November 6, 2015
Dear Investors,
In my September 30th market analysis letter, I wrote that it was clear that September 16th was a Fibonacci phi mate turning point that started a decline that would retest the August lows. I also identified the next Fibonacci phi mate date for the middle of November because there was a cluster of dates around that time. It appears now that November 17th plus or minus up to three trading days is the most definitive date. Most of the Fibonacci phi mate dates this year were market tops which then started a trend lower. It seemed unlikely in late September/early October with all of the poor economic data that the markets would actually rally for six to seven weeks. Most market forecasters were predicting another decline before a rally into or near the next Fibonacci phi mate turning date. However, the decline never occurred and the markets enjoyed their best six weeks of the year. It took six weeks for the markets to recover what they lost in about ten trading days. Even though this rally has extended well beyond projections, it still looks like a bear market pattern that will retest the August lows and possibly the lows from last October.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 246.79 points, or 1.4%, to finish the week at 17,910.33, and is now up 0.5% this year. The S&P 500 Index gained 19.84 points, or 1.0%, this week to close at 2,099.20, and is up 2.0% this year. The NASDAQ Composite gained 93.37 points this week, or 1.9%, to close at 5,147.12 and is up 8.7% for the year. After lagging the major indices for the last three weeks, the Russell 2000 jumped 37.89 points, or 3.3%, to finish the week at 1,199.33, and is down just 0.4% for 2015.
Most economists believed that the Federal Reserve had an opportunity to raise interest rates earlier this year. When that did not happen, many believed that interest rates would be increased during the Federal Open Markets Committee meeting in September. However, that did not happen either. The country’s monetary policy should not be linked to the stock market, but under the current Administration, it seems that it is. The September rate hike did not occur even after the markets completed a mini crash since the FOMC cited global weakness. The market turned lower until a dismal September Jobs Report led investors to believe that interest rates would stay low longer. Now, after a six week rally, Federal Reserve Chairwoman, Janet Yellen, has left the door wide open for a possible December rate hike. This was supported by an “outstanding” October Jobs Report that stated that 271,000 new jobs were added and that the unemployment rate dropped to 5.0%. The U.S. or global economies are not better than they were six weeks ago. The stock markets are much better but there is virtually no evidence of a thriving economy except for a Jobs Report that is likely inaccurate.
As I have said before, you cannot get accurate statistics from the IRS about 2014 tax returns filed after six or nine months but the Department of Labor can tell you how many jobs were added six days after the month’s end. The October Jobs Report assumes that 165,000 of the 271,000 jobs were from new businesses created last month. It is simply a plug, estimate, guess or whatever you want to call it. The unemployment rate is 5% because more Americans stopped looking for work. Our current labor participation rate is 62.4%, the lowest level since the 1970’s. On Friday, consumer credit for September was $28.9 billion; economists were expecting $18 billion. However, this was overshadowed by the Jobs Report. If so many jobs were created, why did consumer credit jump? The answer is simple, the Jobs Report is not an accurate reflection of the economy and yet the Federal Reserve relies so heavily on it. If the markets turn lower on or about the next Fibonacci phi mate date and continue lower, I would not be surprised to see a disappointing November Jobs Report and no interest rate hike in December.
Just as the Federal Reserve has been saying over the last two years that it will be raising interest rates, I have been saying that the downside potential of the stock market is greater than its upside potential. It is difficult to resist the temptation to chase a rally but a balanced approach to investing could reduce your risk. Our balanced, tax-efficient approach to financial planning and investment selection can educate you on how to construct an asset allocation that meets your risk tolerance. Our objective is to avoid market downturns and participate in upward trends. It is not market-timing or trying to capture the absolute top or bottom. This is the value, or alpha, that we provide to our clients. If you want to discuss your financial plan and tax strategies or would like to refer a friend or family member, please call our office or email . It is time to put our B.E.L.I.E.V.E. Wealth Management process to work for you.
Best Regards,
Vincent Pallitto,CPA, CFP®
Certified College Planning Specialist
Summit Asset Management, Inc.
www.summitasset.com
973-301-2360
973-301-2370 Fax
A branch office of, and securities offered through LPL Financial
MemberFINRA SIPC
You cannot invest directly in a market index, market indices are for benchmark purposes. The information in this market commentary is obtained from various news sources, Stockcharts.com and technicalindicatorindex.com.
Fibonacci Phi Date (also known as Fibonacci Time Extensions) is a technical indicator used to seek to identify the timing of significant price movement in the market, and is based on the Fibonacci Number Sequence.
The Hindenburg Omen is a combination of technical factors that attempt to measure the health of the NYSE, and by extension, the stock market as a whole. The goal of the indicator is to signal increased probability of a stock market crash.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you consult your financial advisor prior to investing.
The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is comprised of 30 stocks that are major factors in their industries and widely held by individuals and institutional investors.
The NASDAQ Composite Index measures all NASDAQ domestic and non-U.S. based common stocks listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market.
The Russell 2000 Index is an unmanaged index generally representative of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 index, which represents approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 Index.
The Blue Chip Index is a stock index that tracks the shares of the top-performing publicly traded companies. These indices are unmanaged, which cannot be invested into directly.
Past performance is no guarantee of future result.