Zheger Hassan
The Origins and Evolution of De Facto States: Implications for Iraqi Kurdistan"
My thesis examines how domestic political institutions and economic incentives influence the decision-making of ‘de facto’ states with a particular focus on Iraqi Kurdistan. A de facto state is an entity that controls a defined territory, provides an array of services to the population, and enters into diplomatic and economic relations with other states, but it does not possess de jure recognition. The main contribution of my thesis is to outline the ways in which de facto states emerge, how they function in the international system, and to identity the factors that account for their behaviour. The following questions guide the project: First, why and how do de facto states emerge? Second, why do some de facto states pursue independence while others do not? And finally, what are the implications for Iraqi Kurdistan?
Focusing on Iraqi Kurdistan is particularly important given the uncertain realities in Iraq and the emergence of the Islamic State (IS also known as ISIS and ISIL and by the Arabic acronym Daesh). Understanding the motivations of Iraqi Kurdistan will provide researchers and policymakers with information that will increase our understanding of the issues between the Kurds and Iraq. This case is a particularly important test case for the de facto state literature given the historical and political contexts. Iraqi Kurdistan suffered decades of political and social oppression at the hands of successive regimes in Baghdad and yet it has not seceded from Iraq. This dissertation attempts to explain this behaviour. The thesis argues that Iraqi Kurdistan will continue to function in a united Iraq under certain conditions. Iraq’s post-2005 constitution furnishes the Kurds with sufficient autonomy, significant economic incentives, and the removal of the old regime. These conditions will persuade the Kurds to forgo independence.
The thesis also makes an empirical contribution to the case of Iraqi Kurdistan. The thesis relies on the analysis of data gathered from three fieldwork trips from May 2013 to April 2014. The first extended field trip was a two-month tour of Iraqi Kurdistan, mainly Erbil and Duhok province, which included interviews with high-ranking politicians, political party officials, academics, members of NGOs, and journalists. In total, I conducted semi-structured interviews with over 30 officials from Iraqi Kurdistan. The second field trip was a two-week visit to Iraqi Kurdistan in the lead up to the Kurdistan regional elections held in September 2013. During this trip, I was able to observe the campaigning strategies of the political parties and I participated in the election as an international observer for the Independent High Electoral Commission of Iraq. The final field trip allowed me to observe the Iraq general election of April 2014. During a ten day stay, I was given an inside look into the campaigning of a candidate for the most popular Kurdish political party, the Kurdistan Democratic Party.