EXSUM
USASOC Futures Forum
28 June 2016
Briefers:
Dr. Peter Eltsov, NDU;,
Vera Zakem, CNA Center for Stability and Development;, phone: 703-309-8979
Team;
USASOC Futures Forum was held on Tuesday, 28 June 2016 with Dr. Robert Toguchi, USASOC G9 Concepts Division Chief, hosting the event in a VTC/phone forum. This event is designed to connect the military, industry, think tanks and academic community to operationalize over 14 years of war and to gain benefits of best practices to address the requirements of the future. USASOC continues to operationalize the CONUS base and find opportunities explore critical thinking and innovation through projects, concepts, and exercises.
Dr. Peter Eltsov (NDU) briefed "Intellectual Motivators of Insurgencies & Movements." Dr. Eltsov opened his presentation with a discussion on motivators of insurgency and separatist movements and providing select examples. He followed this with a short discussion on his views regarding the USASOC G9's four frames to explore "who are the intellectual motivators of insurgencies and resistance movements":
* Frame 1 - The Theoretical
* Frame 2 - Originator of the Big Idea
* Frame 3 - Motivator of the Big Idea Today
* Frame 4 - The Practitioner of Today
For frames 1 - 3, Dr. Eltsov posited that these people are often the intellectual elite-well educated, religious leaders/elite, and/or political elite. [During post-VTC discussion, Dr. Eltsov discussed the role of ego, desire for power, and money, combined with grievances, as key motivators for resistance leaders.] As for the practitioner of today, Dr. Eltsov stated that this can be the masses (e.g. Pakistan), but often is the lower/middle class, who are ideologically willing to support a resistance movement. The remainder of Dr. Eltsov's presentation focused on conflicts/insurgencies inthe Caucasus and Northern Caucasus. Although Russia believes there is no longer an insurgency in Chechnya, a brutal, autocratic regime is suppressing an underlying motivation to resist/separate from Russia.
Questions and comments:
Dr. Spencer Meredith, NDU, asked about the impact of social media?
Dr. Eltsov replied that social media plays a crucial role-really establishing a different form of warfare through the media.
Dr. Toguchi, USASOC G9, asked about the road to recognition-what is the catalyst to be propelled into the limelight?
Dr. Eltsov replied that there are a combination of factors-clan history, family, and previous actions. Dr. Eltsov mentioned the three portraits commonly found in N. Caucasus-Shamil, Stalin, and Putin-emphasizing the role of powerful leaders.
Mr. Dave Paddock, USASOC G9, asked about Chechen independence being exploited by AQ and ISIS in a quid pro quo funding for separatists in exchange for adopting and creating the Caucasus Emirate; is ideology or power/money the primary motivator?
Dr. Eltsov answered that the Caucasus never really joined ISIS; there is an element of both ideology and money; desire to be recognized.
Mr. Dave Paddock, USASOC G9, also asked how can the N. Caucasus tribes be leveraged to seek separation from Russia while resisting radicalization by Islam-creating a win/win scenario for the west?
Dr. Eltsov referenced the N. Caucasus tribe, Avars; he doesn't see a solution if Russia withdraws; if Russia doesn't maintain control of N. Caucasus, there is a high probability of instability similar to the Balkans.
Ms. Vera Zakem (CNA) briefed "Russia's Use of Compatriot Population." Ms. Zakem discussed Russia's use of compatriots to further its political objectives in neighboring countries. Ms. Zakem discussed Russia's strategic calculus (overarching foreign policy objectives), operational calculus (how), explored tools for working with compatriot populations, the various mediums for information operations and the effectiveness of each, and selected implications for Russia and the U.S.
Questions and comments:
Dr. Toguchi, USASOC G9, asked if there is any evidence that Russia is actively encouraging Russians to move to other countries [to bolster compatriot populations]?
Ms. Zakem replied no, Russia is leveraging existing compatriot populations; in some cases the opposite is happening-compatriots are moving back to Russia.
Dr. Spencer Meredith, NDU, asked how can the U.S. deal with the issue of lawfare as it relates to compatriot policy?
Ms. Zakem did not have an answer for this problem.
Dr. Toguchi, USASOC G9, asked if there is a deliberate campaign to compete for [compatriot] national identity?
Ms. Zakem stated there is an influence effort to strengthen national identity with Russia. Russia's effort is linked to their security and political objectives of E. Europe and Asia.part of their broader strategic calculus.
Mr. Brian Stoll, USASOC G9, asked if there is a [compatriot] population saturation threshold to enable Russian objectives?
Ms. Zakem responded yes, broadly; more analysis is required.
Dr. Peter Eltsov, NDU, asked about support in Kazakhstan for the use of compatriot population, given the increased regional effect from the Chinese on the general population? (vs Ukraine proximity to Russia.)
Ms. Zakem acknowledged that the Central Asia region would be more difficult to influence.
As we continue to explore the "Intellectual Motivators" two refined questions are:
"Is there a pattern that leads to success?"
and,
"What type of personality profile will an emerging influencer have?"
Presentation slides will be posted separately.