D1
spotlights/website and communication procedures
and drafts versions for all deliverables
(Workpackage WP0)
28 February 2000
The spotlightsTN project / Contract 1999-TN.10941
Mcrit sl, co-ordinator / MKmetric / NEA
Project financed by the 5th European Framework Research Programme
Synthesis 6
0 Background 8
0.1 What’s spotlightsTN? 8
0.2 spotlightsTN Preparatory Phase 9
0.3 Work Package 0: Infrastructure support and prototypes 10
1 spotlights/website 14
2 100 Q&A / Glossary of terms and concepts 17
2 Dcod DRAFT version 31
3 Mdir DRAFT version 33
4 GTF DRAFT version 39
5 LTVisions: On-line and friendly access to advanced models? 50
5.1 Solving the interactivity gap: Getting access to remote models 54
5.2 Solving the user-friendliness gap: Getting intelligent access to model 55
5.3 Provisory conclusions 57
ANNEX 1: 100 Q&A 58
Compendium of Literature 110
ANNEX 2: Bridges/GTF (MKmetric) 152
Synthesis
The purpose of this report is to present a spotlighst/website as well as a draft version for all deliverables, to be considered as starting point and key reference during the research.
spotlights/website is only brefly presented since it can be visited at http://www.mcrit.com (first version was released the 15th of February 2000 and it will be continously updated and expanded as the project requires more functionalities).
The project then contains first some fundamental questions related transport modelling are listed. The interest of them is making explicit a number of issues directly related to the modelling activity to be included within spotlights/Q&A. This list of questions has been edited from documents developed by different experts and research institutions.
Second, a precise proposal of spotlights/Dcode is included, based on the starting ideas presented in the kick-off meeting as well as on the work developed afterwordds by the Scientific Commitee.
Third, a precise proposal for spotlights/Mdir, Directory of Models, is presented. The proposal of fields describing models has been validated with a number of transport models developed at European and local and regional scales, covering from classic 4-Step models to Dynamic Systems, from statistically-based models to Executive Support Systems, from models purely focused on transport to models including links to other sectors. Many feed-backs with NEA, and exchange of relevant information, helped to get this actual Mdir version, which is an ACCESS database to be included within spotlightsTN as interactive directory.
Four, a definition of spotlights/GTF, based on the Bridges works made by MKmetric and DTU is included.
Five, an Internet systhematic search of relevant cases to “interface” advanced models has provided interesting cases, complementary to those already developed by spotlightsTN partners in other researches (e.g. ASSEMBLING Internet-interactive Know_tools), common projects (e.g. Phare Toolbox CDRom) and independent projects (e.g. PACE-FORWARD).
The next section provides the background information of this deliverable, based on spolitghtsTN Technical Annexes.
0 Background
0.1 What’s spotlightsTN?
spotlightsTN is a scientific forum for European transport modellers to explore ways for making advanced transport models fully transparent to end-users, open and more integrated into policy-making. spotlightsTN activities are devoted to organise and support four different discussion lines, each one aiming to produce as a conclusion a new specific mechanism (procedure, tool) helping to make advanced transport models more accessible to decision-makers, so they can make an effective use. Outputs from closely related AM and TN (e.g. ATOM’AM, INTERACT, THINK-UP’TM and TRANSTALK’TN, among others) will be included into the actitivies. spotlightsTN, all considered, is about inducing transport modellers a greater sensitivity towards the growing interest and the new opportunities ahead “to bring their advanced models to light”.
0.2 spotlightsTN Preparatory Phase
D1 deliverable belongs to the so-called “PREPARATORY PHASE” aiming to begin with the end in mind (a clear vision of the final deliverables to be achieved). This phase includes the following stages:
ü Discussion of the overall organisation of the work in the kick-off meeting (0th month)
ü Development of draft versions for Dcod, Mdir, GTF and LT by the co-ordinator (1th month)
ü First contributions by main partners to be discussed in the first internal working meeting (2on month)
ü Validation by the spotlightsTN Scientific Commitee of all key tools (3th month)
ü Inclusion of key tools into spotlightsTN for free downloading (4th month)
The prepatatory phase includes two deliverables:
DELIVERABLES / m / Partner responsibleD1 / SW / Website and communication procedures / P / 1 / Mcrit
D2 / RE+SW / Draft versions for all deliverables / P / 3 / All-Mcrit
SW means “mostly a software deliverable”, and RE “mostly a report”.
0.3 Work Package 0: Infrastructure support and prototypes
Most works of the preparatory phase were included in the WP0: Infrastructure support and prototypes
WP0 / TN infrastructure support and prototypes / Mcrit0.0 General administration / Mcrit
0.1 Web development / Mcrit
0.2 Web maintenance / Mcrit
0.3 Directory of TN members, experts and modellers / Mcrit/NEA / Support
0.4 Draft versions for all deliverables / Mcrit
0.5 Validation of draft versions by the Scientific Commitee / Scien.Com / Lead
Objectives
The objective of the WP is developping the administrative, management and logistic basis to launch and sustain a two-years long networking work.
Works
0.0 General administration will be centralised by the co-ordinator. This include relations with EC/DG7, the organisation of internal meetings, preparation of the interception report (1th milestone, 3th month) the permanent logistic support to partners and the production of the Final Report.
0.1 The website will be developed by Mcrit during the firsts weeks as a internal communication tool and reference point for external dissemination
0.2 The website will be mantained by Mcrit during the two-years of the research. Updated materials from discussions will be linked for free downloading; as a communication channel, it will remain permanently open (WP1).
0.3 A first directory of modellers (potential participants on the TN, experts or members) will be harmonised by Mcrit from information provided by main partners and the Scientitic Commitee, as well as the one available at DG7. This directory will be considered a pre-draft version for Mdir.
0.4 In the first month a first dratf version of key spotlightsTN tools will be produced by Mcrit, in co-operation with main partners, which will improve them during the second month. It is assumed that the early simoultanenous visualisation of all deliverables will help main partners and Scientific Commitee members to focuse the later validation and improvement works on most fundamental aspects. They will be based as much as possible in already available outputs from the 4th and 5th European research programme (e.g. Mdir from EC/DGVII own directories of participants in the 4th and 5th programmes, GTF from Bridges, LT from ASSEMBLING...).
0.5 First validated versions of deliverables will result from the Scientific Commitee work during the third month and will be plugged to the website to disseminate spotlightsTN activities across the modelling community, as soon as possible and get a clear starting point for all discussions lines, as well as for ATOM co-operation.
Outputs
ü Website and directory of members and participants (D1, Mcrit, 1th)
ü Validated prototypes for main four deliverables (D2, All-Mcrit, 3th)
1 spotlights/website
The website will be developed by Mcrit during the firsts weeks as a internal communication tool and reference point for external dissemination The website will be mantained by Mcrit during the two-years of the research. Updated materials from discussions will be linked for free downloading; as a communication channel, it will remain permanently open.
spotlighsTN was put on Internet the 15th of February 2000. The website was designed to provide a simple and clear information concerning the project as well as an structure to include communication feed-backs and support Thematic Network activities. It will be continously updated and extended as the project advances.
It basically consists on:
-A front page presenting the project goals and partnership, as well as the list of already existing documents
-A page for each deliverable to be developed
Next steps:
-Include draft versions of all deliverables as documents to be consulted and downloaded
-Include an interactive version or Mdir, where model’s descriptions and references will be queried on-line
-Include relevant hyperlinks to on-line models and other interesting experiences using advanced ICT tools on modelling
-Hyperlinks to related websites for Dcod and GTF (e.g. GDF format standard by ISO).
-Activate feed-back options
2 100 Q&A / Glossary of terms and concepts
An open channel for discussions by electronic mail will always be open during spotlightsTN life time. The main purpose of this channel is simply formalising and giving a formal structure to the expected large number of questions and answers between modellers not direcly linked to any specific spotlightsTN deliverable, but around all of them (e.g. data availability concerns, future modelling trends, comparative experiences in USA research programmes...).
Empiric evidence show that confusion regarding, for instance basic terminology (e.g. the meaning of “mathematic modelling tools”, “transport models”, “data models”, “data formats”, “interactivity”, “friendlyness”...) constrains or even blocks the efficient communication between modellers with different scientific backgrounds and software expertise. To help solving these and other “blocking” factors, Q&A can play a decisive role.
Open Q&A discussions will be a repository for more frequent “blocking questions”. Under inniciative of the Scientific Commitee, specific open discussions can be launched by sending a question to a number of modellers and summarising their answers. Open Q&A will mantain the communication door of spotlightsTN open to any modeller during periods without formal eConf or workshops (WS).
The first 100 Q&A that follow have been edited by Mcrit including Mcrit own research opinions together with many other directly taken from a large variety of sources, usually provided by members of spotlighstTN and other co-ordinated research projects, specially MAEP (co-ordinator of ATOM). It can be considered as a “glossary”.
More specifically, parts of the introductory sections were taken from a paper by Otto A. Nielsen for CODE-TEN research project (1999), as well as for MEAP paper on future trends of models developed as part of Bridges research (1999). As background, Ortuzar and Willumsen “Modelling Transport” (1990) was used, together with a number of more general texts, on Decision Support Systems and Expert Systems, such as the one by Warren Walker “Organisational Decisision Support Systems”.
Fundamental questions
1.0 Generally speaking, a “model” is just an “algorithm” wich predicts unknown data, often “forecasting” uncertain “futures”. A model is an intelligent simplification of reality. The paramount modelling goal to achieve the maximum simplicity representing reality with the minimum error. Science is about discovering the simple laws governing reality.
1.1 Compared with other scientific fields (e.g. natural sciences and physics), transport modelling and social sciences in general (those fields pretending to model human behaviour), are far from having convincing explanatory theories and predictive models, and it is reasonable to doubt that never they will because understanding and predicting human behaviour is for humans themselves an ontological impossibility. For instance, social and personal experimentation involves ethical aspects which are not present in natural sciences and physics. All taken, from many decision-makers point of view, transport models not only provide poor predictions: they use obscure formulations based on oversimplified assumptions and there is no much hope future research may significantly improve the situation.
1.2 Empirical evidence shows that transport model forecasts often turn out from the actual flows, even if good practice is followed (Nielsen mentions Skamris & Flyvberg, 1996). This fact is creating since early sixties doubts of the interest of using transport models for planning purposes. Critics say that transport models use to work with poor data, apply unnecessarily sophisticated and cryptic formulations in order to get wrong results.
1.3 But, however, transport models are being developed and applied to evaluate almost all important transport policies, at urban, regional and continental scales. Most of the members of the EU have, or are developing, either national or regional transport models. While structures vary, a majority of these take the form of a traditional four stage model based on aggregate data. In some cases these are only road models, and there are often separate freight models. However, the inclusion of more features is increasing with time of day choice, mode choice, elastic trip generation and the use of tours or trip chains becoming more common. A few models, notably the Dutch National Modelling System, use a different form of transport model, a disaggregate one, which uses information on individual people and households rather than averages for zones to predict travel behaviour: This type of model is becoming more widely used particularly in Scandinavia and Italy. At the more local level, microsimulation allows individual cars to be modelling travelling in a ‘real world’ traffic environment.
1.4 The analysis of human behaviour gained scientific attention during last decade (see Himanen et alt., 1998). Linear programming models, gravity models, spatial interaction and entropy models, discrete choice models, non-linear dynamics, genetic models, agent-based models and many more. Transportation research in particular has shown the genesis of a fascinating diversity of models (Himanen et alt., 1998). Despite all these variety of paradigms, it seems that there is no alternative to substitute the classic modelling paradigm (the so-called “four steps”) and all recent research developments use to be refinements, improvements, extensions and complements to this classic approach, or academic work not easily applicable on conventional decision-making processes, despite their value as knowledge effort.
1.5 Shortly speaking, models could be clusted on three major paradigms: statistically-based (then data becomes an indispensable starting point), theoretically-based (then the abstract formulation, e.g. based on scientific analogies is the starting point and data is used mostly to validate) or expert-based (e.g. rules of thumbs, heuristics... and then comparative cases and expert’s pannels are key modelling procedures). In social sciences, almost any model has a component belonging to each one of these paradigms.
1.6 All considered, accurate predictions and transparent meanigful explanations alone, are not the more important model requirements (or at least not the only ones) for using transport models in decision-making processes. If the model has to be used as planning assessment tool (as a decision-making tool) it has to provide for robust results, in the sense that each run with the same input data yields to the same final results, and marginal changes in input variables do not produce huge variation. This has crutial conceptual implications, since it requires models to be deterministic (even if they include internal schocastic mechanisms) and assumes the existance and unicity of an equilibrium point.