey (excluding distance learners). According to their Accommodation Officer they have space for only 5,100 students on campus. If students who commute or live at home are excluded, there are about 7,500 full time students who need to find accommodation in or around Guildford. Allowing roughly three students to a house, this equates to about 2,500 affordable homes in Guildford which are occupied by students; houses which could be occupied by hospital workers, shop assistants, council employees, teachers and other key workers.

The impact of students on population forecasts for Guildford

Population forecasts are determined by three key factors: births and deaths, movement within the UK, and net international migration. According to the latest figures from the ONS, in theperiod from 2012 to 2031, the population of Guildford is projected to grow by some 21,000. However, if we exclude net international migration, the population is actually projectedto fall by about 2,000. Therefore the entire population growth in Guildford Borough is due to net international migration.

Guildford’s own reports have already identified that the major component of demographic growth in Guildford derives from the changes over a short period in student numbers. The years 2008 to 2011 saw a period of particularly high growth in foreign students attending the University (a 35% increase) which considerably inflated international migration figures and had the affect of distorting population forecasts going forward.The Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA) published a year ago shows that the majority of the international migration in the Guildford Borough is due to foreign students attending the University.

The Guildford Residents Association (GRA) proposes that:

  • The University should house the growth in its foreign studentson its current campus.
  • It is not valid to believe that all these foreign students will settle in Guildford at the end of their studies.
  • It is not safe to base the “objectively assessed housing need” on a population projection which has been distorted by an unusually high influx of international students between2008 and 2011.

The current West Surrey SHMA has estimated a housing need of 549 houses per annum based purely on demographic indicators, which, as we have seen, is largely being driven by foreign students. However,looking at the University of Surrey’s Estate Strategy 2009 – 2019 it can be seen that they only plan to grow at 2% per annum, which equates to about 300 extra students each year. If the university were to accommodate only 40% on campus, only 180 extra students would need accommodation in the town, which equates to about 60 new houses each year (not 549).

We are concerned by the agenda for growth driven by the M3 Local Enterprise Partnership and the University. One of the stated objectives of the LEP is “to maximize the provision of housing in Guildford”. The University’s Dr Malcolm Parry sits on the main board of the M3 LEP, and the University stands to realise huge profits (in the order of £480million) if Blackwell Farm is released from the Green Belt. The Leader of the Council, Cllr Mansbridge, also sits on the main board of the M3 LEP, and residents need to be reassured that their interests have primacy over those of the LEP and that the latter's decision-taking is not compromised by a ‘conflict of interest’.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the housing need in Guildford has been determined by ONS population forecasts which have been distorted by the number of students attending the University of Surrey. The housing need in Guildford would be alleviated if the University built more student accommodation.

The GRA fully recognisesthat the University is a very valuable asset to the town, but urges it to house its students on campus as promised and not to act as a land speculator to the detriment of Guildford’s environment.

Appendix

Extracts from Manor Park Development Brief:

5.2 The University wishes to grow from current levels of about 9,000 full time equivalent (FTE) students to accommodate about 12,500 FTE, of whom it is planned that about 60% will be resident on campus. This expansion creates a need for new academic and research buildings, support buildings such as library and dining facilities, sports facilities, and staff and student residences.

6.11 The total number of students the University wishes to accommodate is about 4,790, so between 650 and 1,000 flats will ultimately be provided. Up to 300 dwellings should be provided for University key workers in the form of 1, 2 and 3 bedroom accommodation. The larger units will be for families, and will be provided with private gardens."

July 2015