Top Ten Geopolitical Moments in the Last Decade

STRATFOR

Top Ten Geopolitical Moments in the Last Decade

1: September 11, 2001: al Qaeda Attacks the United States

The Post-Cold War world was built around the end of history, the idea that assumption that economics had supplanted geopolitics. On September 11, 2001 history spoke up once again as the radical Islamic group al Qaeda attacked the United States. The attack reshaped the priorities of the world’s only global power both internally and externally. Internally, the American priority became homeland defense. Externally, the global system was reshaped as the United States focused its attention on the Islamic world. This reshaped the way the world worked for a decade.

2: December 11, 2001—China Enters the WTO

China had been surging economically since it changed economic policy under Deng. It continued this surge into the last decade. Many factors influenced this rise, but December 11, 2001 is both a symbolic and practical event driving the second phase of China’s development surge, hyper-charging exports and opening the door for the production and sale of more advanced products. China’s economic rise in the last decade also began the more complex process of China’s entry into the international political system.

3: September 15, 2008—Lehman Brothers goes bankrupt

The global financial crisis was brewing for years but September 15, 2008 was the break point. After Lehman Brothers, any illusion that normal processes could manage the crisis went out the window. The consequences reverberated through the international system, splitting the U.S. from Europe, dividing the Europeans, causing China to face the abyss of what deep global recession could mean for an export based economy. The crisis continues to reverberate in domestic politics and in relations between countries, particularly in Europe. In a way, September 15, 2008 represented the end of the Post-Cold War World.

4: March 20, 2003—United States Invades Iraq

The decision to invade Iraq defined American power through most of the rest of the decade. Almost all U.S. ground forces were committed to the war. The war split the United States from several major European powers, creating tensions that still haven’t been healed. It also created windows of opportunity for both Russia and China, allowing them to pursue their interests without concern of U.S. military response. The failure to anticipate a powerful insurgency left the United States off balance globally for the decade.

5: March 27, 2000—Putin Elected President of Russia

Putin’s election didn’t quite happen in this decade, but it was such an overwhelmingly important event that it has been crucial in defining the decade. Under the communists, Russia had been poor but powerful. Under Boris Yeltsin in became even poorer and weak. Putin’s election was the moment when Russia started to reverse the consequences of the fall of communism, which Putin called the greatest geopolitical catastrophe in history. As Russia has strengthened in the past decade, its regional influence surged, profoundly affecting the former Soviet Union and Europe as well as other regions.

6: October 19, 2010: Merkel and Sarkozy Propose New EU Structure

Angela Merkel and Sarkozy met at Deauville, France to discuss the future of the EU. Merkel had proposed changes to the EU that nations that do not follow EU rules and require help be denied votes in EU Councils and be placed under Brussels supervision. Sarkozy agreed with Merkel’s proposal. The original concept of a union of equals would be replaced by classes of membership based on behavior. Given that the statement was made by the two major EU advocates and powers, the proposal is uniquely credible. It would not only transform the EU but re-open fundamental questions on sovereignty and national rights that had been considered closed.

7: March 29, 2004: NATO Expansion

NATO expanded to include Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia. Add to this date May 1, 2004 when EU expanded to include Cyprus Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia. Add to this the Orange Revolution in Ukraine and you see a massive movement eastward in the two Western institutions. This rang alarm bells in the Kremlin that are still ringing.

8: April 4, 2004--Iran Emerges and Regional Power

On April 4, 2004, Muqtada al Sadr, a Shiite leader in Iraq, started a rising against the United States upon realizing that the United States was not going to agree to a Shiite government in Iraq and therefore was going to block Iranian intentions. The United States, having destroyed the Iraq-Iran balance of power, both unleashed Iranian influence while forcing the Iranians to act. Iran, the largest conventional military power in the region except for U.S. troops, shifted to a more assertive strategy in Iraq that carried on to the region as a whole. There were many points we could point to where Iran shifted to this role, but April 4, 2004 seems the pivot.

9: August 7, 2009—Russo-Georgia War

The first major foreign military operation by Russia since Afghanistan, The Russians delivered two messages. One was that they were able and willing to use military force. The second was that being aligned with the United States does not provide protection. It was a message heard in many capitals of the former Soviet Union and is still being heard.

10: December 1, 2009—Obama Announces Surge in Afghanistan

At a speech at West Point, U.S. President Obama announced that the United States would continue American involvement in at least one major war in the Islamic world while continuing to engage in a smaller one. Operationally switched between Iraq and Afghanistan but from a broader point of view he continued his focus on the Islamic world. The window of opportunity for other powers would remain open.