City of Edinburgh Council

Topic Paper 1
Edinburgh’s Population

Joint Strategic Needs Assessment

September 2015

Introduction

This paper gives an overview of Edinburgh’s current and projected population, taking account of the findings fromthe 2011 Census, adopting a starting point of 2012 and looking forward 25years to 2037. Specific topics covered are:

  • Total population profile – Edinburgh and the localities
  • Projections
  • Single person households
  • BME population
  • Migration
  • Gypsy/Travellers
  • Religion

Edinburgh’s population

An understandingof the size and age structure of Edinburgh’s population, at City and locality level, is needed to support the planning and provision of services

Summary of key findings

  • Edinburgh’s total population is estimated to be 487,500
  • 51% are female
  • 15% are aged 0-15 years
  • 70% are aged 16-64
  • 15% are aged 65+, 2% of whom are aged 85 years or over.

Locality profiles

The Integration Scheme proposes four localities within the city. At present, there is some inconsistency in the naming of two of the sectors: East and North East are both used for the same area; similarly, South Central and South East/Centralare in use for the same area.

Data and tables are taken from the 2011 Census, unless otherwise stated.


Table 1.Edinburgh’s Localities – population profile by age, locality and gender

Source: NRS 2013 Mid-Year Population Estimates for Datazones. NB: Population data only available in these 5 year age groupings (by gender).

Table 2. Edinburgh’s Localities – age structure of the population

The following population pyramids illustrate the different population structures of the 4 sectors:-

Summary of most noteable features of the localities:

  • North West
  • the largest population(138,995)
  • one-third (33%) of Edinburgh's child population aged 0-15
  • over a third of the City’s very elderly population (aged 85+ )
  • North East
  • the smallestpopulation (110,550)
  • almost half (46%) of residents are younger adults aged 25-49 compared with the overall Edinburgh proportion of 39%
  • a low proportion of elderly persons aged 65+ (13%)
  • South Central/East
  • a large proportion (40%) are aged 16-24, many of whom will be further education students
  • low proportion of elderly persons aged 65+ (13%)
  • South West
  • has between 22% and 24% shares of Edinburgh’s population for each age group

The age group most likely to need support are very elderly persons aged 85+ and there are estimated to be 10,229 within Edinburgh. As the chart below illustrates – there is almost a five-fold increase in the proportion of people receiving support among those aged over 85 compared with those aged 70-74, as shown in chart 1 below.

Chart 1. Proportion of Edinburgh’s residents aged 65 years and over who received support from the NHS or Health and Social Care in a Year (2009-10 – latest available)

Edinburgh’s future population

Forecasts of the city’s population will help us to estimate future requirements for services, including health and social care services.

Edinburgh’s population is projected to continue its recent rapid growth, rising from 482,600 in 2012 to 537,000 in 2022 – an increase of 54,400 or 11.3% over the next 10 years. Over 25 years, if recent trends continue, Edinburgh’s population would grow by 136,400 or 28.2%, to reach 619,000 in 2037. Over this period, the number of households in Edinburgh is projected to increase by 88,158 from 224,875 to 313,033, which is an increase of 39%. In both numerical and percentage terms, Edinburgh is projected to be home to a faster growing population than anywhere else in Scotland.

Approximately 70% of Edinburgh’s future population growth is accounted for by more people coming to live in the city, with remaining 30% resulting from more births than deaths. However, migration is more volatile than births and deaths and therefore difficult to measure accurately. The numbers shown are projections rather than forecasts, estimating what will happen if recent trends continue but taking no account of future economic changes or policy interventions.

Over the last 30 years male life expectancy in Edinburgh has increased by 7.0 years (to 77.4) ) while female life expectancy has increased by 5.4 years (to 81.9). Looking ahead, the projections envisage a 28% growth in those aged 85+ between 2012 and 2022, a group that makes more intensive use of care services. The number of people aged 85+ is projected to more than double in Edinburgh by 2037 (110% increase from 10,100 to 21,300).

It is important to note that work within the Council suggests that official NRS projections are likely to overestimate Edinburgh’s future population growth in the medium term. These findings are based on the observation that population growth within the City is constrained by the limited potential for new housing.


Single person households in Edinburgh by age

Patterns of single person households in Edinburgh are of interest because social isolation and loneliness can have significant adverse effects on people’s health and well-being, andage and living alone increase the risk of social isolation and loneliness (evidence from Scottish Parliament’s Inquiry into Age and Isolation, 2015). Further, research has shown that ‘living alone was associated with a significantly increased frequency of having had a fall in the preceding year’ (Walker et al, 2006).

As noted below, the information on the ages of older people (e.g. 75-84, 85+ etc) living alone is limited.

Summary of key findings

  • The highest proportion of single householders over 65 is concentrated in the North West Locality.
  • The wards with the largest concentration of single person householders over 65 are Inverleith (NW), Liberton/Gilmerton (SE) and Craigentinny/Duddingston (NE).
  • As noted above, while it is not possible to get a further breakdown of the over 65 householders by age group, there is demographic information at ward level on populations in the 65-74, 75-84 and 85+ categories. The highest concentration of those in all three age band live in the NW, and so we can assume that older people in single households span all of these groups.
  • Liberton/Gilmerton (SE) has the highest concentration of 65-74 year olds followed by Inverleith (NW) and then Almond (NW).
  • In both the 75-84 year olds and 85 years+ categories, Inverleith (NW) has the highest population, followed by Liberton/Gilmerton (SE) and Corstorphine/Murrayfield (NW).

Single person households by age and locality

Source: Scotland’s Census 2011

Older people by age and locality

Source: Scotland’s Census 2011

BME population by age and locality

Health inequalities can be partly attributable to ethnicity andthere are aspects of health where outcomes are worse for specific groups. Topic paper 6 on Edinburgh’s health provides more information. An understanding of size and distribution of the black and minority ethnic population across localities is therefore important for the planning and delivery of services.

Summary of key findings

  • 92% of Edinburgh’s population is white against 96% of the Scottish population as a whole.
  • The South East has the highest concentration of black minority and ethnic (BME) groups in the city.
  • The BME population is relatively young: 42% of all people in BME groups are in the 25-44 years category compared with 32% of the general population; while over 65s make up just 3% of the BME population compared with 14% of the whole population of the city.
  • Under 16 year olds make up 22% of the BME population, compared with just 15% of the whole city’s population.
  • More information can be supplied on the sub classifications for each ethnicity on request.
  • Ward level data is supplied under additional data

Wards with the highest concentration of each BME ethnic group

Ethnic group / Wards
Mixed or multiple / Meadows/Morningside
Asian / Southside/Newington
African / Sighthill/Gorgie
Caribbean or Black / Sighthill/Gorgie
Other / Sighthill/Gorgie

Source: Scotland’s Census 2011

Source: Scotland’s Census 2011 Source: Scotland’s Census 2011

White ethnicity by age and locality

Source: Scotland’s Census 2011

BME ethnicities by age and locality

Source: Scotland’s Census 2011

Proportion of BME populations by age and locality

Edinburgh
All / BME / NW / NE / SE / SW
0-15 / 15% / 22% / 27% / 23% / 18% / 22%
16-24 / 15% / 22% / 14% / 16% / 31% / 22%
25-44 / 32% / 42% / 42% / 47% / 37% / 42%
45-64 / 24% / 11% / 14% / 11% / 11% / 11%
65+ / 14% / 3% / 3% / 3% / 3% / 3%

Source: Scotland’s Census 2011

Edinburgh and non UK migration

Summary of key findings

  • On the assumption that new migrants may have different needs than more established ethnic minorities, the following section provides data on new migrants to the UK, that is people who, according to the Census 2011, lived in another country in the year before the census.
  • Country of origin data is not available at ward level so it is not possible to provide locality profiles for this. Of the 16,143 new migrants to the UK who settled in Edinburgh in 2011, 14,362 were between 16 and 49 years with only 133 over 65 years. The top origin countries for these new migrants were India, China and the USA.
  • In the NW and NE the majority of new migrants were economically active but in the SE and SW it is full time students who make up the highest proportion of economically inactive new migrants.

Top 5% of origin countries for non UK migrants to Edinburgh

Source: ONS Census 2011, Nomis

Economic activity of new non UK migrants by locality

Source: ONS Census 2011, Nomis
Age of new non UK migrants by locality

Source: ONS Census 2011, Nomis

Gypsy/Travellers in Edinburgh

Summary of key findings

  • In 2011, there were 388 Gypsy/Travellers in Edinburgh and 4,212 across Scotland as a whole. This compares to 407 in Glasgow, 279 in Aberdeen City and 98 in Dundee.
  • Gypsy/Travellers account for 0.08% of Edinburgh’s total population which is consistent with the Scottish average. Unfortunately it is not possible to provide any further breakdown of Gypsy/Travellers by ethnicity classifications.
  • The largest concentration of the Gypsy/Traveller communityis found in the South East locality.
  • The ward with the highest population of Gypsy/Travellers is Liberton/Gilmerton (SE) with 58, followed with Portobello/Craigmillar (NE) with 50.

The Gypsy/Traveller population by locality

Source: Scotland’s Census 2011

Religion

Summary of key findings

  • In Scotland as a whole, 37% of the population report having no religion compared with 45% in Edinburgh.
  • In the NW and SW, the predominant group is Christian and in the NE and SE, the largest concentration is of people with no religion.
  • The overwhelmingmajority of those in Edinburgh with a religion are Christian.
  • Ward level data is supplied under additional data.

Religion in Edinburgh and Scotland as a whole

Source: Scotland’s Census 2011

Religions by locality

Edinburgh / NW / NE / SE / SW
Christian / 206565 / 63425 / 44538 / 49456 / 49146
Other religion / 22639 / 4609 / 6047 / 6690 / 5293
No religion / 213651 / 57096 / 49882 / 58827 / 47846
Religion not stated / 33771 / 9397 / 7457 / 9957 / 6960

Source: Scotland’s Census 2011

Breakdown of religious groups by locality

Source: Scotland’s Census 2011

Additional data tables

Figures in the table below are taken from the Edinburgh Census 2011 results.

Ethnicity by ward

White / Mixed or multiple ethnic / Asian, Asian Scottish or Asian British / African / Caribbean or Black / Other
Scotland / 5,084,407 / 19,815 / 140,678 / 29,638 / 6,540 / 14,325
Edinburgh / 437,167 / 4,087 / 26,264 / 4,474 / 1,031 / 3,603
Almond / 24,191 / 116 / 561 / 61 / 33 / 54
Drum Brae/Gyle / 20,851 / 101 / 1,071 / 92 / 32 / 74
Corstorphine/
Murrayfield / 21,940 / 100 / 733 / 87 / 23 / 84
Inverleith / 29,013 / 288 / 1,447 / 169 / 47 / 148
Forth / 30,485 / 274 / 1,467 / 653 / 101 / 231
NW Total / 126,480 / 879 / 5,279 / 1,062 / 236 / 591
Leith / 22,977 / 255 / 1,146 / 272 / 78 / 203
Leith Walk / 28,408 / 371 / 2,572 / 275 / 72 / 169
Craigentinny/
Duddingston / 24,065 / 216 / 1,101 / 192 / 50 / 122
Portobello/Craigmillar / 23,512 / 168 / 1,214 / 292 / 60 / 134
White / Mixed or multiple ethnic / Asian, Asian Scottish or Asian British / African / Caribbean or Black / Other
NE Total / 98,962 / 1,010 / 6,033 / 1,031 / 260 / 628
City Centre / 21,687 / 352 / 1,670 / 169 / 57 / 215
Liberton/Gilmerton / 29,962 / 193 / 2,434 / 306 / 66 / 431
Southside/Newington / 28,779 / 458 / 3,300 / 235 / 69 / 382
Meadows/Morningside / 31,342 / 493 / 1,876 / 182 / 54 / 218
SE Total / 111,770 / 1,496 / 9,280 / 892 / 246 / 1,246
Pentland Hills / 21,955 / 115 / 910 / 481 / 59 / 195
Sighthill/Gorgie / 33,134 / 227 / 2,608 / 691 / 120 / 518
Fountainbridge/
Craiglockhart / 21,830 / 226 / 1,439 / 196 / 54 / 249
Colinton/Fairmilehead / 23,036 / 134 / 715 / 121 / 56 / 176
SW Total / 99,955 / 702 / 5,672 / 1,489 / 289 / 1,138

Religion by ward

Church of Scotland / Roman Catholic / Other Christian / Buddhist / Hindu / Jewish / Muslim / Sikh / Other religion / No religion
Scotland / 1,717,871 / 841,053 / 291,275 / 12,795 / 16,379 / 5,887 / 76,737 / 9,055 / 15,196 / 1,941,116
Edinburgh / 115,634 / 57,868 / 33,063 / 2,380 / 3,996 / 855 / 12,434 / 1,110 / 1,864 / 213,651
Almond / 8,965 / 2,331 / 1,709 / 40 / 66 / 32 / 262 / 38 / 60 / 9,865
Drum Brae/Gyle / 7,516 / 2,269 / 1,129 / 35 / 221 / 16 / 526 / 54 / 81 / 8,990
Corstorphine/Murrayfield / 7,818 / 2,307 / 1,417 / 77 / 210 / 23 / 247 / 31 / 51 / 9,133
Inverleith / 8,183 / 3,310 / 2,641 / 132 / 252 / 49 / 549 / 63 / 114 / 13,469
Forth / 7,285 / 4,390 / 2,155 / 111 / 146 / 27 / 884 / 96 / 116 / 15,639
NW Total / 39,767 / 14,607 / 9,051 / 395 / 895 / 147 / 2,468 / 282 / 422 / 57,096
Leith / 4,617 / 3,737 / 1,446 / 129 / 218 / 30 / 589 / 103 / 111 / 12,199
Leith Walk / 4,763 / 5,029 / 1,999 / 219 / 614 / 65 / 1,114 / 159 / 203 / 15,401
Craigentinny/
Duddingston / 7,176 / 3,747 / 1,161 / 85 / 92 / 17 / 758 / 118 / 119 / 10,763
Portobello/Craigmillar / 6,017 / 3,641 / 1,205 / 63 / 68 / 24 / 963 / 86 / 100 / 11,519
NE Total / 22,573 / 16,154 / 5,811 / 496 / 992 / 136 / 3,424 / 466 / 533 / 49,882
City Centre / 3,245 / 3,080 / 2,613 / 243 / 217 / 123 / 481 / 47 / 157 / 11,961
Church of Scotland / Roman Catholic / Other Christian / Buddhist / Hindu / Jewish / Muslim / Sikh / Other religion / No religion
Liberton/Gilmerton / 8,645 / 4,615 / 1,684 / 102 / 154 / 36 / 1,320 / 102 / 91 / 14,376
Southside/Newington / 5,658 / 3,685 / 3,132 / 339 / 373 / 170 / 1,167 / 64 / 149 / 15,685
Meadows/Morningside / 6,108 / 3,689 / 3,302 / 271 / 197 / 138 / 549 / 39 / 161 / 16,805
SE Total / 23,656 / 15,069 / 10,731 / 955 / 941 / 467 / 3,517 / 252 / 558 / 58,827
Pentland Hills / 7,961 / 2,032 / 1,943 / 84 / 76 / 18 / 579 / 29 / 57 / 9,395
Sighthill/Gorgie / 8,170 / 4,729 / 1,922 / 209 / 728 / 30 / 1,358 / 45 / 166 / 17,724
Fountainbridge/
Craiglockhart / 5,355 / 2,793 / 1,599 / 175 / 266 / 34 / 686 / 19 / 85 / 11,318
Colinton/
Fairmilehead / 8,152 / 2,484 / 2,006 / 66 / 98 / 23 / 402 / 17 / 43 / 9,409
SW Total / 29,638 / 12,038 / 7,470 / 534 / 1,168 / 105 / 3,025 / 110 / 351 / 47,846

Joint Strategic Needs Assessment –Population Analysis v1.1

Further information

References and Further information

Further demographic information is available at

  • Scotland’s Census 2011
  • 2011 Census, NOMIS.
  • Scottish Parliament’s Equal Opportunities Committee has held an inquiry into Age and Social Isolation available at (accessed 19 August 2015)
  • Walker Peterson, E, Clemenson, L (2008). Understanding the Role of Occupational Therapy in Fall Prevention for Community Dwelling Older Adults, OT Practice 13(3).

Contact details

For more information, please contact:

Chris Adams

Business Intelligence | Corporate Governance

The City of Edinburgh Council

0131 529 6258 |

Angel a McInnes

Business Intelligence | Corporate Governance

The City of Edinburgh Council

0131 529 4934 |

Further information

A range of analyses of Edinburgh’s population are available on the City of Edinburgh Council’s Website:

  1. 2011 Census results for Edinburgh: Population Distribution/ Density Maps for selected service user or “client groupings”, CEC Planning Information, Services for Communities, April 2014
  2. 2011 Census results for Edinburgh: Customer Insights and Public Service Provision, CEC Planning Information, Services for Communities, January 2014
  3. Edinburgh and Locality Ward Profiles provide a detailed analysis using a range of data on population, housing, health, education and employment - (still in preparation, Business Intelligence, City of Edinburgh Council)

Contact details

For more information, please contact:

Steven Di Ponio

Lord Provost and Members’ Services

The City of Edinburgh Council

0131 469 3839 |

Russell Morris

Research and Information |Health and Social Care

The City of Edinburgh Council

0131 5538276 |

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