ABSTRACT SUBMISSION FOR:
13th ICCRTS
“C2 for Complex Endeavors”
TITLE: Situation Analysis and Collaborative Planning for Complex Operations
Topics: Topic 3-Modeling and Simulation; Topic 4-Cognitive and Social Issues; Topic 9-Collaborative Technologies for Network-Centric Operations
Point of Contact: Ed Waltz
Chief Scientist, Intelligence Innovation Division
BAE Systems Network Systems
4301 N. Fairfax Drive, Arlington VA 22203
703-622-4385
(There may be additional co-authors in the final submission)
ABSTRACT: Complex operations involve large-scale systems of systems that include non-physical systems (e.g. political and, social networks, economies, information flows) intertwined with physical systems (e.g. infrastructures, military systems, etc.) that are adaptive and exhibit emergent behavior. Planning for such systems requires adaptive and robust approaches that are based in a comprehensive study of both the structure and the dynamics of these systems. This paper describes analysis and planning tools developed and evaluated in the DARPA-JFCOM Complex Operations Modeling, Planning and Options Exploration (COMPOEX) Program for complex operations. The tools enable systems of systems analysts to compose conceptual, then computational models of region and nation-level situations to explore the behavior of their systems. A flexible simulation architecture allows agent-based models, systems dynamics models, Bayesian networks, linear program models, and other discrete-time models to be composed into a integrated political-military-economic-social-infrastructure and information (PMESII) simulation. The paper describes the concept of operations, the analysis and planning tools, and provides the results of formal experiments conducted by JFCOM with operational interagency teams on planning exercises using Baghdad and Afghanistan PMESII models across a range of lines of effort. (183 words)
The full paper will be submitted to DARPA on 25 October for a 30-day review to receive “Approved for Public Release – Distribution Unlimited” approval. This will provide sufficient margin to achieve the formal draft paper deadline of 6 January 2008.COMPOEX Tool Suite enables Interagency Teams to collaboratively Envision complex situations, Create campaign plans and Assess the expected effects of those plans
PAPER OUTLINE:
1. Complex Operations Planning
a. Introduction to the planning needs for PMESII systems of systems
b. Complexity characteristics of such systems
c. Implications for situation assessment and robust, adaptive planning
2. COMPOEX Approach
a. Explicit modeling of PMESII systems – a step beyond network assessment and databasing of network properties
b. Composition of multiple models in a common framework
c. Exploratory analysis of system of system dynamics, and the representation of effects
d. Focusing assessment (Intelligence and SOSA) and planning (operations) on a common model to achieve intelligence-ops collaboration
3. Concept of Operations
a. CONOPS illustrated by tool workflow using Afghanistan data example:
i. Data acquisition and conceptual modeling of systems
ii. Translation of conceptual models to computational models
iii. Composition of models into an integrated computational model
iv. Behavior analysis, validation and baseline situation assessment
v. Planning options exploration
vi. Collaborative planning across multiple Lies of Effort(LOE) and integration into a campaign plan
b. Results of COMPOEX testing with Baghdad and Afghanistan experiments at JFCOM
4. Conclusions and Next Steps
a. The benefits of collaborative planning with comprehensive dynamic models
b. The practical issues involved in modeling PMESII systems
c. Approaches for transition, training and transformation of the approach to planning