STATE OF CALIFORNIA

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JACK SCOTT, CHANCELLOR

California Community Colleges
CHANCELLOR’S Office
1102 Q street
Sacramento, Ca 95811-6549
(916) 445-8752
http://www.cccco.edu /

Memorandum

February 4, 2010 FP 10-01

Via email only

To: Chief Business Officials

Facilities Planners

From: Frederick E. Harris, Assistant Vice Chancellor

College Finance and Facilities Planning

Subject: Long-Range Enrollment and Weekly Student Contact Hours Forecast, 2009

The intent of this memo is to provide you with the summary of our 2009 long-range forecast of fall enrollment and average annual weekly student contact hours (WSCH) for your district and to establish the deadline for appealing the long-range forecast provided. Apart from other uses, these forecasts should provide a basis for:

·  Development of project proposals for funding of future “capacity” facilities (lecture, lab, library, media, office, and related space), and the 2012-16 five-year construction plan. Facilities Planning Unit staff have entered the enrollment forecasts in FUSION and the data can be accessed via the Planning Forecast module at any time.

·  Review of “capacity” projects and five-year construction plans by the Facilities Planning Unit.

An econometric regression model is used to make the fall enrollment forecast for each district. Demographic values, the fourth independent variable in the model, are forecasted by the California Department of Finance (DOF) and represent the adult population of the county in which the district is located.

Continuing the methodology started in 2001, the future WSCH are derived by assuming that the ratio of annual average WSCH to fall enrollments will remain constant at the district’s last actual ratio (Fall 2008 – based upon DOF WSCH reports and our MIS enrollment reports). The use of the last actual WSCH ratio is consistent with the forecasting methodology used by the DOF.

This forecast incorporates the latest DOF county projections based upon the 2000 census. Prior forecasts used DOF county projections based upon the 1990 census.

If you intend to submit an appeal to the Chancellor’s Office for a re-evaluation of these projections, it must be filed no later than April 15, 2010. Provide a copy of the appeal to your facilities specialist.

If you have any questions or comments, contact Mei Cooc, Specialist, in Research and Planning at the Chancellor’s Office at (916) 327-5883.