Outline report for Brent’s Pupil Projections and Place Planning

for 11-16 year olds

This report sets out existing number of 11-16 year olds and places within Brent’s mainstream secondary schools, and provides:

  • projections on how this number will increase by 2016, and
  • how Brent proposes to meet this increased demand for places within its mainstream secondary schools and through new schools (academies)

Existing number of 11-16 year olds and places within Brent secondary schools

Table 1 shows the existing number of children on the roll of Brent’s secondary schools, together with current number of places. However:

  • a significant proportion of Brent’s resident 11-16 year olds attend schools in neighbouring authorities (3813 in 2006)
  • a significant proportion of 11-16 year old pupils in Brent’s schools are resident in neighbouring authorities (currently about 21.4%)

Changes in size of year cohorts within secondary schools

It would appear that the year 7 cohort increases by about 80 as it moves up the secondary school due to in year admissions, although there also appears to be a drop in year 11 – reason for this is unknown.

Increase in the 11-16 year old population within Brent

There are two reasons for an expected increase in the 11-16 year old resident population within Brent – from new housing and from an increase in the birth rate.

New Housing

There is a number of small, medium and large scale housing schemes in Brent over the next 10 years. Table 2 sets these out according to planning areas, types of housing unit and expected time of completion. This table also sets out the child yield ratio used in relation to the different types of housing units within these schemes.

In the following table, though, is set outestimates for new housing and child yield between 2007- 2016

Year / 2006-08 / 2008-10 / 2010-12 / 2012-14 / 2014-16 / Total
Child yield / Total yield
11-16
Original housing estimates / 3031 / 2321 / 2477 / 1041 / 1103 / X / X
Original child yield 0-16 calculations* / 1051 / 816 / 859 / 361 / 442 / 3529 / 1100 approx
Revised child yield 0-16 calculations / 1441 / 1137 / 1198 / 503 / 615 / 4894 / 1500 approx

* 25% reduction is made, due to lack of certainty about planning permission and types of housing

Assumptions re housing are:

50/50% private/social

Private: 40% 2 bed, 20% 3 bed

Social: 45% 2 bed, 30% 3 bed, 5% 4 bed

The multiplying factors for child yield are derived from the DMAG Briefing 2005/25 – Wandsworth Private multiplier for the private calculations and the DMAG Update 2006/11 – Wandsworth Social for the social calculations:

Private: 0.11 for 2 bed and 0.42 for 3 bed

Social: 0.40 for 2 bed; 1.88 for 3 bed; 1.90 for 4 bed

This shows that by 2016 there is projected to be a minimum increase of about 1100 in the resident 11-16 year old population, due to housing being built between now and 2016.This estimate is based on a reduction by 25% of the child yield generated using the ‘Wandsworth model’ – this is because not all the housing has final planning approval, and therefore the proportion of different types of housing and when they will be built and occupied is not certain. Not applying this 25% reduction would generate a total estimated increase in the 11-16 population of 1500.

Hence it will be important that the housing developments and child yield data are reviewed in 18/24 months, as more information becomes available on types of housing units being built (eg proportion of affordable/social to private housing), the size of the units (eg how many are three bedroomed) and more definitive dates of build completion. The number and type of housing units due to be completed/become available between 2016 and 2018 should also have become clearer in 18/24 months time, so that the number of additional 11-16 places needed by 2018 can be better estimated.

However, not all these additional 11-16 year olds will take up places in Brent schools, as some will choose schools in other boroughs, especially CE schools (as none exist in Brent), and a few will need special school placements or choose the independent sector. It is suggested that the secondary child yield is reduced by 5% to reflect this, given that currently the percentage of year 7 compared to year 6 pupils in Brent schools is about 94% on average.

This would give the need for about an additional 7FE 11-16 places, as a minimum, by 2016.

Increased birth rate

Brent has experienced an increase in the birth rate over the last 10 years, as shown in Table 3. This table also shows the actual and estimated Year R, Year 6 and Year 7 cohorts, reflecting increased birth rate.The following percentages have been used to make estimates for year R, year 6 and year 7:

-an average percentage of 75% has been used for estimating the number of children in Year R, as compared to live birth data

-an average percentage of 74% for year 6, ascompared to live birth data

-an average percentage of 98% for year 6, as compared to year R data

-an average percentage of 94% for year 7, as compared to year 6 data

-an average percentage of 92% for year 7, as compared to year R data

-an average percentage of 69% for year 7, as compared to live birth data

This has given a range of potential year 6 and year 7 sizes.

Changes in cross border movement of pupils

In 2006 10,553 Brent 11-16 year olds attended Brent schools.

In predicting changes in cross border movement of pupils, the following assumptions have been made:

  • parental choice of aided schools, single-sex schools or selective schools is unlikely to change significantly, especially where there is no planned change to this provision, excepting where children have been placed in these schools because there are no places available elsewhere
  • parental choice of schools that are performing well/highly popular/oversubscribed is unlikely to change
  • proposed provision of new schools/places will reduce loss of Brent children to similar schools in neighbouring boroughs, where the increased placesmean that Brent 11-16 year olds will be able to get a place in a Brent school and not have to go out borough to obtain a school place near where they live, and where it is expected that parents will choose a place in a similar Brent school that is nearest to them/has the easiest transport route.

Exports

Barnet - 867 Brent 11-16 year olds attended Barnet schools in 2006, and this number is expected to stay aboutthe same

Camden– the number of Brent 11-16 year olds attending Camden schools (486 in 2006) is expected to stay about the same. This is also Camden’s understanding and their plans include places for this to continue.

Ealing - in 2006 403 Brent 11-16 year olds were inEaling schools – expectation is that the number attending Cardinal Wiseman (108), Twyford (129), Ellen Wilkinson(67) will stay at a similar level, but that the numbers attending Brentside(23) andActon High (33) will decrease significantly, given Brent’s plans ie a reduction in loss of 56. This is Ealing’s expectations also.

Hammersmith and Fulham – the number of Brent 11-16 year olds attending H&F schools (243 in 2006) is expected to stay about the same

Harrow – the numberof Brent 11-16 year olds attending Harrow schools (664 in 2006) is expected to reduce by about 50, given that number of these are currently placed in Harrow first/middle schools due to lack of places in nearby Brent schools, and they then stay on with their peers to the secondary system in Harrow – with improved provision/places in Brent those who had to go out to Harrow for a school place should obtain places in the Brent primary system and so continue on into Brent secondary schools

Hillingdon– the number of Brent 11-16 year olds attending schools in Hillingdon (mainly RC/CE) -80 in 2006 - are expected to stay about the same

Kensington and Chelsea – the number of Brent 11-16 year olds attending K&C schools (181 in 2006) is expected to stay about the same

Westminster–471 Brent 11-16 year olds attendWestminster schoolsand this number is expectedto stay about the same (Westminsteris in BSF wave 3 and their place planning is based on the number of Brent children in their schools staying about the same)

Imports

Ealing - 224 Ealing 11-16 year olds attendedBrent schools in 2006 – but with the proposed new secondary school in the north ofEaling the expectation is for areductionof about 90in the numberof Ealing 11-16 year oldsattending Brent schools

Barnet - 867 Barnet 11-16 year olds attended Brent schools in 2006 (647 of these attended JFS school) and this number is expected to stay about the same

Westminster - 272Westminster 11-16 year olds attended Brent schools in 2006– the number is expected to stay about the same. Westminster has planned on this basis.

Harrow- 875 Harrow 11-16 year olds attended Brent schools in 2006– this number is expected to stay the same (parents opting for a primary/secondary system rather than a first/middle school system)

Because of all the above, it is anticipated that there will be some changes in exports and imports of 11-16 year olds, as set out above, but net effect for Brent of these changes is minimal in terms of pupil place planning.

Overall increase in pupil place requirements

The overall increase in number of places required by 2016 is therefore made up of:

  • increases coming through the primary feeder schools due to increased birth rate, giving an additional 315/34011 year olds by 2016/17, that is a total of 3050/3075 11 year olds, and thus the need for about 102/103FE (not allowing for any surplus places).
  • increases in 11-16 year old population of a minimum of 1050 ie 7FE 11-16 year olds requiring places in Brent schools, as a result of new housing being built between now and 2016

This suggests a need for a minimum of 109/110 FE places by 2016/17.

Meeting the demand for secondary places

In order to meet the demand for more secondary places, Brent proposes, as shown in Table 4, to:

  • create one or two new secondary schools, each for 6FE
  • expand places at existing schools
  • reduce the size of Cardinal Hinsley school by 1 FE to give a 4FE school

Table 5 sets out for each mainstream secondary school (including the proposed new school(s)), the numbers expected in each of years 7-11 in 2016, taking into account all of the above factors, as compared with proposed and existing places and admission numbers for each school.

Conclusion

Given that there is a need for a minimum of 109/110 FE 11-16 places ( 12.5/13.5 FE increase) by 2016, it would seem best, in the immediate term, to:

-plan for expanding places at existing schools to give 109 FE ( an expansion of 12.5 FE), as suggested in the column headed ‘With a third academy’ in Table 4

-defer further consideration of the third academy until there is more definitive data on new housing planned up to 2018 (ie proportion of affordable/social/private housing, types of units and dates that will be completed and available).

The updating of housing data and child yield in 18/24 months time would leave sufficient time for considering the need for the development of a third academy, as well as firming up expansion plans for existing schools through the BSF programme.

Consideration of expansion of other schools, as suggested in the column headed‘Without a third academy’ would therefore be best deferred until the child yield data form new housing up until 2016/2018 is firmed up over the next 18/24 months. If this shows the need for more 11-16 year old places, a decision can then be taken about whether to add places to existing schools or to go for a third academy. This would also fit in with the timeframe for the BSF programme.

TABLE 1 Existing admission numbers, 11-16 places and NOR

School / Admission Number / 11-16 places / NOR 2006/7
Alperton Community / 217 / 1085 / 1092
Capital city Academy / 196 / 980 / 896
Cardinal Hinsley RC (boys) / 150 / 750 / 421
Claremont High / 224 / 1112 / 1109
Convent RC (girls) / 180 / 900 / 887
Copland Community / 240 / 1200 / 1207
JFS (Jewish) / 300 / 1500 / 1436
John Kelly Boys / 117 / 585 / 590
John Kelly Girls / 155 / 775 / 766
Kingsbury High / 315 / 1545 / 1570
Preston Manor High / 216 / 1080 / 1108
QueensPark Community / 200 / 1000 / 1024
St Gregory’s RC High / 176 / 880 / 863
Wembley High / 210 / 1050 / 1024
Total / 2896 / 14442 / 13993

TABLE 2 – 11-16 child yield by 2017 by planning area – this is attached as an excel spreadsheet

TABLE 3 (estimates based on birth rates only, and not any increases that might be caused by housing growth)

Year of birth / Nos of births / Year R / Nos in Year R (actual for Jan or estimated) / Year 6 / Nos in Year 6
(actual for Jan or estimated) / Year 7 / Nos in Year 7
(actual for Jan or estimated)
92/3 / 4094 / 97/98 / 3049 / 03/04 / 2887 / 04/05 / 2736
93/4 / 4030 / 98/99 / 3040 / 04/05 / 2976 / 05/06 / 2802
94/5 / 3961 / 99/00 / 3001 / 05/06 / 3015 / 06/07 / 2817
95/6 / 3895 / 00/01 / 2969 / 06/07 / 2943 / 07/08 / 2690/2765
96/7 / 4066 / 01/02 / 2999 / 07/08 / 2940/3010 / 08/09 / 2760/2830
97/8 / 3950 / 02/03 / 3005 / 08/09 / 2920/2945 / 09/10 / 2725/2770
98/9 / 3864 / 03/04 / 2862 / 09/10 / 2805/2860 / 10/11 / 2635/2740
99/00 / 4076 / 04/05 / 3034 / 10/11 / 2875/3015 / 11/12 / 2700/2835
00/01 / 3946 / 05/06 / 2954 / 11/12 / 2895/2920 / 12/13 / 2720/2745
01/02 / 3967 / 06/07 / 3027 / 12/13 / 2935/2965 / 13/14 / 2740/2790
02/03 / 4326 / 07/08 / 3245 / 13/14 / 3180/3200 / 14/15 / 2990/3010
03/04 / 4355 / 08/09 / 3266 / 14/15 / 3200/3220 / 15/16 / 3010/3025
04/05 / 4417 / 09/10 / 3313 / 15/16 / 3245/3270 / 16/17 / 3050/3075

TABLE 4 - proposals for school organisation in 2016/17

School / Current Admission Number / Proposed admission number (FE) / Additional places in Year 7 / Proposed admission number (FE / Additional places in Year 7
Without a third academy / With a third academy
Alperton Community / 217 / 240 (8FE) / 23 / 240 (8FE) / 23
CapitalCityAcademy / 196 / 270 (9FE) / 74 / 210 (7FE) / 14
Cardinal Hinsley RC (boys) / 150 / 120 (4FE) / -30 / 120 (4FE) / -30
Claremont High / 224 / 240 (8 FE) / 16 / 240 (8FE) / 16
Convent RC (girls) / 180 / 180 (6FE) / 0 / 180(6FE) / 0
Copland Community / 240 / 270 (9FE) / 30 / 270 (9FE) / 30
JFS (Jewish) / 300 / 300 (10FE) / 0 / 300 (10FE) / 0
John Kelly Boys / 117 / 150 (5FE) / 33 / 150 (5FE) / 33
John Kelly Girls / 155 / 180 (6FE) / 25 / 180 (6FE) / 25
Kingsbury High / 315 / 330 (11FE) / 15 / 330 (11FE) / 15
Preston Manor High / 216 / 270 (9FE) / 54 / 240 (8FE) / 24
QueensPark Community / 200 / 270 (9FE) / 70 / 210 (7FE) / 10
St Gregory’s RC High / 176 / 180 (6FE) / 4 / 180 (6FE) / 4
Wembley High / 210 / 240 (8 FE) / 30 / 240 (8FE) / 30
SecondAcademy / 0 / 180 (6FE) / 180 / 180 (6FE) / 180
ThirdAcademy / 0 / 0 / 0 / 180 (6FE) / 180
Total / 2896
(96.5 FE) / 3420
(114 FE) / 494
(16.5 FE) / 3450
(115 FE) / 554
(18.5 FE)