FILING - 05/26/2010

Basis and Purpose

Chapter 2 - Big Game

Basis and Purpose:

These regulations amend Chapter 2 – Big Game – of the Wildlife Commission regulations and are necessary to properly manage big game populations in Colorado.

These regulations establish limited license numbers for deer, elk, pronghorn, moose, and black bear during seasons which were adopted in January 2010; and include licenses for archery, muzzle-loading, early, regular, plains, late rifle and private land only seasons with respect to each species. Limited license numbers are set for specific game management units or groups of units, although some limited licenses, particularly muzzle-loading elk licenses, are valid over much of the state. Limited license numbers are established to maintain big game herds at or near long-term population objectives, and, in the case of antlered deer, antlered elk, buck pronghorn and moose they are also set to achieve sex ratio objectives. The herd objectives are intended to maintain healthy populations, provide a diversity of hunting opportunities for residents and nonresidents, allow and maintain public recreational opportunity, minimize or control local game damage situations on private land and provide opportunity for landowners to cooperatively manage wildlife with the Division through the Ranching for Wildlife program. These resulting limited license numbers take into account harvest estimates and hunter success rates, wildlife counts and surveys, as well as impacts of winter weather and predation on big game populations. As is the case each year, this effort represents the culmination of numerous hours of work by various Division employees involved in the accumulation and analysis of data and a great deal of time spent with interested publics explaining both the recommendations and the rationale behind them.

Deer

The estimated, statewide posthunt deer population was approximately 460,000 deer in 2009 compared to 466,000 in 2008. This slight decrease is primarily attributable to the continued effects of the winter of 2007-2008 on deer in the SW Region. Deer population estimates in the SW declined by approximately 14,000. In contrast, deer populations in the NW, NE and SE regions remained relatively stable or increasing. The current posthunt population objective range for deer DAUs statewide is 574,000 - 617,000 but is based on earlier models that often appear to have overestimated deer numbers and on outdated objectives some that were set in the 1980’s. Estimated deer harvest in 2009 was 33,900 compared to 35,500 in 2008 representing a 2% decrease in buck harvest and an 11% decrease in doe harvest.

There continues to be good news about overall buck numbers. The average, observed statewide posthunt ratio of bucks/100 does weighted by population size was 30 in 2009 compared to 29 in 2008. Buck/doe ratios continue to rebound in the western slope DAUs impacted by the increased winter mortality of adult bucks and buck fawns during the winter of 2007-2008. Most deer DAUs remained near or over buck/doe ratio objectives. The current weighted average, objective range for DAUs statewide is 27-29 bucks/100 does.

All deer licenses will remain limited in 2010. Due the continued effects of the winter of 2007-2008 in some west slope deer populations and long term declines in overall fawn recruitment in the southwest particularly a decrease of 3,349 deer license is recommended in 2010 for the west slope. This is on top of approximately 7,000 deer licenses eliminated in 2009. The numbers of rifle deer licenses recommended for 2010 in deer DAUs west of I-25 (as compared to 2009) are 11,296 antlerless licenses ( -9%), 3,092 either-sex licenses (1%); and 43,034 antlered licenses (-4%). The largest reductions in antlerless, either-sex, and buck licenses is in D-2 (-1,113 licenses). PLO antlerless licenses in the SW were left mostly unchanged to address ongoing game damage problems. The number of rifle deer licenses recommended for 2010 in deer DAUs east of I-25 (as compared to 2009) are 4,121 antlerless licenses (-5%); 907 either-sex licenses (+39%); and 3,269 antlered licenses (unchanged). Antlerless and either-sex white-tailed deer-only licenses continue to be offered in most plains DAUs in an ongoing effort to control white-tailed deer numbers. The predicted 2010 deer harvest is 32,800 with a predicted 2010 posthunt population estimate of 464,000.

Elk

The estimated statewide elk population was 286,000 in 2009 compared to 283,000 in 2008. Season and license setting focusing on increased antlerless harvest continues to make inroads into populations. As more elk populations approach objective, antlerless harvest can be expected to decrease substantially. The current posthunt population objective range for elk DAUs statewide is 207,000 - 239,000 and is partially based on earlier models that underestimated elk numbers. Although most elk DAUs are at or above their current population objectives, the public has expressed increased concern that elk populations are becoming too low in some DAUs even though objectives are still exceeded. The CDOW is continuing to update DAU plans and will give serious consideration to raising objectives in some herds as a result of this feedback from the public; however, this input must still be balanced with the concerns of landowners and public land management agencies. Estimated elk harvest in 2009 was 47,716 compared to 45,263 in 2008 representing a 2% increase in bull harvest and a 9% increase in cow harvest. This is attributed to better weather during the primary hunting seasons.

The average, observed posthunt ratio of bulls/100 cows weighted by population size was 24 in 2009 which was similar to the average observed ratio in 2008. The current weighted average, objective range for DAUs statewide is 22-26. Most elk DAUs are near or over bull/cow ratio objectives.

Elk licenses available in most units in 2010 will include over-the-counter archery licenses and 2nd and 3rd season rifle bull licenses along with limited rifle and muzzleloader licenses. All elk licenses will be limited for muzzleloader, 1st, 4th, and late seasons. As part of the 2010-2014 Big Game Season Structure (BGSS) either-sex muzzleloader licenses are available in some units and all muzzleloader elk licenses will be issued by GMU/DAU. Unit specific muzzleloading elk licenses allows for a more representative distribution of hunting pressure across GMUs. The number of muzzleloading bull and total muzzleloading elk licenses increased by 866 and 646 respectively over 2009 numbers. The BGSS Limited Elk Unit Nomination process created a unique license structure for northern Gunnison Basin DAUs (E-41 and E-43) to increase antlerless harvest and reduce the population by directing harvest into more efficient seasons and onto private lands. Statewide the number of limited antlerless and either-sex elk rifle licenses decreased 1% from 2009 to 118,472 in 2010. The largest decreases were in E-2 (-2,033) and E-6 (-2,502) both in the NW. Decreases were made to move populations towards objective, decelerate the rate of reduction as populations decreased, or to eliminate previously unsold licenses. The largest limited antlerless and either-sex license increases occurred in E-14 (+1,550) and E-41 (+835) which are well over objective. The number of 1st season, limited rifle bull and either sex licenses, excluding PLO licenses, changed little on a statewide basis from 2009 with 20,712 recommended in 2010. First season, rifle either-sex PLO licenses decreased 2% to 5,130. The number of 4th season limited, rifle antlered and either-sex licenses increased 2% to 10,481. Continued reductions in antlerless licenses are anticipated in the future as more populations approach objectives. The predicted 2010 elk harvest is 46,000 with a predicted 2010 posthunt population of 284,000.

Pronghorn

The estimated, statewide posthunt pronghorn population was 76,000 in 2009 compared to 74,000 in 2008. Several pronghorn models were improved in 2009 by including distance sampling estimates. The current population objective range for pronghorn DAUs statewide is 62,730 - 65,780. Most pronghorn DAUs on the eastern plains, particularly in the SE Region, are over population objective. In 2009 estimated pronghorn harvest was a record harvest of 10,941 representing a 15% increase in buck harvest and a 47% increase in doe harvest.

The average, observed prehunt and modeled posthunt ratios of bucks/100 does weighted by population size was 45 in 2009 compared to 51 in 2008. The weighted average posthunt objective range for buck/doe ratios statewide is 40-41. Most pronghorn DAUs are near or over buck/doe ratio objectives.

All pronghorn licenses will remain limited in 2010 with the exception of over-the-counter archery licenses available in many DAUs. The number of rifle licenses recommended for 2010 was increased 8% from 2009 to 10,807 doe licenses and 7,968 buck licenses. License numbers were increased in the SE to help move towards DAU population and sex ratio objectives. The most notable increases in doe license numbers were in A-6, A-8, A-12, and A-18 in the SE Region. Late doe seasons were added in several SE Region DAUs in 2009 to help distribute hunting pressure and increase doe harvest success. Landowners in the SE Region have expressed concern that hunter saturation levels on private land could be exceeded if pronghorn license numbers were increased too much. Notable increases in buck license numbers occurred in the SE Region in A-5, A-6, A-7 and A-18. The predicted 2010 pronghorn harvest is 12,200 with a predicted 2010 posthunt population of 76,500.

Moose

Moose populations appear to be doing well throughout the state. The estimated statewide posthunt moose population in DAUs open to moose hunting in 2009 was 1,580 in 2009 compared to 1,365 in 2008. The current population objective range for these DAUs is 1,590 - 1,990. In 2009, the Grand Mesa (M-5) opened to moose hunting for the first time. The M-5 moose population is currently estimated at 150 with an objective range of 300 - 400. Statewide moose harvest was 150 in 2009 compared to 157 in 2008.

All moose licenses will remain limited in 2010 with license demand far exceeding the supply. License numbers in 2010 will decrease 10% compared to 2009. This decrease is primarily the result of reducing the number of cow licenses in North Park (M-1) from 57 to 33 because this DAU is currently a little below objective. An increase of two bull licenses is recommended for M-5 in 2010. The predicted 2010 moose harvest is 149 with a predicted 2010 posthunt population of 1,560 in hunted units.

Bear

In 2010 the sum of DAU harvest and total mortality objectives is 863 and 1,011 respectively. The sum of license allocations for all DAUs is 11,980 licenses, a 7.2% (803 licenses) increase from the 2009 allocation. The predicted harvest with the approved license allocations is 821 and females are expected to comprise about 36% to 38% of the harvest.

2009 forage conditions in most DAUs in Colorado were normal in most DAUs, but several DAUs (B-9, B-11, and portions of B-17) experienced below normal but not catastrophic forage conditions. Bear vulnerability to hunter harvest should have been normal to slightly more vulnerable than normal. Hunter success rates were above average, and for some seasons, much better than average. Since hunter effort is generally equal from year to year, increases in hunter success when and where bear vulnerability is normal suggests that bear populations are robust. Where bear vulnerability to hunter harvest was slightly greater than normal we expected and saw increases in hunter success and harvest amounts. Two different versions of deterministic bear population models were applied to bear DAU complexes and on a statewide scale. Multiple simulations were conducted using historic and current harvest and non-hunt mortality levels. Simulations showed declining bear populations generally only when pessimistic rates within a range of plausible assumed reproduction and survival rates were applied.

Along with the foregoing information, analysis of 3 year average mortality levels and types, annual variation in environmental conditions, results of applicable research, and local knowledge and experience related to forage conditions, access, changes in land status, game damage and human-bear conflicts form the basis for the recommendations.

Recommendations for bear harvest objectives and license allocations fall into 5 categories:

Static objective - static license allocation, 7 DAUs (B-2, B-3, B-6, B-10, B-13, B-14, B-16): Available information indicates objectives should not change. Harvest and total mortality are within objectives, or if exceeding are likely to be within/near objectives after this year. Current license allocations appear sufficient in relation to objectives.

Static objective - increased license allocation, 5 DAUs (B-4, B-5, B12, B18, B19): Available information indicates that objectives should not change, but may be increased in future with further analysis. Increased harvest would be acceptable under present conditions. Other DAUs show harvest below or at objective levels and increased harvest is acceptable.

Increased objective - static license allocation, 2 DAUs (B-7 and B-17): Available information indicates that the bear population and productivity are currently more robust than is reflected in these (Grand Mesa) plan objectives; therefore we propose increased interim objectives pending DAU plan revision. Current license allocations are predicted to stabilize the population.

Increased objective - increased license allocation, 5 DAUs (B-1, B-8, B-9, B-11, B-15): Management approach is to stabilize 3 DAUs at current population levels B-8, B-9, and B-15). Management approach in B-1 is to reduce and stabilize at a reduced level. Management approach in B-11 is to reduce the current population substantially and then stabilize at the reduced level.

Multiple levels of monitoring are being implemented to examine population status and achievement of desired management goals. Two and possibly 3 mark-recapture population survey locations are/will be established to current density estimates, population trend predictions, and population indices. Age and gender structure in hunter harvest and all mortality are examined by tooth cementum age and genetic analysis. Monitoring success, median age in harvest, proportion of adult males, females, and adult females, human-bear conflict incidents, and damage claims will allow for adaptive management to achieve management objectives. License allocations in B-11 in particular are part of a multi-prong approach, along with community efforts at strengthening local ordinances, enforcement, conflict animal management and research to achieve management objectives.

The statutory authority for these regulations can be found in §24-4-103, C.R.S., and the state Wildlife Act, §§33-1-101 to 33-6-209, C.R.S., specifically including, but not limited to: §§33-1-101, 102, 104, 105, 106-108, 115, and 121; §§33-2-104, 105, 106, and 107; §33-3-104; §§33-4-101, 102, 102.5, 103, 116, 116.5, 117, and 119; §33-5.5-102; and §§33-6-107, 109, 112, 113, 113.5, 114, 114.5, 117, 119, 120, 121, 124, 127, 128, 129, 131, 205, 206, 207, and 208.