Influence of FTA On Public Policy In Flanders
/ The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA):12 & 13 May 2011
FTA and Grand Societal Challenges:
Shaping and Driving Structural and Systemic Transformations
Influence of FTA On Public Policy In Flanders
Authors: / EllenMarleen
Type: / Analysis of the influence of a Flemish FTA on policy in Flanders
Geographic Coverage: / Flanders, regional level – policy domain of technology and innovation.
Applied Methods: / Qualitative analysis of the influence of the FTA on Flemish public policy
Evaluation:
Impacts: / Influence on strategic technology and innovation policy in Flanders
Impact on policy in a product-related as well as a process-related way
Organiser: / Policy Research Centre - Governmental organization in Flanders 2007-2011
Research project: Evidence-based policy-making: matching supply and demand of quantitative policy information and foresight.
Keywords: / Flanders, technology and innovation, policy influence, public policy
Purpose
This brief presents some preliminary findings of a research project aimed at understanding the influence of policy-oriented foresight on public policy in Flanders.A FTA identifying six strategic clusters for Technology and Innovation policy in Flandersis analyzed. The results of this analysis show that the FTA did have a significant impact on the policy process, but might prove to serve more as a reference point for future FTAs which will then give shape to long-term technology and innovation policy in Flanders.
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Influence of FTA On Public Policy In Flanders
Introduction
Policy-oriented foresight can be considered a specific type of foresight, i.e. foresight taking place in a public policy context (Van Asselt et al., 2010). It is aimed at supporting the decision-making process (van ‘t Klooster, 2007), anticipating as much as possible very different, alternative developments, and trying to ensure effective long term public policy. The policy process itself is non-linear and often depending on the opening of ‘policy windows’ (Kingdon, 1995). This leaves the specific role of exercises aimed at strengthening its evidence base a little unclear. The same can be said in the case of policy-oriented foresight. Little evidence is available that policy actors use the outputs of foresight aimed at supporting policy decisions.
The literature on foresight contains different studies which identify factors for success (see for example Dammers, 2000; Glenn et al., 2001; in ’t Veld, 2001; Van den Boogaard, 2002; Kronjee, 2002; De Smedt, 2005; De Smedt, 2006; Van der Duin et al., 2008; Fuerth, 2009; Dirven et al., 2009; Institute for Alternative Futures, 2010). These factors were also used in the research project to analyse three case studies. A FTA identifying six strategic clusters for Technology and Innovation policy in Flanders served as a first case for analysis. To assess if and how this FTA actually influenced policy decisions, inspiration was found in evaluation literature, since studies on foresight rarely address this question.
The next chapter provides insight in different aspects of the FTA that served as a first case in the research. An analysis on the influence of the FTA study is followed by a first set of recommendations on how to improve the relationship between policy-oriented foresight and public policy.
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Influence of FTA On Public Policy In Flanders
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Influence of FTA On Public Policy In Flanders
FTAin Flanders
The VRWI or Flemish Council for Science and Innovation (formerly Flemish council for Science Policy) conducted a FTA on innovation and technology in Flandersfrom 2005 to 2006. The VRWI is a strategic advisory council in the policy domain of science and innovation. It advises the Flemish government on its science and technology policy either in a proactive manner or at the Flemish government’s request. The council is a multi-actor environment where different stakeholders in the field of science and innovation meet. These stakeholders have an industrial background, but they also include scientists from universities or representatives from other knowledge-institutions in Flanders,as well as government representatives from the administrative or political level. This environment where the VRWI acts as a boundary organization (Guston, 2001) between science, politics and society will prove to be important for the influence of the FTA it conducted on public policy in Flanders.
Development
The FTA was set up in 2005 at the VRWI’sown initiative. It aimed at “providing a long-term reference point for technology and innovation in Flanders” (Smits et al. 2006:10).The starting point for the studycan be traced back to as far as 1997, when the VRWI and other key stakeholders in the technology and innovation field, felt the need to gain more insight in the scientific, economic and societal developments that could possibly influence the welfare and wellbeing of Flemish citizens. Together with a group of university researchers, a process was set upto develop an appropriate methodology that would serve to assess this problem. Methodological inspiration was found in FTAsfrom Japan and Germany, as well as those conducted at the European level.
Initially, the FTA had been considered quite a broad exercise, addressing different societal, economic and scientific problems. However, this broad focus was not retained. The VRWI had set up the FTA proactively, butthrough consultation with political actors the scope of the assessment became more focused on technology and innovation itself. Central to the analysis would be those developments in the science, technologyand innovation field necessary for Flanders to remain competitive within the European area and in a more globalized world.
Once the focus on technology and innovation was established, the different steps to conduct the FTA were put in practice. The VRWI took the lead, although it worked closely together with the scientific research group that had developed the methodological approach.
Methodology
The FTA was conducted in three consecutive steps, leading to the formulation of specific policy priorities for 6 sectors (or clusters, as referred to in the study) of technology and innovation in Flanders. The third step can be considered the actual foresight exercise. There, the future was assessed on a mid-term horizon of about ten years, with the period 2002-2004 as reference point and 2015 as horizon for the study. As will be elaborated upon below, the study was highly participative and intensive, using the Delphi-method.
A first step toward the foresight was taken by conducting a SWOT-analysis on different sectors in technology and innovation in Flanders.
In a second phase the results of this analysis were coupled with those of a broader European foresight technology study. Based on this synthesis, a high-level group of experts (the ‘captains of industry’ in Flanders) identified six strategic clusters for technology and innovation in Flanders. These cover a broad range of technological and innovative domains and are clustered on a thematic base.
The six strategic clusters that were identified by the high-level group are 1) transport – logistics – services – supply chain management, 2) ICT and services in health care, 3) health care prevention and treatment; food and agriculture, 4) new materials – nanotechnology – manufacturing industry, 5) ICT for socio-economic innovation, and 6) energy and environment for services and manufacturing industry.
Execution of the first two phases took around a year to be completed. The select expert consultation at the end of phase two set the stage for a broader consultation of experts via the Delphi-method in the third phase. This final phase was framed within the six strategic clusters identified. The actors consulted were all R&D expertsin the field of technology and innovation in Flanders.In total, 130 R&D experts participated in the third phase of the study, which took six months to be completed. The experts were divided along the six strategic clusters identified and, using the Delphi-method, were asked to assess 160 possible future developments, as well as the current and future capacities in the fieldin Flanders.
Via two or more rounds of discussion, a consensus was reached between the experts in each of the strategic clusters. They identified 30 specific priorities in technology and innovation. Additionally, 85 of the 130 experts agreed to evaluate critical factors for the achievement of these priorities. The VRWI Council then validated these results and formulated specific recommendations towards the different stakeholders: universities, industry and the government. The recommendations are especially of importance to the government and the way in which it can make use of the results of the study. A more detailed account on the role of government within a broader technology and innovation context is provided in the next chapter.
Outputs
The FTA was captured in two reports. A summary report, firstly, introduces the 30 priorities, the factors for success and the set of recommendations. Secondly, a more technical report elaborates upon the FTA process itself. It provides a detailed account of the three phases that constitute the FTA.
Additionally, the Council and its president took specific action to promote the results of the study with a broad range of actors.They did this by setting up presentations and road shows in order for the results to be diffused. Important was that stakeholder support by universities and industry was not only established before and during the FTA process, but also continued after the FTA was conducted. This assured diffusion of the results along a first and important set of actors. A third important stakeholder, government, was much less intensely involved in the FTA. Diffusion of the results of the study among political as well as administrative actors is, however, an important factor for the study to have a real impact on technology and innovation in Flanders. The next paragraphs assess to what extent this was the case.
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Influence of FTA On Public Policy In Flanders
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Analysis of policy Influence
Did the FTA influence the Flemish government’s strategic decision making process for technology and innovation? First, an elaboration upon the concept of influence itself is required. Also, the broader technology and innovation policy context in Flandersneeds to be described, before addressing the question of influence of our case on policy in Flanders in a third paragraph.
Aspects of influence
Influence of FTA on policy also called diffusion or -from the perspective of policy actors named utilization-can beanalysed along specific dimensions (Kirkhart, 2000). These are the source (product or process) of influence, the intention (intended or not) of it and the timeit takes for influence to be attained (during the process, at the end of the policy cycle or via effectson the long-term). Our attention goes to the first dimension.
The source for influence of FTA on policy can be product-related or process-related. Product-related influence is the influence of the output of a foresight exercise. Usually, the results of a study are presented in a report. The output can influence policy in different ways. We differentiate between four types of product-related influence: 1) direct instrumental influence, that is reflected in official policy documents; 2) conceptual influence, as an ‘enlightenment’ (Weiss, 1980) of policy makers; 3) agenda-setting influence, by which new topics, previously not under attention of policy makers can be discerned; and 4) political or strategic influence, being the“misuse” of foresight by political actors, such as the government through legitimizing its current policy or by parliamentary opposition parties through criticizing government actions.Some authors stress that the process in itself can also have a significant influence on policy actors (Patton, 1997; Greene, 1988). Their involvement in an early stage of the process, might promote a more future-oriented view on policy, or a better understanding of the possible added value of foresight for policy. Indirectly, this type of influence might enhance the product-related use of foresight since now policy actors are more receptive to its outcomes.
Policy context
From a historical perspective, technology and innovation policy in Flanderscan be characterized as predominantly technology-pushed. Policy ‘demand’wasand is to a large extent adapted to industrial and scientific ‘supply’. In other words, technology and innovation policy in Flandersis developed bottom-up. Funding is to a large extent responsive to R&D policy of industrial actors and universities. It is to a much lesser extent coordinated (or steered) by government within a broader strategic framework.The FTA tried to provide such a framework, by identifying future technology and innovation priorities. Via the recommendations, it also assigned a specific role to the Flemish government for the framework to be implemented.In general, the Flemish government could assume different roles, ranging from a hands-off and inspiring position (bottom-up policy approach) to a hands-on, actively steering role (top-down). The latter was specifically acknowledged for making strategic policy choices and taking the necessary actions linked to them.
Assuming that the FTA served as the required input for the establishment of a strategic framework on technology and innovation in Flanders, the involvement of a broad range of stakeholders was not only a logical consequence in a supply-driven policy domain. More importantly, it provided the necessary stakeholder support for the priorities to be implemented.Especially when these priorities were to be defined on a strategic level by a hands-on, steering government.
Analysis
Methodology
The assessment of the influence of the FTA on policy was carried out based on a thorough document analysis and interviews. The document analysis included strategic policy documents, policy briefs, white papers, parliamentary documents, etc. The interviews were carried out with political and administrative stakeholders, as well as members of the VRWI responsible for the study.
Results
The FTA report was published at the end of thethen Flemish government’s legislative period. At first, the report did not have an influence on public policy since the policy directions has already been decided upon and were further enacted towards the end of the legislature. Later on, however the FTA, as a product,did significantly influence public policy in Flanders in several ways.
First, there is reference to its results in official strategic policy documents, such as the broader strategic framework project ‘Flanders in Action’set up by the Flemish government to make Flanders a frontrunner region in the social as well as in the economic domain.This emphasis on the strategic level was translated into the Flemish government’s policy note 2009-2014 on innovation policy and the related policy briefs and actions. The study is also well known at a more conceptual level among a broad range of actors in the policy domain. Especially the first two phases of the study (SWOT and relative positioning of Flanders in Europe) serve as a knowledge base for political and administrative actors in government. With regard to the influence of the study on the policy agenda,political attention seems to have gone most to theperceived need to make strategic choices for the domain, and to a lesser extent to the priorities themselves.There does not seem to have been any politically strategic influence of the study.
Thus, we can discern specific policy influence on a middle-range term, i.e. 3 to 5 years after the study had been published. Additionally, the study itself is currently still on the policy agenda, although less prominently when first picked up by government (and promoted by its policy entrepeneurs, i.e. the VRWI-team and president). It also needs to be emphasized that the FTA has had a more than important process-related influence. It is considered a first and important exercise in the policy domain aimed, quite explicitly, at bringing about a strategic, long-term vision and making policy choices in technology and innovation in Flanders. It has cleared the path for future assessments of the policy domain on the long-term and introduced an important dynamicwith actors in the policy domain itself. This dynamic will not necessarily imply an increase in the product-related influence of the study. Several relevant actors indicate for example that a follow-up FTA is necessary to develop an adequate long-term strategic policy in the domain of technology and innovation, since this FTA dates from 2006 and its horizon is 2015.
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Influence of FTA On Public Policy In Flanders
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Influence of FTA On Public Policy In Flanders
Conclusion
We conclude this brief by highlighting the main points of the study. The research project aimed at analysing influence of foresight on policy. A first case was an FTA by the Flemish Council for Science and Innovation. This FTA was carried out from 2005 to 2006 and led to the formulation of policy priorities and recommendations on technology and innovation in Flanders. Contrary to the classical paradigm in technology and innovation in Flanders, the study clearly emphasized an active role of Flemish government in deciding upon and creating a strategic framework. This would allow other stakeholders to use it as a reference point for their activities.
Did the study influence strategic policy in Flanders, as the VRWI intended? It did, however, on a broader level than merely influencing policy directly. The study also had an important conceptual influence on policy makers and administrative actors and it created a dynamic that might improve the diffusion of future long-term assessments.
Indeed, the latter might prove to be the most important influence of the study on technology and innovation policy, since the FTA itself dates from 2006 and was set up with 2015 as its horizon. It is because of this that the need is felt to carry out a follow-up study that would be able to capture long-term strategic policy goals with the current situation as a starting point. Therefore, the study might prove to be a milestone for a forward-looking attitude in technology and innovation in Flanders.
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Sources and References
Dammers, E., (2000), Leren van de toekomst. Over de rol van scenario‟s bij strategische beleidsvorming, Delft: Uitgeverij Eburon.