STATISTICS 4

Cooperation project on reform of official statistics in the Russian Federation

Harmonisation of the Methodology for Estimating Statistical Indicators Pursuant to International Standards and Methodologies

January 2001

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CONTENTS

1. PREFACE......

2. INTRODUCTION......

3. PROBLEM ANALYSIS......

Figure 1: PROBLEM TREE

4. OBJECTIVES..……………………………………………………8

Figure 2: TREE OF OBJECTIVES

5. COORDINATION WITH OTHER DONORS.………………..10

6. INTERVENTION LOGIC..…………………………………….10

7. ACTION PLAN.. ………………………………………………..12

8. MEANS AND COSTS...... 12

9. LOGICAL FRAMEWORKS…………………………………...14

1. PREFACE

The present document is aimed at identifying and analysing the existing problems and setting out priorities and objectives to be solved within the TACIS "Statistics-4" Programme. It describes a Project entitled "Harmonisation of the Methodology for Estimating Statistical Indicators Pursuant to Standards and Methodologies Set by International Organisations". The Project is focused on a number of issues related to developing unified methodological approaches to estimate statistical indicators released by the Russian Federation for data exchange with national statistical services and international organisations. The Project is a logical continuation of methodological studies and practices exercised undertaken earlier in this domain of statistics.

This project has been prepared by the Goskomstat of Russia.

The project's practical implementation will enable to enhance the national system of statistical indicators harmonised with requirements set by internationally approved standards and methodologies.

2. INTRODUCTION

The integration of Russia into the global economic system, namely, within the Agreement for Partnership and Co-operation Bbetween the Russian Federation and the European Community, as well as development of data exchange practice with national statistical services and international organisations have necessitated the harmonisation of methodologies for estimating Russian statistical indicators pursuant to standards and methodologies of international organisations and the need to release statistical data that would be consistent with the generally accepted methodologiesy of their measuring.

In view of this, the ТАCIS Тacis "Statistics-4" Programme sets out the target of developing measures aimed at enhancing estimates on the system of national accounts including measures on studying and practically applying the methodology for constructing accounts for different economic sectors.

The second important area of efforts to be fulfilled within the TACIS Tacis "Statistics-4" Programme includes the development of the national classification for institutional units by economic sector (ESC) which should be based on the international system of national accounts. This will allow providing for logical consistency with the previous area of efforts on improving estimates of the SNA.

These objectives are particularly important to achieve in transition economies in general, and have specific importance in the actual macro-economic situation of Russia. After the 1998 financial crisis, and the recession that followed, it is vital to be able to produce timely and reliable data on major macro-economic indicators, in order to fulfill the mission of the Goskomstat, which is to provide the bodies of State authority and administration, the media, the population, the scientific community, private companies and enterpreneurs, international organisations, with an objective and exhaustive information.

The National Accounts, and their detailed breakdown by institutional sector are important indicators that need to be available to all the decision makers, be them private or governmental bodies, and to the international community, specially in the case of a country receiving large international technical and financial aid from various donors.

Topicality The relevance and priority status of this work programme of this are stipulated by the objectives set out by the Federal Programme “Reforming Statistics in 1997-2000”. In compliance with the saidit, one of the major steps in implementing reforms comprises the development of the system for consistent Russian-wide classifications and statistical indicators harmonised with requirements of international standards and classifications (UN, European CommunityUnion).

Major objectives within this pProject captureinclude:

development of unified methodological recommendations for sectoral statistics on estimating statistic indicators consistent with indicators in the system of national accounts and compliant to international standards' requirements;

development of harmonised methodology for constructing accounts by economic sectors;

undertaking of pilot surveys on the basis of improved methodology in order to broaden the use of the results for the university;

practical application of developed proposals on improving methodological framework of the national statistical system.

development of methodological framework for classifications within the unified national system of statistical classifications mechanisms of their application in statistical practices.

Adaptation of the above mentioned methodologies and classifications at the regional level.

3 PROBLEM ANALYSIS

The Iintegration of Russia into the world economic community and its transition to international accounting and statistical standards have raised the requirement to for the quality of released statistics and predetermined the need for developing unified methodological approaches to estimate statistical indicators. The situation which faced the Goskomstat in the beginning of the transition period was of a total changeover; the previous system of indicators had to be abandoned, the system of public accounting and private accounting were suddenly rendered obsolete, and it was necessary to make a rapid transition to new methodologies, new methods of calculating the GDP of the country, and the System of National Accounts (SNA) used in the European Union was a cornerstone for the modernisation and change undertaken by Goskomstat.

It is now necessary to go to a second phase, and to improve the quality of the SNA estimates produced by the Goskomstat, in order to help it produce reliable and timely data on its national Accounts, and as detailed as possible figures on all major economic sectors. The needs of the international community in comparability of data call for the fullest possible implementation of international classifications and methodologies, specially now that the Goskomstat exchanges data with most international institutions ( World Bank, IMF, UN-ECE), including Eurostat itself.

The Goskomstat of Russia has been conducting extensive activities on improving methodology for constructing statistical indicators, nevertheless there are still problems to be faced for developing the unified system of indicators and classifications harmonised with international methodological requirements and standards. Imperfections of methods for statistical estimation of selected indicators, as well as sustained continuous inconsistenciesy of the national statistical practices with statistic methodologies accepted by international organisations have stipulated indicated the choice of direction for studies the activities and projects to be conveyed undertaken within the given Programme. Unification of major attributes of statistic indicators and the development of the unified scheme for itemising their components constitute a prerequisite for streamlining mutual data exchanges, particularly in the domain of economic information, where the demand for such data which has been increasingly growing due to extended scope of co-operation.

Within the framework of implementing Tacis "Statistics-4" Programme the central place is occupied by activities related to enhancing the system of estimates within the system of national accounts and developing the unified system of statistical classifications. These activities present a core moment at the present stage of reforming the Russian statistical system pursuant to intentional standards.

Harmonising the Russian statistic methodology in compliance to standards and methods used by international organisations will enable to develop and practically implement methods for defining and measuring statistic indicators as well as methods for systematising data comparable with international standards in methodology. It will enable the Goskomstat to produce valuable statistical information of the highest possible quality, which will be used by government authorities for policy making, by private enterprises for investment decisions, and by international institutions to assess the level and speed of the economic transition, and to evaluate the effects of previous assistance, and to better plan future technical assistance programmes.

In order Tto reach harmonisation of methodologies to estimate statistical indicators, the following is required:

-highlight areas for improving the methodological framework of Russian statistics in terms of constructing setting up statistical indicators and classifications;

-develop the concept of compiling consistent accounts by different specific economic sectors in the system of national accounts;

-draft methodological materials and introduce relevant amendments changes into the methodology for defining and estimating the selected statistical indicators under study.

Figure 1: PROBLEM TREE

4. OBJECTIVES

LAN

The present project is meant to contribute to the overall long-term objective, which is to deliver appropriate data to economic and social agents within the country and to the international organisations.

Within this overall mission the project should tackle specially the following medium-term objectives:

-Improvement of data quality and data comparability to put them at international level.

-Support to the PCA implementation, particularly in the aspects relating to harmonisation with international and Community methods, standards and classifications.

In this respect the overall objective of the project will be to develop unified methodology to build up a system of statistical indicators corresponding to international requirements and standards.

Within the general objective, specific goals and expected results have been identified for projects incorporated in the "Statistics-4" Programme:

-Enhancement of estimates within the system of national accounts and the development of correspondent methodological instructions and requirements

-Development of a classification of institutional units by economic sectors.

-Development of harmonised methodology for constructing accounts by economic sectors.

-Figure 2: TREE OF OBJECTIVES Figure 1: PROBLEM TREE

Figure 2: TREE OF OBJECTIVES

5. COORDINATION WITH OTHER DONORS

Other International donors are active in Russia.

For instance, the IMF has a resident adviser, specialising in Balance of payment data, external trade and financial statistics.

The OECD is active on Non Observed Economy.

The World Bank has signed a loan for 30 millions US $, over 5 years, and the first activities and tenders will be launched in late 2000-early 2001. Close co-ordination will be organised with the PIU (Project Implementation Unit), the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Some countries also have bi-lateral assistance, such as Sweden, through its SIDA aid agency. It is particularly active on regional statistics, specially in the north-western region of Russia ( Carelia and Saint-Petersburg regions), and also on gender statistics.

6. INTERVENTION LOGIC

6.1 Identification of priorities

It is clear that not all the problems the statistical system faces can be tackled within the framework of the present project. Priorities have been defined in consideration of the assistance provided by other donors. For each priority areacomponents have been drafted by the Goskomstat and are enclosed in the present project.

Among the general objectives for TACIS cooperation the priorities of the present programme are the following:

To support the PCA implementation

The PCA is an opportunity to increase the visibility of the Goskomstat. The Statistics 4 project is in line with the general requirement of the PCA to develop an efficient statistical system in Russia, able to provide users with timely, reliable and comparable data. It aims, in particular, at improving harmonisation of Russian statistics with international standards, methods and classifications. It should allow providing private and public economic operators with more relevant macro-economic data. Finally, it will held develop and widen the exchange of statistical information between EU and Russia.

To increase the user-orientation

It is the task of a national statistical system to make available to government, the public, and the private sector relevant and reliable statistical information for economic, social, cultural and environmental developments in the country. One of the aims of the Statistics 4 project is to better satisfy the needs of national and international users, by providing them with statistical indicators better adapted with their requirements and more easily comparable with other countries.

To improve data quality and comparability

From the beginning of Tacis statistical co-operation both Eurostat and the EU Technical Assistants have promoted the use of international and European standards, definitions, indicators and classifications. This assistance will be continued under the present project for developing comparable methodologies and concepts.The project should also allow improving the quality of data.

6.2 Project components

In compliance with the indicated aims, the following components are expected to be developed with the further completion of an itemised plan of actions that would enable to study issues under analysis and draft proposals for implementing results in statistical practice:

-Enhancing Estimates for the System of National Accounts (Project manager - I.D. Masakova).

-Development of the Classification of Institutional Units by Economic Sector (Project manager - A.L. Kevesh).

-Improvement of Information Basis for Constructing Economic Accounts for Agriculture in the Russian Federation. (Project manager - A.V. Yepikhina).

-Improvement of Finances Statistical Survey System to Construct SNA Indicators. (Project manager - I.P. Goryacheva).

-Development of Methodological Basis to Keep Satellite Accounts on Tourism in the Russian Federation. (Project manager - A.R. Ilyin).

-Compilation of Accounts on Labour and Making Estimations on their Basis of the Total Labour Costs by Economic Sectors, Labour Remuneration Costs Including Hidden Labour Remuneration. (Project manager - T.L. Gorbachyova).

-Enhancing methodology for Estimating Output and Intermediate Consumption Indicators by Trade Industries. (Project manager - E.I. Sedova).

-Enhancing the estimation of National Accounts by economic sector, at the regional level. (Project manager- A.L Kevesh)

7. ACTION PLAN

The ТАСIS "Statistics-4" Programme should cover various kinds of activities:

-Analysis of the methodology applied in Russian and European statistical practices;

-Developing a unified national system of indicators that are harmonised at the international and national levels and that enable the collection, processing and reporting of comparable statistical data;

-Preparing, planning and realising pilot surveys of enterprises and households on the selected topics;

-Procuring equipment for the Goskomstat departments according to the programme’s needs.

The Programme implementation should foresee five steps:

-Step One (initial step): the evaluation of state-of-the-art of the statistics methodological framework and an in-depth analysis of the current situation connected with SNA indicators;

-Step Two: study of foreign experiences in constructing statistical indicators and classifications, preparation of their outlines for further analysis and use in Russian statistical practice.

-Step Three: development - based on the awareness of the Goskomstat needs and based on both national and international experience as well as on recommendations provided by international organisations - of the national system of statistical indicators, classifications and methodologies.

-Step Four: implementing experimental works, preparation of the scheme for practical application of results and its expert evaluation.

-Step Five: practical application of developed methodologies, indicators

and classifications.

8. MEANS AND COSTS

8.1 Means

The resources available to the programme are the following:

  • CESD-Communautaire will provide a team of 1 assistant working full time in Moscow, to implement the project, two desk officers based in Luxembourg, and a part-time semi-resident adviser.
  • Eurostat shall supervise the technical coherence of the project.
  • Statisticians from the EU Member States will provide technical assistance.
  • The Goskomstat of Russia has nominated a project leader for each component

8.2 Costs

1 500 000 € have been earmarked for statistics in the 1998 national budget.

Necessary equipment as well as pilot surveys and publications will be funded by the project.

The indicative allocation of funds per component is mentioned in the part 9 of this document (logical frameworks).

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59. Logical Frameworks

Project title: Harmonisation of the Methodology for estimating statistical indicators pursuant to

international standards and methodologies

INTERVENTION LOGIC / OBJECTIVELY VERIFIABLE INDICATORS / SOURCES OF VERIFICATION / ASSUMPTIONS
OVERALL OBJECTIVES / To improve the harmonisation of methodologies of Russian statistical indicators with standards and methodologies used by international organisations.
PROJECT PURPOSE / To enhance the national system of statistical indicators harmonised with requirements set by international standards and methodologies, and improve estimates on the system of national accounts (SNA). / Correspondence tables with international standards / Final assessment of the results of the project
Recommendations for further developments / Integration of project results in Goskomstat strategic plan and day to day practise
PROJECT RESULTS * / Estimates for the system of National Accounts will have been enhanced.
Recommendations will have been made and pilot experiences will have been carried out to improve statistical observation in various sectors:
- A methodology for constructing economic accounts for agriculture will have been developed
- The Finance statistical survey system to construct SNA indicators will have been improved
- The data collection system on tourism activity will have been reorganised
- Methodology for estimating output and intermediate consumption indicators by trade industries will have been upgraded
- Methods and practical measures to compile labour accounts and to estimate labour costs by economic sector will have been defined
- The classification of institutional units by economic sector will have been developed / List of statistical indicators
Results of pilot surveys
Methodological handbook / Project reports and all documents presenting the results / Good coordination between Goskomstat and EU members and international statistical organisations
Regular feedback from the users
Adoption of the new classifications proposed
PROJECT ACTIVITIES / Technical assistance (consultations, study visit) to study and make use of EU partners’ experience
Provision of equipment and software developments
Working-out by Russian experts of methodological and technical recommendations
Pilot experiences
Working seminars
Assessment of results of pilot experiences, proposals for solutions to be extended to more statistical topics
Coordination meetings to follow up the project implementation / Means:
Expertise from EU countries:
Contractor’s human resources
Eurostat technical supervision / Cost:
Project implementation 790 000 €
Of which:
Actions 730 000
Equipment 60 000 € / Staff availability and continuity
Adequate supply of expertise

Component 1.Enhancing Estimates for the System of National Accounts