Missile Impossible: Why the Agni Is a Joke

Missile impossible: Why the Agni-V falls short

Rakesh Krishnan Simha28April 2012

Now that the celebrations are over, it’s time for the hangover. Okay, let’s get this straight – India’s brand spanking new Agni-V is notan inter-continental ballistic missile (ICBM). I’m not making this up – by definition a true ICBMmust have a range that’s over 5500 kilometre. India’s latest Agnifalls well short of that mark.Definitions cannot be tweaked at the whim of politicians or flacks, which brings us to the ominous conclusion that India does not have an ICBMtoday and won’t have one in the near future.

I’m not suggesting that the Agni-V is a dud. The missile, in fact, plugsa big gap in India’s defence.But first chew on this: in 1971Chinatest fired the Dong Feng-5missile that had a range of over 12,000. So 40 years after living under the shadow of the DF-5, India’s political leadership has finally greenlighted a missile thatcan hit China’s coastal areas –its economic and demographic heartland.Should we be thankful to New Delhi for a missile that is really an extended intermediate range ballistic missile (IRBM) that’s also four decades late? Or should we ponder if our political elites have any grasp of strategy?

Going ballistic over a missile

India’s strategic community and the military have been clamouring for decades that to have bullet-proof security, India needs an ICBM that can reach every major country on the planet;that is, a missile with a range of at least 12,000 kilometres.

Now there are many people on the other side of the debate who question whether ICBMs are such a big deal.Their reasoning is that India’s furthest rival is China so there’s no need for a missile that travels further than that country. Plus, they argue, the US and Europe aren’t inimical to Indiaso why provoke their ire by developing missiles that could target these benign fellows?

Such thinking ignores a basic precept of defence – a nation must forever wage peace but keep its powder dry. ICBMs are strategic weapons and without a global-range missile, India will be unable to break out of its regional context.It’s as simple as that.

In the global slugfest it is the ICBM, the doomsdayweapon that separates the men from the boys. While itis true that economic strength plays a key role in shaping international equations, strategic missiles alone can guarantee fail-safe national security.As the Federation of American Scientists says, “Regardless of the origin of a conflict, a country may involve the entire world simply by threatening to spread the war with an ICBM.”

The supposedly horrendous cost of building and maintaining ICBMs is also touted as a reason why India should shun them. However, for decades China has strutted on the global stage on the strength of just 20 silo-based ICBMs. Today, of course, it has nuclear armed submarines and road mobile ICBMs, but those 20 venerable missiles have given it strategic parity with the US and Russia who each possess hundreds of missiles.

Clearly, strategic missiles are one reason (the other being the permanent seat at the UN Security Council) why regional chipmunks like France andBritain continue to talk big whereas Germany and Japan remain fringe playersdespite having mighty economies. Without a credible ICBM force, India will belooked upon as nothing more than a subcontinental bully – a country that aspires to play hardball with the giants but ends up relegated to the minor league.

Stunted development

The problem with India’s missile development programme is that there is noclear strategic policy or urgency regarding deployment. India is the only country in the world that has developed a range of missiles but which remain either on the drawing board or have got stuck at the demo stage.

In the case of virtually every Agni series missile, after a couple of tests the Defence Research & Development Organisation (DRDO)declaredthat development was complete. The impression conveyed was the missile was ready to be handed over to the army. But then the DRDO went in for an improved version, for the cycle to begin all over again.

Missiles need to be tested dozens oftimes under all sorts of operational conditions to validate their performance andreliability.But take the Agni-IV, which failed its first test in December2010. This missile was not tested again until November 2011.

It’s as if the scientists are sent on a long holiday after each launch. This is not how vonBraun or Sergei Korolyov worked to build strategic missiles for the US and Russia.This approach will not ensure the reliability of India's missile force, but itdrivesmany Indians, well, ballistic.

5000 kilometre red line

Who knows, perhaps the scientists are indeed being sent on extended holidays. The chief reason why India’s ICBM development has proceeded at the speed of snails is intense American pressure. According to the Centre for Land Warfare Studies, New Delhi, in the late 1990s India had to postpone the Agni test flights on more than one occasion under USinfluence.

It is also well-known that back in 1992 the US had asked President Boris Yeltsinto stop the transfer of Russian cryogenic engines although the complex cryogenic technology is of little use in ballistic missiles.

There are three reasons why the US wants to scuttle India’s ICBM plans – one, America’s hopelessly inadequate (some say unworkable) missile defence systems will have the additional task of monitoring Indian ICBMs. Secondly, plain arrogance – a former Cold War opponent shouldn’t be allowed to develop missiles that could target good old American folks. America has, therefore, drawn a red line that it will not tolerate India crossing, and that is the 5000 kilometre mark.

It is in this backdrop that the Chinese,despite theirusually shrill rhetoric,areright when they claim that under NATO pressure India hadlimited the Agni’s range.

Under the sea, under-powered

The same goes for India's nuclear submarine under construction. The Arihant, which willbe launched in a couple of years, will also be hampered by the 700 kilometre range of its submarine launched ballistic missile (SLBM).

By its very definition anuclear-powered, nuclear-armed submarine must be undetectable and strike fromunpredictable ranges. It could be lurking inthe South Pacific, for instance, and yet be able to launch a missile at New York, Londonor Beijing, or all three at the same time. However, armed with a sub-strategic missile, the Arihant will have to get up close – and vulnerable – to the enemyto launch its missiles.

No other country in the world has developed such a short-range SLBM; if India has a new nuclear doctrine we’d like to know what it is. At any rate, after pouring in billions into the nuclear submarine programme, that’s very little bang for the buck.

Missile mislabelling

So why is everyone calling it an ICBM? Two reasons: recently the spat with the army chief has exposed the Indian leaders as irresponsible wimps who have seriously hampered the army’s war fighting capacity. (Where else on the planet can you find an army with a million troops,but with ammunition barely enough for fourdaysof fighting?)

So the political leadership is hoping the Agni-5with an ‘ICBM’ tag will distract voters long enough so they forget how the same politicians have been eroding India’s combat readiness.MBAs couldn’t have done a better marketing job.

The second reason is that the majority of the Indian public doesn’t care about geopolitical matters. According to a survey conducted by the Delhi-based Centre for the Study ofDeveloping Societies in 1999 – only one year after the Pokhran atomic tests – 53.5percent of India's electorate had never even heard of the nuclear tests. Moreover,35.6 percent of the respondents had never heard of China, India’s leading rival.

The last reason is that the media, whose job is to inform is itself misinformed. Barring a few exceptions, Indian journalists are ignorant of defence matters.Many of the defence correspondents are stenographers of the government. Take this amateurish drivel from NDTVa day after the test: “Tipped to be a game changer, Agni-V will make the world fear India.”

You get the picture.

No stopping now?

If there’s some good news it is that missile development has an irresistible momentum of its own. The DRDO insists it won’t capthe missile programme, and is reportedly developing the 16,000 kilometre Surya ICBM, plus an anti-satellite missile, a reusable heavy lift rocket and a hypersonic aircraft among others.

Bharat Karnad, one of the authors of India’s 1999 draft nuclear doctrine, toldArms Control Today: “The technological momentum driving the Indian missile programmeis going to take it well beyond the 5,000 kilometre range Agni-5 and into producinggenuine ICBM category delivery systems, if only to match China.” And he added, “Longer range, more accurate missiles will be developed by India asa technological imperative.”

One can’t but detect a trace of desperation in Karnad’s statement.He and other members of India’s strategic community have long voicedsuch opinions in the hope that the Indian public will demand more urgency and accountability from the political leadership.

Hope, however, is not good policy.

This story was first published at

(About the author: Rakesh Krishnan Simha is a New Zealand based writer and a columnist with Russia Behind the Headlines. He has previously worked with Businessworld, India Today and Hindustan Times, and was news editor with the Financial Express.)

Editor: Whilst India and Indians keep on debating the Chinese response to AGNI, the Chinese have and will thereafter capture significant market share of critical sectors on the Indian economy like telecom and power equipment not to forget toys, images of Hindu Gods, crackers, diwali lights, candles and so on. Note that the Chinese captured the U.S. (market) without firing even a single Missile.