Annexe A1 – Terms of Reference
Annexe A1
Terms of Reference
1. Presentation of the Project
The project revolves around two missions carried out in parallel:
- The preparation of an immediate actions plan aiming at re-establishing a minimum transport capacity that is able to carry passengers within the city and to and from its periphery.
- The preparation of a medium- and long term public transport plan for Greater Belgrade, based on future urban development and an institutional coherence that shall allow the development of a rational policy of complementary transport means.
These two parts shall include actions to be treated in detail hereafter. These two sections include many common tasks, whose joint achievement shall permit to optimize the necessary resources.
2. Immediate Actions Plan
2.1 Diagnosis
To make a diagnosis of transport infrastructures and equipment. To begin with, it shall mean establishing an inventory of the urban network (infrastructure, rolling stock, maintenance materials and equipment, etc) and suburban rail lines, highlighting those priority actions that should be undertaken, both on the plan of the rehabilitation of the infrastructures and rolling stock, as well as on an operational plan. An assessment of the cost of the reconstruction and/or rehabilitation works of the network with regards to fixed infrastructures and equipment and rolling stock shall also be carried out.
The main tasks at this stage shall be as follows:
- An inventory of the urban transport infrastructure (tracks, depots and workshops, maintenance and cleaning centers).
- An inventory of the rail infrastructure (switching points, power supply, signaling and telecommunications, stations and stopping points, maintenance depots and workshops).
- Condition of the urban rolling stock: types of stock, fleet, age, state, capacity, etc.
- Condition of the suburban rolling stock: types of stock, quantities, age, state, capacity, commercial speed, etc.
- Definition of the steps to be taken to optimize existing infrastructures.
- Definition of the necessary investment needs to be able to re-establish the urban and suburban networks to a nominal capacity.
2.2 Audit
To analyze the institutional structures that manage the transport system of Belgrade and its satellite cities.
To audit the human, technical and financial capacity of the local companies that are in charge of the operation of the Belgrade urban and suburban networks.
The main tasks to accomplish at this stage shall be the following:
- An institutional analysis (definition of the legal, organizational and regulatory structures for public transport).
- An audit of the urban network organization: human resources, management and finances, network operation.
- An audit of the suburban railroad network: human resources, management and finances, operation of the suburban network and its connections with the urban and long-distance networks.
2.3 Actions Plan
To determine the urgent steps to be taken (short-term actions to be identified and placed in order of importance) to ensure a reliable urban traffic that is pertinent and that answers the expectations of the population, especially regarding fare policy, frequency, duration of journeys and with a cost acceptable to the community. At this level, it is important to point out that the accomplishment of a joint Public Transport Plan shall permit to direct coherently the Immediate Actions Plan, according to the data furnished by the medium- and long-term forecasts and the urban development axes foreseen.
To assist Belgrade urban transports in the management of the urban lines (buses and tramways), as well as railways suburban lines.
To make a preliminary assessment of the reconstruction and rehabilitation costs[1] of the urban network and of the suburban rail lines. There shall then be an assessment of costs, depending on the development possibilities of the Belgrade public transport network, in connection with the perspectives of the taking off of the Yugoslavian economy.
To define a training program establishing an order of priorities and the needs in technical assistance.
The main tasks at this stage shall be as follows:
- The preparation of an immediate actions plan for the urban network: organization, stock, infrastructures and operation.
- The preparation of an immediate actions plan for the suburban network: organization, stock, infrastructures and operation.
- To search the association of the means between the two networks, perhaps even a possible integration[2] between means.
- The definition of a training program: a new inventory and analysis of the needs and the order of priorities.
3. Public Transport Plan
3.1 Reminder of the Objectives
The transport plan for Greater Belgrade aims at giving the transport authorities, through urban and public transport movement control, organization and management, an essential contribution to the harmonious and controlled development of Greater Belgrade during the next 20 years, while trying to respect the European Union Directives.
It also aims, while taking into account the different urban and transport components of the Yugoslavian capital, at answering the expectations of the population and elected officials, by enhancing each method within its own field of pertinence within the most coherent and efficient multi-modal system possible.
The transport plan should propose the best possible strategy to integrate and develop all public transport means, based on more or less long term measures (immediate actions plan, short-, medium- and long-term plans).
As an indication, the proposed strategy should include the following points:
- Definition of the institutional structure managing the transport system of Belgrade and its satellite cities.
- Definition in principle of a legal, organizational and regulatory framework of public transport, highlighting the interactions between the public and private sectors.
- Definition of a phased program of investments for the public transport network, taking into account financing capabilities.
- Definition of a fare policy for public transport.
- Preparation of an urban transport planning process and the necessary means.
3.2 Methodology
The preparation of this transport plan shall hinge around five large stages, which are:
3.2.1. Diagnosis of the Present Situation
The aim of this stage is to understand urban development by underlining the interfaces in this development and its coherence with public transport systems.
The diagnosis of the present situation includes a global analysis of the urban development of Greater Belgrade and the performance of its transport system (road network and public transport), a compilation of precise data on the demo-economic characteristics of Greater Belgrade (population, employment, etc) and a detailed study of the public transport network. Special attention shall be given to the analysis of the institutional situation of Belgrade's transport, so as to be able to grasp the general transport organization regulations and to verify its adaptability vis-à-vis the urban reality of Greater Belgrade.
The study of these points shall be carried out based on analysis made and data already obtained, completed by additional investigations, the volume of which would be determined during the initialization phase.
After having assessed the main mobility parameters, the consultant shall then analyze, by mode –including interactions among these modes– the effects on the environment of the public transport systems, the cost of these journeys to the individual and the community, both on the investment and performance spheres.
The optimum treatment of all these elements shall allow making a diagnosis that underlines the main malfunctions, explaining their cause and proposing corrections.
The main tasks of this phase shall be as follows:
- Definition of the field of study and its divisions.
- Compilation and analysis of all available data and studies.
- Centring of the objectives.
- Preparation of an inception report.
3.2.2. Additional Data Collection
It shall consist in collecting all existing data (studies and surveys), present and projected socio-economic studies (useful for modelling step), as well as future large development projects that could be potential generators of traffic.
These data should permit obtaining a vision of the city's urban development and the interaction with transport problems in Greater Belgrade, while keeping in mind its history.
Among the necessary data should be noted those concerning:
- The urban development of Greater Belgrade: administrative divisions of the area, its growth during the last decades, functional organization and evolution of the area, relations between Belgrade, the region and the rest of the country.
- The evolution of travel needs: population structure, activity, household characteristics, motorization, mobility, modal split and travel purposes, during the day, the peak period, and at peak hour.
- The transport system: general characteristics of the road network and its functioning, general characteristics of public transport (status of operators, institutional environment, network structure, data on supply and demand, financial situation of the companies, etc), analysis of investments and past works related to public transport.
Should there be a lack of up-to-date and pertinent data, the consultant shall define the surveys and studies necessary to update the geographical information system and modelling (photo surveys, household surveys, screenline surveys, quality surveys, socio-economic studies, etc). The impact on the estimated planning schedule of these surveys shall be assessed and integrated into the planning schedule that will be prepared during the inception phase.
Then follows a critical reading of all available data and the realization of a modelling base. This base shall constitute the foundation of the following two phases, which shall permit making short-, medium- and long-term projections, to appraise the natural dynamics of Greater Belgrade and to put the diagnosis into perspective.
This modelling step shall be carried out by a specialist on demand forecasts.
In effect, in a community the size of Belgrade, and within the framework of this study, the future demand can only be assessed by using a simulation model. Such a model needs, so that it can function properly, demo-economic data, a coherent zoning system, mobility parameters, short- and long-term evolution hypothesis of road networks and public transport.
The different assessment phases of the demand are as follows:
- Trip generation.
- Trip distribution.
- Modal split.
- Trip Assignment onto the networks.
Calculation of future demand shall be made after having calibrated the model on the reference situation. The different coefficients of the model, which allow it to reconstitute the actual situation –depending on the hypothesis retained– have resulted in the evolution of the demo-economic data, the mobility, the modal split hypothesis and the networks, so that it will be possible to obtain the travelling demand at the projected perspective.
Our recent experience in Central Europe lets us suppose that the data available shall be certainly rare, not always very pertinent and too often unreliable. We hope, therefore, to carry out all necessary additional surveys and studies with the help of our local partners.
The main tasks at this stage are as follows:
- Definition of additional data collection and realization.
- Analysis of additional surveys.
- Setting up of the modelling step and of the geographical information system.
- Adjustment of the traffic forecast model.
- First definition of the short-, medium- and long-term development hypothesis.
- Preparation of an immediate actions plan.
3.2.3. Elaboration of Scenarios
The diagnosis of the present situation and the orientations supplied by the different competent actors of the transport sector, shall serve as a base for the preparation of contrasted and coherent scenarios, adapted to satisfy the needs made evident and by predictable evolutions.
As the diagnosis could show malfunctions at the level of the different organizing authorities, it could be proposed setting up a new structure, whose functioning is to be clarified in the following phase, but whose main principles are to be described in this part, so that it can be set it up as soon as possible.
These scenarios underlie, therefore, the following fundamental points:
Priority given to public transport, the needs regarding multi-modal integration (physical, of rates, etc) and, especially, the creation of pluri-modal centres (interchange centres), the opening of new activity centres and parking management.
These scenarios shall, therefore, be a combination of a transport policy and public transport networks alternatives. These two parameters shall, in effect, permit measuring the impact of the themes described above on the level of future travel demand, depending on the type of mode used.
Modal choice: the behaviour presently observed shall be studied, with the necessary reserves due to the difficult local context, and tests shall be carried out on these realistic future modal split hypothesis thanks to Systra's experience in this field.
Networks: the hypothesis of future networks shall be built according to future urban organization schemas, to existing networks and to projects identified on the short-, medium- and long-term. Urban development hypothesis and new infrastructure projects shall be verified to ascertain they are adequate. As to public transport, these scenarios shall concern the restructuring of existing network around heavy modes (or projects of heavy modes).
The complexity in processing a scenario and the combination of processes that it generates make it impossible to test a great number of scenarios. It would be preferable, therefore, to have a limit of three (maximum) scenarios that are significantly contrasted, which illustrate the policies retained.
These scenarios shall be validated by the competent authorities, especially of the City of Belgrade, before going on to the following stage of the study.
The main tasks during this stage shall be as follows:
- Exploitation and analysis of field surveys.
- Modelling of the trip demand.
- Evolution of the urban structure and population and employment forecasts.
- Preparation of the main principles of organization of the networks.
3.2.4. Assessment and Comparison of Scenarios
The assessment and comparison of scenarios shall then rest principally on global analysis and shall call upon the modelling step finalized during the first phase of the study.
These global analysis shall be completed, as the need arises, by analysis by sector, which should be placed within the global framework of the public transport plan.
The comparison of these scenarios, multi-criteria analysis, shall call upon technical, socio-economic and financial criteria dealing mainly with:
- Supply proposed to users and the community.
- Traffic by travel modes.
- Investment and operation costs.
- Impact on the environment[3] and quality of life.