Correlating Drought and Land Use Conflicts in Sudan

Correlating Drought and Land Use Conflicts in Sudan

Exercise Summary & Answer Guide to Worksheets

In 2003, a conflict arose in the western region of Sudan between armed Arab camel-herding nomads called the Janjaweed, joined with the Sudanese military against non-Arab farmers and rebels from the Fur, Zaghawa, and Massaleit ethnic groups. The death toll from this conflict ranges from 200,000 to nearly 500,000, with estimates of over 2.5 million displaced. In the U.S. these deaths were initially called genocide, but since a 2005 United Nations (UN) Security Council investigation found no conclusive proof of deliberate intent to commit genocide, the UN discourages the use of the term in describing this major humanitarian crisis.

Although the conflict is militant, the likely cause of the crisis—and the focus of this learning unit—is the conflict between farmers needing water for their crops and nomads needing water for their cattle during droughts that some say may signal the onset of regional desertification. One way scientists monitor changes in vegetation with remote sensing is by using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to analyzing the near infrared radiation reflected by photosynthesizing plants. Plants under stress, for example because of drought conditions, will produce less chlorophyll through photosynthesis and, thus, reflect less near-infrared radiation, which results in a lower NDVI value. NDVI, therefore, provides an effective means of examining the extent of the drought in Darfur. The time of the conflict as studied in this learning unit was when Sudan was one large country. Today, Sudan is split into two nations along ethnic, language and religious lines. This presents an opportunity for discussion of civil war and cultural vs. political boundaries.

Monitoring regional water shortages, droughts, and desertification with geospatial technology can better prepare international and national organizations for potential geopolitical conflicts. It has been suggested that the recent conflicts in Darfur, Sudan, originated because of regional water shortages and that the droughts may have been caused by the onset of desertification. Is it possible to use remote sensing and GIS to determine if the water shortage in Darfur was short term or part of long term desertification? Using Darfur as a case study, the bigger concern is whether conflicts of war become more prevalent as natural resources, food, and water become scarce in places that are experiencing both population growth and desertification. In populated regions which may be experiencing desertification, it is vital for governmental agencies, NGOs, and scientists to spatially and historically analyze – through the use of remote sensing and GIS – devastating regional droughts in order to anticipate the human consequences that can follow from long-term water shortages.

Developed by the Integrated Geospatial Education and Technology Training (iGETT) project, with funding from the National Science Foundation (DUE-0703185) to the National Council for Geographic Education. Opinions expressed are those of the author and are not endorsed by NSF. Available for educational use only. See http://igett.delmar.edu for additional remote sensing exercises and other instructional materials. Created 2008; modified April 2011 and January 2012.

What makes geography such a powerful discipline is its unique ability to analyze physical processes and human behaviors in order to understand the human-environment condition. The geographic method uses a process similar to that of the scientific method to acquire spatial knowledge about an area of interest. Instructors can use this method as a road map to help students understand the process of geographic inquiry.

Topic

Natural Hazards and Disasters; Agriculture

Level

Introductory. Lower College (13 and 14) and Secondary (9 – 12 year)

Student Handout and Data

To access the Student Handout and Student Assignment Worksheets for this exercise click here. (Word / Pdf)

Data:

·  MODIS imagery will be imported as part of the exercise, using MODIS Import tool for ArcGIS10 requires an Internet connection.

·  The following shapefiles or geodatabases of western Sudan can be obtained from Esri’s ArcGIS online, which requires an Internet connection. You should check to see how this process runs in the lab, to be sure it will be fast enough for the students. Alternatively, the Esri Data & Maps package, which comes with ArcGIS, can be installed in a local directory for students to access the following features:

–  Major cities

–  Major rivers

–  Countries (Africa)

–  Satellite/Raster image (for background)

·  Optional:

MODIS Reprojection Tool – Not required for this exercise. Use only if you want to have students download MODIS imagery from GloVis and then bring it into ArcGIS10 or other software. The exercise has students go to the GloVis site to view imagery, but does not require them to download. If you do have students download, be sure to test the tool yourself first. It can be problematic to get it running properly and may take some time to troubleshoot.

Learning Objectives

By the end of this learning unit, students should be able to:

•  Define remote sensing and explain how NDVI analysis is used.

•  Explain the geographic method and its similarities to and differences from the scientific method.

•  Understand the causes of drought and desertification, specifically in Darfur, Sudan.

•  Import into ArcGIS specific MODIS data imagery from the United States Geologic Survey (USGS), using the MODIS Tool for ArcGIS 10. Explore monthly NDVI data for 2008 in the Darfur region to determine the wet and dry seasons for the region.

•  Visually analyze NDVI values for the wet month –September – in the Darfur region from 2000 to 2008 to determine if the conflict’s high death tolls occurred during a dry period for the region, as many suggest.

•  Create a project in ArcGIS showing the NDVI values for the region.

•  Create Map Layouts in ArcGIS to display low and high NDVI for September between 2000 and 2008 and also the monthly low and high NDVI for the year 2008.

•  Correlate the relationship between precipitation patterns and NDVI values based on the GIS.

•  Explain how water shortages may have influenced and perhaps initiated the 2003 conflict in Darfur.

•  Analyze before and after satellite imagery, on the “Eyes on Darfur” website, to observe the actual destruction of villages caused by the invasion of the Janjaweed nomad militias into the non-Arab farmlands.

Class Time Required/Lesson Sequence

The exercise consists of eight Parts. Parts 1, 2 and 8 can be completed at home using the Internet. The in-class portion of the assignment will take 5-6 hours for the entire learning unit or 3-4 hours for the condensed version. As always, it depends on your students!

Lesson Sequence:

Step 1: Introduction to MODIS Imagery and NDVI Analysis

If this is the first time students have been introduced to remote sensing, spend some time talking about the following concepts:

·  What is remote sensing?

·  What are the various types of active and passive remote sensing?

·  Briefly introduce students to NASA’s Earth Observatory System and MODIS.

http://eospso.gsfc.nasa.gov

http://modis.gsfc.nasa.gov/

NOTE: MODIS imagery was chosen for this learning unit because its imagery covers a vast area. This allows for seeing the larger picture of water shortages for the region.

·  Supplemental readings should include:

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/RemoteSensing/printall.php

Step 2: Understanding Drought and Desertification using NDVI Analysis

·  Discuss with the students the geographic method and how it is similar and different from the scientific method. Have students discuss the following and consider what they mean:

–  Ask geographic questions

–  Acquire geographic resources

–  Explore geographic data

–  Analyze geographic information

–  Act upon geographic knowledge

http://www.esri.com/industries/k-12/pdfs/geoginquiry.pdf

·  Discuss with students what droughts are and how they differ from desertification.

·  Discuss how climatic changes can be monitored using remote sensing and NDVI values.

·  Supplemental readings should include:

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/Desertification/

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/DroughtFacts/

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/MeasuringVegetation/

·  Students should read the supplemental material before the class discussion. Have students answer the relevant questions in Worksheet 1, provided in the Student Handout. (Answers are at the end of this Instructor Guide.)

Step 3: OPTIONAL: Downloading MODIS NDVI imagery from GloVis and using Reprojection tool

·  If you choose to have students download MODIS data from GloVis, plan for an entire class period. It will require students to create a USGS account, and it may take a day or two to receive the imagery.

·  Once the data have been downloaded to your local server, you have the option of using the raw data, which will require reprojection with the MODIS Reprojection Tool, or you can use the data already projected. Both can be found in the data for this learning unit.

·  Once the data have been downloaded and reprojected, have students open up ArcGIS 10 and begin the NDVI analysis on page 5 of the Student Handout.

·  Another option is to show students how to download one MODIS image or Landsat imagery from GloVis and download the rest of the data from this learning unit to your local server.

http://glovis.usgs.gov/

Step 4: NDVI Analysis for Western Sudan January-December 2008

·  The goal of this section is to have students analyze the yearly migration of NDVI values. In this region of the world, seasons are based more on wet and dry conditions rather than on temperature variations. NDVI values are determined by the infrared radiation emitted by photosynthesizing plants. The assumption is that NDVI values are highest when precipitation begins after a dry period, thus increasing photosynthesis. Students will find that the NDVI values are highest in September.

·  Throughout this section, students will need to answer the relevant questions in Worksheet 1.

Step 5: NDVI Analysis for Western Sudan from 2000-2008

·  The steps here are nearly identical to Step 3 above. Students will complete a similar process as before, but rather than analyze monthly NDVI values, they will analyze NDVI values for September from 2000 to 2008.

·  Throughout this section, students will need to complete answers in Worksheet 1.

Step 6: Loading MODIS NDVI Imagery into ArcGIS

·  Students will now begin the process of creating two maps that will show the high and low NDVI values along with precipitation patterns from the USGS.

·  The first map will contain two NDVI images for April 2008 and September 2008, since those are the peaks and troughs for NDVI in the region. The map will also contain two .jpg images from the USGS showing precipitation patterns. Students will add shapefiles from ArcGIS along with the Excel graph they created.

·  The second map will be identical to the first map, except that it will be for September 2002 and September 2007. The thumbnail image at the top of this guide is an example of what the first map should look like (March and August 2008). The second map should look identical except that it will focus on August 2002 and August 2007.

Step 7: Analyzing the Darfur Conflict

·  The point of this section is to allow students to see the actual effects of the conflict from a spatial perspective, with satellite imagery used by a nonprofit organization called Eyes on Darfur, a partnership with the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) project called Save Darfur and the remote sensing company, Digital Globe. http://www.eyesondarfur.org/

·  Students will read about the crisis and the international response.

·  This portion of the activity can be done in a computer lab or at home using the Internet.

Step7: Reflection on the Geographic Method

The final portion of the learning unit has students reflecting on the geographic method. Worksheet 2 asks them to answer the following questions:

–  What was the geographic question for this assignment?

–  What geographic resources did you acquire to complete this assignment?

–  In what ways did you explore the geographic data?

–  What information did you acquire by analyzing the data?

–  How can what you learned be applied at local, regional, and global levels?

Software Required

This exercise requires the use of Excel (Office 2010) and Esri ArcGIS 10.0 (or higher) with a minimum of service pack 2 installed.

Prerequisite Skills

The exercise is intended for students with a beginning to intermediate background in GIS and remote sensing. It may also be used in other courses such as physical geography, human geography, world regional geography, or meteorology to study the potential impacts of water shortages around the world. Be prepared for more questions and for the process to be slower for those with little to no GIS experience or no experience with ArcGIS 10.

NOTE: If the context for this exercise is a GIS or remote sensing course, it will be very useful for students to learn how to import the MODIS imagery and set up the data frames and map layouts. If it is a non-GIS or remote sensing course (i.e. physical geography, human geography, etc.) it is highly recommended that you download and import the MODIS imagery into an ArcGIS project beforehand. Then have students explore the data, rather than create new data frames and map layouts

Student Outcomes

·  Develop critical thinking skills by determining, accessing and downloading required data and other background information and presenting it appropriately

·  Demonstrate skills in using basic to advanced techniques related to professional grade GIS software (specifically ArcGIS 10)

·  Demonstrate skills in presenting and analyzing spatial data

·  Demonstrate skills in basic remote sensing interpretation image analysis

·  Demonstrate skills in integrating data from different sources, i.e., remote sensing data, field data and photos, and other data as needed and available (text, maps, etc.)

·  Optional: GPS data acquisition, processing, and inclusion in final map analysis as part of field verification

Evaluation & Deliverables

Students will be required to turn in the following:

·  Two ArcGIS maps that contain all the information requested.

·  Two Student Worksheets

Correlation to the National Geography Standards

This exercise addresses the following six essential elements of the National Geography Standards: