Commission Meeting Materials December 20, 2016 9:00 a.m. - Existing and Projected Shortages in High-Demand, High-Wage Occupations Annual Report
LMCI
12-13-2016
I. Executive Summary
Texas Labor Code Section 302.019 requires the Texas Workforce Commission (TWC) to gather and study information relating to existing and projected shortages in high-wage, high-demand occupations in Texas annually, including for selected industries.
This report summarizes those findings by industry in Texas. The additional data used in this report is current as of the end of federal fiscal year 2016. Thus, the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data covers the period through first quarter 2016. The Current Employment Statistics (CES) data covers the period through the August 2016 estimates. Help Wanted Online (HWOL) data has been incorporated covering third quarter 2016.
Texas recovered robustly after the national recession of 2008-2009, taking only 39 months while the nation took 76. As of August 2016 Texas has experienced 76 consecutive months of annualized employment growth. The state has expanded employment 13.3 percent beyond its pre-recession peak, whereas national employment has expanded by 4.5 percent.
Texas remains driven by a continued economic shift towards high-skilled jobs in the Business and Professional Services sector, while the state’s rapid population growth and aging baby-boomer population increases demand for service sector jobs, primarily Leisure and Hospitality and Education and Health Services. These three industries in addition to Trade, Transportation, and Utilities account for over 55 percent of the jobs in Texas.
The occupations showing the highest current demand according to the HWOL data are typical of the Wholesale Trade, Accommodation and Food Services, and Construction industries. These industries also currently show the highest employment growth rates.
For this report, TWC staff measured industry employment levels over the most recent available five-year period (third quarter of 2010 to third quarter of 2015) using employment levels reported by Texas employers under TWC’s QCEW program. This report provides industry-level employment data along with HWOL data to provide comparison and context.
This report also contains TWC’s most current short- and long-term projections for employment growth in Texas. Short-term projections were released in February 2016 with a base year of 2015 covering the period of 2015 to 2017. Long-term projections were released in September 2016 with a base year of 2014 covering the period of 2014 to 2024. As a result, this report uses current employment statistics programs such as QCEW, CES and HWOL to better understand the current economic situation. The next short-term employment projections, covering the period of 2017 to 2019, will be released in the Spring 2017.
Due to shifts in the economy, required education and job training for the occupations in this report ranges from professional occupations requiring a college degree, to skilled trades in construction or manufacturing that require specific technical skills training. Some jobs in this report require no post-secondary education. However, higher-paying occupations tend to require:
a) a bachelor’s degree and specific technical skill training, or
b) some form of post-secondary education, specific technical skill training, and additional on-the-job training.
Since no official definition of a high wage occupation exists, TWC focused in this report on growing occupations that pay more than the Texas median wage of $34,550 per year.
TWC follows statistical data standards set by the agency’s contracts with the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Employment and Training Administration division of the U.S. Department of Labor. In preparing the projections, TWC examined more than 800 occupations, segmenting them for specific industries. Those growth occupations are listed by industry sector in Section II.
II. Growth Occupations in Growth Industries
Positive growth continues to drive demand for workers in the United States, particularly in Texas and its surrounding states. In some key occupations, local supply has at times struggled to keep up with demand.
This report focuses on the most in-demand occupations in Texas from 2014 through 2024 (long-term) and 2015 through 2017 (short-term). It is important to remember that even similar job titles will require unique combinations of technical skills, education, work experience, and soft skills based on each employer’s unique needs.
This section identifies occupations within major industries as defined in Chapter 302. The charts display staffing and wage information for a specific occupation in that specific industry. Occupations are then ranked by the projected employment change in Texas from 2014 to 2024. Listed industry employment data corresponds with that industry’s North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) code.
A. Construction
The construction industry is projected to grow by 27.8 percent from 2014 to 2024, creating the need for 177,390 workers over the course of 10 years. Occupational projections also indicate that in the short and long terms, the highest demand will be for specialty trade workers to fill positions such as Electricians, Plumbers, and Carpenters.
In the first quarter 2016, employment with Construction companies reached 682,677 workers. Help Wanted Online construction data shows strong growth for the industry given third quarter 2016 job postings are up 5.6 percent from last year.
Demand for construction workers continues to rise. Texas second quarter 2016 home sales rose significantly, while housing inventory remains limited at 3.7 months, driving home prices up 7.5 percent from last year. These trends indicate strong demand for residential, commercial and industrial building projects.
Construction occupations projected to add the most jobs in the long and short term are listed below.
Long Term /Occupational Title / Annual Average Employment 2014 / Annual Average Employment 2024 / Number Change 2014-2024 / Percent Growth 2014-2024 / Average
Annual Wage 2015 /
Electricians / 39,740 / 53,490 / 13,750 / 34.6% / $44,102 /
Supervisors of Construction Trades and Extraction Workers / 43,440 / 55,330 / 11,890 / 27.4% / $63,419 /
Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters / 27,290 / 35,160 / 7,870 / 28.8% / $45,462 /
Carpenters / 27,930 / 34,970 / 7,040 / 25.2% / $36,386 /
Operating Engineers and Other Construction Equipment Operators / 23,650 / 29,650 / 6,000 / 25.4% / $40,173 /
Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers / 14,680 / 19,910 / 5,230 / 35.6% / $41,932 /
Office Clerks, General / 24,000 / 29,200 / 5,200 / 21.7% / $35,946 /
General and Operations Managers / 17,280 / 22,160 / 4,880 / 28.2% / $117,172 /
Construction Managers / 21,080 / 25,160 / 4,080 / 19.4% / $90,378 /
Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers / 13,450 / 16,460 / 3,010 / 22.4% / $53,933 /
Short Term /
Occupational Title / Annual Average Employment 2015 / Annual Average Employment 2017 / Number Change 2015-2017 / Percent Growth 2015-2017 / Average
Annual Wage 2015 /
Supervisors of Construction Trades & Extraction Workers / 44,550 / 49,780 / 5,230 / 11.7% / $63,419 /
Electricians / 39,900 / 44,520 / 4,620 / 11.6% / $44,102 /
Plumbers, Pipefitters, & Steamfitters / 30,020 / 33,400 / 3,380 / 11.3% / $45,462 /
Carpenters / 29,740 / 33,070 / 3,330 / 11.2% / $36,386 /
Operating Engineers & Other Construction Equipment Operators / 24,430 / 27,240 / 2,810 / 11.5% / $40,173 /
Construction Managers / 26,150 / 28,940 / 2,790 / 10.7% / $90,378 /
Office Clerks, General / 22,800 / 25,120 / 2,320 / 10.2% / $35,946 /
General & Operations Managers / 19,680 / 21,910 / 2,230 / 11.3% / $117,172 /
Heating, Air Conditioning, & Refrigeration Mechanics & Installers / 15,680 / 17,480 / 1,800 / 11.5% / $41,932 /
Welders, Cutters, Solderers, & Brazers / 11,580 / 12,890 / 1,310 / 11.3% / $53,933 /
B. Manufacturing
Texas produces more than 11 percent of total manufactured goods in the United States[1]. It also exports more goods by dollar value to Mexico and Canada than it does to any other country. Despite a strong dollar, which typically reduces demand for exports, the Dallas Fed’s manufacturing production index posted a third consecutive positive reading in September[2], suggesting manufacturing output continues to expand in Texas.
The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program has shown manufacturing employment is up 30,808 jobs since first quarter 2011. Nondurable goods employment is up over the year, yet an increase in automation has led to a slowing in demand for durable goods manufacturing employment. The increase in automation and productivity has driven up manufacturing wages for 83 consecutive months according to the Dallas Fed’s monthly Manufacturing Outlook survey[3], possibly due to an increase in demand for higher-skilled employees.
Manufacturing industry employment is expected to increase by 7.2 percent by 2024. This increase spans a broad range of skill sets including Industrial Machinery Mechanics; Computer Controlled Machine Tool Operators; and Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers, among others.
The occupations within Manufacturing expected to increase in the near and long term are listed below.
Long Term /Occupational Title / Annual Average Employment 2014 / Annual Average Employment 2024 / Number Change 2014-2024 / Percent Growth 2014-2024 / Average
Annual Wage 2015 /
Industrial Machinery Mechanics / 10,990 / 14,090 / 3,100 / 28.2% / $53,735 /
Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers / 32,130 / 34,910 / 2,780 / 8.7% / $65,899 /
Computer-Controlled Machine Tool Operators, Metal and Plastic / 12,180 / 14,580 / 2,400 / 19.7% / $38,654 /
Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers / 25,550 / 27,730 / 2,180 / 8.5% / $38,816 /
Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers / 12,890 / 15,000 / 2,110 / 16.4% / $37,806 /
Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products / 20,250 / 22,070 / 1,820 / 9.0% / $67,189 /
Chemical Equipment Operators and Tenders / 11,420 / 13,220 / 1,800 / 15.8% / $62,004 /
Maintenance Workers, Machinery / 7,110 / 8,660 / 1,550 / 21.8% / $45,173 /
General and Operations Managers / 16,750 / 17,990 / 1,240 / 7.4% / $134,993 /
Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and Weighers / 25,340 / 26,560 / 1,220 / 4.8% / $40,643 /
Short Term /
Occupational Title / Annual Average Employment 2015 / Annual Average Employment 2017 / Number Change 2015-2017 / Percent Growth 2015-2017 / Average
Annual Wage 2015 /
Industrial Machinery Mechanics / 11,940 / 12,330 / 390 / 3.3% / $53,735 /
Heavy & Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers / 12,270 / 12,600 / 330 / 2.7% / $37,806 /
Chemical Equipment Operators & Tenders / 9,790 / 10,050 / 260 / 2.7% / $62,004 /
Chemical Plant & System Operators / 5,800 / 5,960 / 160 / 2.8% / $68,482 /
Separating, Filtering, Clarifying, Precipitating, & Still Machine Setters, Operators, & Tenders / 2,940 / 3,070 / 130 / 4.4% / $48,305 /
Maintenance Workers, Machinery / 6,640 / 6,730 / 90 / 1.4% / $45,173 /
Chemical Engineers / 3,360 / 3,430 / 70 / 2.1% / $116,733 /
Dental Laboratory Technicians / 1,700 / 1,770 / 70 / 4.1% / $40,361 /
Chemists / 2,060 / 2,110 / 50 / 2.4% / $78,094 /
Chemical Technicians / 2,650 / 2,690 / 40 / 1.5% / $58,702 /
C. Agriculture and Forestry
Though Texas’ Agriculture and Forestry industry is one of the smallest in terms of employment, it leads the nation in many ways. The industry produces the most cattle, cotton, hay, sheep, goats and mohair of any state in the nation.[4] Texas also has the most farms and ranches in the country: 248,800 covering 130.2 million acres.[5]
In Texas and across the nation, this industry has been using fewer and fewer workers in recent decades as farming methods have become more efficient. Farms now tend to be fewer in number, larger and more expensive to operate, but also much more productive.
From the first quarter of 2011 to the first quarter of 2016 the Agriculture and Forestry industry in Texas grew by 1.0 percent, adding 574 jobs. The industry is projected to add nearly 6,700 jobs by 2024, growing to 64,850 jobs total.
Agriculture and Forestry job postings decreased approximately 15 percent when comparing the third quarter of 2015 to the same quarter in 2016. However, it is worth noting that Texas’ Agriculture and Forestry employers post openings online less often compared to employers in other industries.
Agriculture and Forestry industry jobs projected to add the most positions over the long (2014-2024) and short (2015-2017) terms are listed below.
Long Term /Occupational Title / Annual Average Employment 2014 / Annual Average Employment 2024 / Number Change 2014-2024 / Percent Growth 2014-2024 / Average
Annual Wage 2015 /
Farmers, Ranchers, and Other Agricultural Managers / 5,300 / 5,640 / 340 / 6.4% / $74,378 /
Logging Equipment Operators / 640 / 770 / 130 / 20.3% / $38,588 /
Supervisors of Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Workers / 2,200 / 2,270 / 70 / 3.2% / $50,065 /
Food Scientists and Technologists / 190 / 220 / 30 / 15.8% / $57,968 /
Production, Planning, and Expediting Clerks / 130 / 150 / 20 / 15.4% / $49,532 /
Commercial Pilots / 120 / 140 / 20 / 16.7% / $66,176 /
Maintenance Workers, Machinery / 60 / 70 / 10 / 16.7% / $36,421 /
Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers / 70 / 80 / 10 / 14.3% / $40,911 /
Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks / 430 / 430 / 0 / 0.0% / $36,018 /
Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers / 70 / 70 / 0 / 0.0% / $59,324 /
Short Term /
Occupational Title / Annual Average Employment 2015 / Annual Average Employment 2017 / Number Change 2015-2017 / Percent Growth 2015-2017 / Average
Annual Wage 2015 /
Supervisors of Mechanics, Installers, & Repairers / 50 / 50 / 0 / 0.0% / $65,979 /
Supervisors of Transportation & Material-Moving Machine & Vehicle Operators / 20 / 20 / 0 / 0.0% / $37,751 /
Maintenance Workers, Machinery / 60 / 50 / -10 / -16.7% / $36,421 /
Supervisors of Production & Operating Workers / 80 / 70 / -10 / -12.5% / $40,911 /
Logging Equipment Operators / 710 / 680 / -30 / -4.2% / $38,588 /
*Due to limited coverage in this industry, many agricultural workers are self-employed and are not covered by Unemployment Insurance and therefore are not sampled by the Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) program.