Since the Start of the Bush Presidency, Venezuela Was a Source of Tension and Conflict

1

Since the start of the Bush presidency, Venezuela was a source of tension and conflict. Even before Bush was sworn in, his officials said Venezuela would be a “hot spot” for the new administration.[1] One of Bush’s top priorities concerning Venezuela was the promotion of democracy and the influence of groups outside of the US to condemn the Venezuelan leader, Hugo Chavez.[2]

The Bush administration did not want to resort to direct conflict with Chavez, but initially preferred influencing other Latin American countries to denounce the Venezuelan leader.[3] The administration also planned to contact the Venezuelan military, knowing they were not proponents of the Chavez regime.[4] Much of the discreet prodding of the US came to light after a 48-hour coup ousted Chavez in April of 2002.[5] The US immediately endorsed the Carmona government that replaced Chavez, only to see Chavez return to power in less than two days.[6] Allegations from Chavez that the US was behind the coup were bolstered by reports that US officials had met with some of the opposition leaders in the weeks before the coup.[7]

Multiple reports and accounts came out which showed that the US at least implicitly supported the coup. An unnamed Defense Department official said, “We were not discouraging people,” when asked about the US role in the coup.[8] Wayne Madsen, a former US intelligence officer, went even further and said the US had been considering a coup to oust Chavez since June 2001, just five months into the Bush presidency.[9] Madsen also claimed that the US Navy helped in the coup by “assisting with signals intelligence.”[10] The US has also funded opposition groups and protesters of Chavez’s government through organizations such as the National Endowment for Democracy (NED).[11] Conflicts between the Bush administration and Chavez did not end after 2002, as the coup only increased tensions.[12] In August 2004, an NGO named Súmate called for Chavez’s removal via referendum.[13] The leader of Súmate, Maria Corina Machado, was a probable supporter of the 2002 coup and was able to retrieve grants from United States Agency for International Development (USAID), furthering Chavez’s suspicions that the US was trying to oust him again.[14] Chavez has said that he will cut off oil supplies to the US if there are any outright “American aggressions.”[15]

The second, and perhaps most important, foreign policy priority of the Bush administration regarded the oil that Chavez has threatened to stop exporting. The US has $50 billion in annual trade with Venezuela, and trade increased 36% just from 2006 to 2007.[16] The US takes in one third of all of Venezuela’s exports, making it Venezuela’s largest importer.[17] Most of those imports are oil, as approximately 11.5% of US oil imports are from Venezuela.[18] With such a high dependence on Venezuelan oil, the Bush administration has treaded carefully, not making any open attacks on Chavez.[19] Companies such as Halliburton are thriving in Venezuela, meaning corporations are pushing the Bush administration to keep oil coming in from Venezuela and to keep trade relations open with the country.[20]

The Bush administration had to deal with several problems regarding Venezuela’s oil exporting, including a 2003 strike by Venezuelan workers that shut down the oil industry, driving up gas prices in the US and delaying a war in Iraq.[21] The US lobbied oil exporters to increase their production in order to counteract the halt in Venezuelan production, showing the necessity of Venezuelan oil to the US economy.[22] OPEC responded to US calls for increased production and to fears of possible war in Iraq by increasing quotas by 6.5%.[23] There are also indicators of Chavez trying to lessen his country’s dependence on US refineries.[24] In 2006, Venezuela’s national oil company sold its stake in a Houston oil refinery for over $1.3 billion, seemingly matching Chavez’s rhetoric of decreasing dependence on the US refineries.[25]

The final important priority of the Bush administration was targeting Venezuelan relations with terrorists. The Bush administration aggressively pursued a policy targeting drug traffickers in nearby Colombia, particularly FARC (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia), a South American terrorist group.[26] In 2006, the US Department of State labeled Venezuela “not fully cooperative” in aiding their fight against terrorism.[27] It also pointed out Chavez’s alliances with Iran and Cuba and his public championing of Iraqi terrorists as two ways in which Venezuela has been not only uncooperative, but counterproductive.[28] However, Venezuela is not on the State Sponsors of Terrorism list despite many officials advocating for its inclusion.[29]

Venezuela has also been getting closer to Iran, one of the four countries on the US State Sponsors of Terrorism List.[30] The US openly opposed Venezuela’s bid to secure the rotating seat on the UN Security Council because they feared Venezuela could rile up smaller countries to oppose UN sanctions on Iran.[31] They also feared Chavez’s support of Iran could undermine efforts to halt Iran’s nuclear program.[32]

The top foreign policy initiatives for the next administration should be twofold. The first should be scaling back US dependence on Venezuelan oil as a precautionary move. Signs of Chavez trying to make Venezuela less dependent on US refineries and the amount of tension present between the two countries make weaning the US off of Venezuelan oil an imperative.[33] An increase in oil imports from other countries, such as Canada, would counteract the loss of Venezuelan oil.[34] However, the US should not immediately cut off oil imports from Venezuela. With oil prices dropping, a complete stop to US purchases of oil could cripple Venezuela, since the US is the only country that pays full price for its crude.[35] There is no need to punish Venezuela, as it is still the fourth largest supplier of oil to the US.[36] It is as equally important to normalize relations with Venezuela as it is to scale back dependence on Venezuelan oil so that a precautionary weaning does not turn into a necessary withdrawal.

Normalizing relations with Venezuela should be a priority not only because the US depends heavily on its oil exports, but because Venezuela has been involved in activities that are redolent of the Cold War. One such activity is the buying of arms from Russia.[37] Chavez and Vladimir Putin have a burgeoning friendship that has led to over $4.5 billion in arms purchases for Chavez and plans for a $6.5 billion refinery to be built in Russia for processing Venezuela’s crude oil.[38] The US has protested to Russia about the arms purchases, but Russia said the objections were baseless.[39] In September 2008, Russia sent warships to Venezuelan waters in a level of deployment not seen since the Cold War.[40] Rather than simply complaining to Russia, the US must attempt to normalize relations with Venezuela in order to avoid the possibility of another Cold War. In order to do this, the US must complete several objectives, the first being the cessation of the debate over whether Venezuela should be added to the State Sponsors of Terrorism list, as placing them on the list would only further strain relations.[41] Now that Chavez has spoken out against FARC, there is no need to agitate relations by adding them to the list; keeping the status quo, which lists them as “not fully cooperating” with counterterrorism efforts, is enough.[42] Organizations such as USAID and NED must also stop funding opposition groups in Venezuela. Nothing positive has come out of it for the US; Chavez is still in power, and it has only helped the Venezuelan leader to try to legitimize accusations that the US wishes to remove him.[43] It may not even be necessary to try to oust him, as support for Chavez in Venezuela has recently decreased and he is still subject to term limits.[44] Lowering dependence on Venezuelan oil while simultaneously trying to ensure continued oil imports from them by normalizing relations with Chavez should be the main priorities of the next administration.

[1] Christopher Marquis, “Bush Could Get Tougher on Venezuela’s Leader” The New York Times (Webpage of The New York Times) Dec. 28, 2000. http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9406E4DD1E38F93BA15751C1A9669C8B63

[2] Ibid.

[3] Ibid.

[4] Ibid.

[5] For more information on the 2002 coup that ousted Chavez, see:

“Interim Venezuelan President Sworn In” BBC News (Webpage of BBC News) Apr. 13, 2002. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/1927322.stm

“The Untold Story of Venezuela’s 2002 April Crisis” Caracas Chronicles (Eyewitness account from a reporter who was in Venezuela as the events of the coup unfolded. He witnessed some of the shooting and protesting that led to Chavez’s ouster.) Apr. 14, 2004. http://caracaschronicles.blogspot.com/2004/04/untold-story-of-venezuelas-2002-april.html

[6] Ed Vulliamy, “Venezuela Coup linked to Bush Team” The Guardian (Webpage of The Guardian, Britain’s third most circulated newspaper) Apr. 21, 2002. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2002/apr/21/usa.venezuela

[7] Greg Palast, “Warning to Venezuelan Leader” BBC News (Webpage of BBC News) May, 2002. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/newsnight/1985670.stm

US officials admitted to meeting with opponents of Chavez in the preceding weeks, but told them they would not support a coup, instructing the opposition groups to use only constitutional means. The US eventually signed an OAS resolution that called the coup undemocratic. For more information on the coup and US official reaction, see:

“US Denies Backing Chavez Plotters” BBC News (Webpage of BBC News) Apr. 16, 2002. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/1933526.stm

Associated Press, “Venezuela’s Chavez Says United States Must Explain Reaction to Coup” Commondreams.org (Website that publishes its own stories as well as syndications from the AP, such as this one) May 10, 2002. http://www.commondreams.org/headlines02/0510-05.htm

[8] “US Denies Backing Chavez Plotters” BBC News (Webpage of BBC News) Apr. 16, 2002. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/1933526.stm

[9] Duncan Campbell, “American Navy ‘helped Venezuelan coup’” The Guardian (Webpage of The Guardian) Apr. 29,2002. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2002/apr/29/venezuela.duncancampbell

[10] Ibid.

[11] The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) also funded anti-Chavez groups, donating approximately $25 million dollars over a five-year period. USAID and NED both support the foreign policy goals of the US and both are funded by Congress, thereby making their actions an extension of the US government. Because of the controversy surrounding possible US involvement in the coup, Senator Chris Dodd (D-CT) requested that the State Department perform an inquiry into the events that transpired in the days and weeks before the coup. In July of 2002, the Office of Inspector General (OIG) released a report saying there was no evidence to substantiate Chavez’s claims that the US was behind the coup. Though the OIG vindicated the US, the aforementioned key events still show the US being a tacit supporter of Chavez’s ouster. For more details on USAID, NED and the controversy surrounding possible US involvement in the coup, see:

Duncan Campbell, “American Navy ‘helped Venezuelan coup’” The Guardian (Webpage of The Guardian) Apr. 29,2002. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2002/apr/29/venezuela.duncancampbell

Simon Romero, “Venezuela Groups get US Aid Amid Meddling Charges” The New York Times (Webpage of The New York Times) Nov. 9, 2006. http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/09/world/americas/09venezuela.html?scp=10&sq=us%20and%20venezuela&st=cse

USAID Official Website “USAID: Frequently Asked Questions” Last updated Nov. 8, 2007. http://www.usaid.gov/faqs.html

NED Official Website “NED Frequently Asked Questions” Last updated July 1, 2008. http://www.ned.org/about/faq.html#Is%20NED%20part%20of%20the%20U.S.%20Government

Tom Barry, “World Movement for Democracy – Made in the USA” Right Web (Webpage of the Policy Research Associates, a nonprofit research group that specializes in research and studies on right wing politics) July 29, 2005. http://rightweb.irc-online.org/rw/175.html

“US investigates Venezuela coup role” BBC News (Webpage of BBC News) May 14, 2002. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/1988213.stm

“A Review of US Policy Toward Venezuela: November 2001 - April 2002” United States Department of State and the Broadcasting Board of Governors: Office of Inspector General. Published July 2002. http://oig.state.gov/documents/organization/13682.pdf

[12] For more information on which actions raised tensions between the US and Venezuela, see:

“’Plan Balboa’ not a US plan to invade Venezuela” US Department of State (Webpage of the US Dept. of State) Jan. 26, 2006. http://usinfo.state.gov/media/Archive/2006/Jan/26-757568.html

Deborah James, “Time for a New Foreign Policy Toward Venezuela: When Apologies Are Not Enough” Venezuelanalysis.org (Website devoted to news, analysis and opinion on Venezuela in particular) Aug. 25, 2005. http://www.venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/1317

Hampden Macbeth, “The Not so Odd Couple: Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez and Cuba’s Fidel Castro” Venezuelanalysis.org (Website devoted to news, analysis and opinions on Venezuela in particular) June 22, 2005. http://www.venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/1207

Justin Blum, “Chavez Pushes Petro-Diplomacy” The Washington Post (Webpage of The Washington Post) Nov. 22, 2005. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/11/21/AR2005112101800.html

“Chavez: Bush ‘devil’; US ‘on the way down’” CNN.com (Webpage of CNN) Sept. 21, 2006. http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/americas/09/20/chavez.un/index.html

[13] Jonah Gindin, “Democracy vs. Bush-o-cracy in Venezuela” Venezuelanalysis.org (Website devoted to news, analysis and opinions on Venezuela in particular) June 1, 2005. http://www.venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/1160

[14] Ibid.

[15] Juan Forero, “Venezuelan Leader, Battling a Recall, Mocks Bush” The New York Times (Webpage of The New York Times) Mar. 1, 2004. http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9B03EED8163FF932A35750C0A9629C8B63&scp=7&sq=venezuela%20bush&st=cse

[16] James Surowiecki, “Synergy with the Devil” The New Yorker (Webpage of The New Yorker) Jan. 8, 2007. http://www.newyorker.com/talk/financial/2007/01/08/070108ta_talk_surowiecki

Simon Romero, “US Say it Will Oust Venezuela Envoy, and Names 2 Officials as Rebel Backers” The New York Times (Webpage of The New York Times) Sept. 12, 2008. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/13/world/americas/13venez.html?scp=5&sq=us%20and%20venezuela&st=cse

[17] James Surowiecki, “Synergy with the Devil” The New Yorker (Webpage of The New Yorker) Jan. 8, 2007. http://www.newyorker.com/talk/financial/2007/01/08/070108ta_talk_surowiecki

[18] Canada, Saudi Arabia and Mexico are the top three suppliers of oil to the US, above Venezuela. Canada accounts for 18.6% of US oil intake, Saudi Arabia accounts for 14.5% and Mexico accounts for 14.1%.

Map courtesy of Energy Information Administration, “American’s Top Annual Suppliers of Crude Oil in 2007) Center for American Progress (Website dedicated to progressive movement in America. Used a map provided by the EIA) May 21, 2008. http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2008/05/oil_imports.html

[19] Juan Forero, “Venezuelan Leader, Battling a Recall, Mocks Bush” The New York Times (Webpage of The New York Times) Mar. 1, 2004. http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9B03EED8163FF932A35750C0A9629C8B63&scp=7&sq=venezuela%20bush&st=cse