FSU guidance
Important countries: Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Georgia,Belarus
Russia:
-the main counterbalancing power for US on Eurasia
-enters 2008 in a good shape– geopolitically and economically (see annual);
-internal political consolidation – prez elections in March: Putin ensured his premiership and Dmitri Medvedev will most probably be the next president
-has huge natural resources, is the main energy supplier for Europe => watch for any energy supply disruption to Europe (need to watch supply agreements with Ukraine, Belarus)
-it also has the largest resources of metals in Eurasia => the main company we should keep an eye on is Norilsk Nickel (any news on it and any news on major changes concerning the mining activities in Russia)
-watch for developments on Russia-Serbia-Kosovo and possible discussions that Russia may have with EU on Kosovo
-watch for Russia-Belarus Union development
-watch for developments on Russia-Kazakhstan and Russia-Turkmenistan – energy resources and their (recent) links with China
-watch for news on Russia/China pipelines connections
Ukraine:
-was a “buffer state” for Russia until 2005 – then the Orange revolution changed that by allowing a pro-US politician become president
-main route for Russian gas to Europe
-political instability to continue; now the PM is the pro-US Yulia Tymoshenko but the coalition formed in the parliament is ‘weak’ – presidential elections are to be held in March 2008 and it is expected that the ‘orangers’ will fight over who gets the presidency chair do we expect Yulia to compete for this? If not her, does she have a favorite of her own party or she’s ok with Yush?
-Watch for Tymo’s actions towards the Russians, towards the energy sector (mostly controlled by the pro-Russians – Yannukovich)
-Watch for internal unrest, riots, political instability
Kazakhstan:
-has important energy resources (gas and oil)
-has the largest territory of the Central Asian states and borders Black Sea
-politics: internal power consolidation, few groups of interests, family dominated
-watch for meaningful signs of government instability and changes of economic, business environment profile
-watch for major energy developments
-watch for Russian vs. Chinese vs. US moves
Turkmenistan:
-the world’s fifth-largest natural gas supply, used to send nearly all of its natural gas exports to Russia but is also a potential source for Europe and South Asia
-borders Iran (South) – watch for Iran vs. Russia moves
-watch for government shifts towards other countries but Russia
-watch for pipelines’ projects
-watch for meaningful signs of government instability
Georgia:
-borders both the Caspian and the Black Sea; used to be a buffer state for Russia until Saakashvili came into power
-2 frozen conflicts: South Ossetia, Abkazia
-Watch for: political instability – early presidential elections on Jan. 5
-Watch for shifts - NATO vs. Russia: referendum on the country's proposed NATO membership Jan. 5
-Watch for any signs of renewed conflict between Georgia and the secessionist republics
Belarus:
-buffer state for Russia; watch for attitudes towards the West (US)
-route for energy supplies to Europe – watch for any signs of disruptions (relationship with Russia)
-watch for any sign of political instability
IB related issues in FSU:
-Eurasia metals and mining (Russia, Belarus) – major changes, nationalization, major shifts, mergers, acquisitions and security issues
-Energy – evolution of pipeline plans, moves against independent producers, changes in legislation, nationalizations
Others:
-militant threats against Eurasian countries
-security issues related to IB items
-LNG: Gazprom future plans
-Nuclear weapons – any foreign group monitoring/seriously discussing US efforts; new nuclear weapons discussions