1Upgrading and Modernizing Rail Service

1.1Introduction

Both freight and passenger rail service in Pakistan have seen a considerable decline in market share since 1960. A lack of investment, mis-management, large budget deficitsand poor service reliability has lead to shares declining from 96% of freight traffic in 1960 to about 0.9% in 2013-2014. Currently many locomotives require repair or replacement and many are not in operating condition. The state owned railway company has also been on the verge of bankruptcy in recent years and has suffered a series of corruption scandals.

At the end of 2013-2014 fiscal year Pakistan Railways had a total of 11,778 track kilometres (Pakistan Railways, 2014). Approximately 1,409 kilometers was double lined track and 544 kilometres was electrified. Total passenger kilometres was 19.8 billion km and total freight tonne kilometres was 1,090. While passenger kilometres is similar to levels in the year 2000 freight traffic is drastically lower. Figure 1 presents the change in passenger and freight rail service between 1990 and 2014.

Figure 1: Passenger and Freight Rail Service between 1990 and 2014

There has been much discussion regarding reviving rail in Pakistan, but actions to date have been limited. The Government of Pakistan’s Vision 2025 communication (GoP, 2014a) proposes to increase the share of in-land freight traffic from the present railways in national freight from present levels of 1% to 20% by 2025[1]. Freight turn-around times would also be drastically reduced to increase productivity. An increased share of freight and passenger would be achieved through major upgrades to the railway system that include increasing speeds to 120/140 km/h, doubling tracks on main lines, increasing line capacity with modern signalling and developing a separate freight corridor. New linkages would also be developed for North-South and East-West corridors and to Central Asian States, China and other neighbouring countries.

Total emissions in 2013 from rail transport were 275 GgCO2e. It is estimated that currently almost 90% of these emissions are from passenger transport. Average emissions are estimated at 13 gCO2e per passenger km travelled and 21 g/CO2e per freight km travelled[2]

1.2Mitigation Scenario

The Vision 2025 target of freight rail modal share of 20% is extremely aggressive, essentially looking to grow freight capacity by more than 10 times in 10 years (>25% growth per year). Given the most recent data available it is very unlikely that the government of Pakistan can achieve the target and as such it is not a reasonable objective for establishing an INDC.

A more realistic opportunity may be to simply restore and stabilize peak historical service (approximately 6.2 billion tonnes km) market share by 2020 and then double this share by 2025 and double it again by 2030 to reach approximately 25 billion tonnes km in 2030). These efforts if they can be achieved would increase the modal share for rail freight to 9% based on the growth expectations for in-land freight traffic.

A similar trajectory for passenger rail service, stabilizing at 25 billion passenger kilometers by 2020, doubling this share by 2025 and again by 2030 to reach approximately 100 billion passenger kilometers by 2030. Similarly if these efforts could be achieved the modal share for passenger traffic would increase to 9% based on growth expectations for passenger traffic.

Interventions that have been considered by Railway Pakistanto upgrade and modernize passenger and freight rail service include:

  • Dual tracks for major inter-city traffic and on main line sections
  • Upgrading select lines to from narrow gauge to standard gauge rail
  • New international linesincluding with China
  • Increase in the average trains speeds from 70 km/h passenger to 120-140 km/h
  • Increasing the average freight train speeds from 42 km/h to 100 km/h.
  • Induction of new flat-bed container wagons and high speed locomotives and passenger coaches in the railway fleet.
  • Decreasing interruptions in service
  • Improvement in the signalling system
  • Improved management and modernization of operations focusing on maximizing service delivery. This likely requires institutional restructuring and may include further unbundling of passenger operations and freight services (Different business units are now in place but Pakistan Railway continues to be vertically integrated organization)
  • Modernization of rail stock
  • New freight terminals
  • Electrification of some tracks
  • High speed rail lines (e.g., bullet train Pakistan)

All of these interventions and associated investments should be considered as part of this mitigation option. Implementation of a few of these interventions has started, but overall the interventions need to be accelerated in order to have significant impact on freight and passenger market share and to achieve significant emission reductions over the next 15 years.

The main risk to implementation is that Pakistan Railway will not be able to improve operational efficiency to become profitable in the shorter term. This risk makes it difficult to both attract large scale capital investments that are desperately needed, as well as attract new freight and passenger customers who are not satisfied with the reliability and value of service. The risk can be mediated by ensuring that there are significant institutional and management reforms. Ultimately, Pakistan Railway has to transformand provide reliable, safe, convenient and cost-effectiveservice to win back customers and regain market share.

The cost of implementation is estimated based only on additional capital costs to upgrade and modernize the Pakistan Railway System until 2020. After 2020 it is assumed that the Pakistan Railway would achieve profitability and could finance future expansions from revenue streams.

Intervention / Capital Costs (billions Rs)
Upgrades to existing track / 100
Construction of new lines including dual tracks / 144
Modernization of rolling stock and locomotives / 108
TOTAL / 352

Emission reductions from implementation of the mitigation option are expected to rise to nearly 4,000 GgCO2e/yr by 2030. Shifting passengers to rail could reduce emissions from business as usual by as much as 1,600 GgCO2e per year. Modal shifts in freight would deliver even greater benefits and could reduce emission by as much as 2,400 GgCO2e per year. The abatement potential relative to all transport sector emissions is shown in Figure 3.

Figure 2: Mitigation Wedge for Upgrading and Modernizing Rail Service in Pakistan (MtCO2e)

The average cost of abatement of greenhouse gas emissions is estimated for this option to be

15,000 Rs/tCO2e reduced.

There are numerous co-benefits to upgrading and modernizing rail service in Pakistan.

  • Congestion – Congestion in urban centres can be reduced by moving commuters and inter-city passengers to rail service and removing trucks from roadways. Reliable and efficient service will encourage passengers to switch to rail and shippers to use rail freight. Substantial time savings compared to driving can also be realized.
  • Air quality – Road transport is a major and growing source of air pollution in urban areas. Air pollution in Pakistan urban centres is very poor and much higher than global standards. Most of the air pollution can be attributed to vehicular exhaust. Reducing both freight and passenger vehicle use in these centres can improve air quality.
  • Road quality – Removing freight vehicles from roadways can also extend the life expectancy of the roads in Pakistan. Damage to roadways caused by overloaded trucks in Pakistan has substantial repair costs.

2Compressed Natural Gas for Vehicles

Pakistan has the second largest fleet in the world of natural gas vehicles (estimated at 2.85 million in 2011).

In 2012, the Pakistani government took the decision to gradually phase out CNG sector altogether beginning by banning any new conversions to CNG and banning the manufacturing of new NGV's. In addition the government plans to close down all refueling stations in the next 3 years.

“The government has been left with little choice but to put a lid on it because there simply isn't much gas left," said FarrukhSaleem, an economist. "It has been a massive policy failure because the government actively promoted CNG knowing full well that natural gas reserves would not last beyond 25 years."

3Energy Efficient Public Transit Systems

3.1Introduction

Pakistan has made little investment in public transportation over the past decades, with the exception of recent investments in a few Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) projects. In general the response to increased traffic congestion has been to construct more roads. As a result the informal transport sector (minibuses, motor rickshaws) and private cars provides almost all of the passenger trips in Pakistan. Permitted private bus operators also service a small segment of passenger trips.

In 2013, a Rs. 30.0 billion BRT system was opened in Lahore. The 27 kilometre system currently carries 140,000 passengers daily. In 2015, a Rs. 44.8billionBRT system was opened between Rawalpindi and Islamabad. The 23 km system is projected to carry an estimated 135,000 passengers. Both BRT systems employ air-conditioned buses on dedicated lanes with exclusive signal-free lanes.

However, other major urban areas including Karachi do not have any type of major public transportation systems. Many feasibility studies, implementation plans and designs have been drawn up for LRT and BRT systems since the 1990s in Karachi but public sector funding has only recently been committed by the Government of Pakistan. The proposed full system length is 109 kilometres.

3.2Mitigation Scenario

It is uncertain whether the Karachi BRT system will be implemented without international sources of financing such as climate financing. Based on the BRT system in Lahore and Rawalpindi and Islamabad, a 109 km system might cost as much as Rs. 120 billion, although, simar BRT systems developed in India would have a capital cost estimate closer to Rs. 90 billion based on network size and passengers carried.

The energy efficient public transit systems option considers the addition of 300 km of BRT lines in major urban centres in Pakistan by 2030. This is approximately double the size of the existing Lahore, Rawalpindi and Islamabad systems and proposed Karachi system combined together. Light Rail Rapid Transit (LRT) systems could also be considered as an alternative system for mass transit. This level of deployment would increase the modal share of mass transit from to approximately 0.2% today to 1.6% by 2030.

The main barrier to implementation is the large investment cost. Large cities in Pakistan also have limited urban planning capacities and siting of BRT systems that are convenient for users but not unreasonably expensive or disruptive to other city functions is difficult. The risk could be mediated by accessing climate finance funds for capital expenditures.

The cost of implementation is estimated based only on additional capital costs for 300 km of BRT lines. The cost based on existing BRT systems in Pakistan is Rs. 330 billion.

Emission reductions from implementation of the mitigation option are expected to rise to 282 GgCO2e/yr by 2030. The abatement potential relative to all transport sector emissions is shown in Figure 3.

Figure 3: Mitigation Wedge for Energy Efficient Public Transit Systems (MtCO2e)

The average cost of abatement of greenhouse gas emissions is estimated for this option to be

149,000 Rs/tCO2e reduced.

There are numerous co-benefits to energy efficient urban transit systems.

  • Congestion – Congestion in urban centres can be reduced by moving commuters from personal passenger vehicles and inefficient informal transit vehicles to BRT. Reliable and efficient service will encourage passengers to switch to BRTt. Decreased commute times also contributes financial benefits associated with the time saved
  • Air quality – Road transport is a major and growing source of air pollution in urban areas. Air pollution in Pakistan urban centres is very poor and much higher than global standards. Most of the air pollution can be attributed to vehicular exhaust. BRT systems have much lower emissions than the passenger vehicles that are displaced, thereby reducing overall emissions and improving air quality.
  • Safety – Riders enjoy greater safety in well maintained, un-crowded BRT systems that have dedicated lanes for travel.
  • Social Economic Benefits – Affordable high-quality mass rapid transit has the potential to help improve social equality and reduce poverty if fares are affordable.
  • Energy Security – Reduced overall demand for fuel can reduce energy imports and increase national energy security.

4References

Government of Pakistan (2014a). Pakistan2025. One Nation – One Vision.Planning Commission.Minisstyro of Planning, Development and Reform.

Pakistan Railways (2014). Principal Statistics. Accessed on June 29, 2015 at:

World Bank (2013b). Greening Growth in Pakistan through Transport Sector Reforms. A strategic environmental, poverty and social assessment. Ernesto Sánchez-Triana, JavaidAfzal, Dan Biller, and SohailMalik.

USAID (2010). Urban Transportation Policy for Karachi & Other Pakistani Cities.Shabbar, A. M., Uddin, W., Imran, M. August 20, 2010.

[1] Note that Vision 2025 reports current rail freight traffic share as 6.1 billion tonne km or 4.4%, but in the past years that has fallen to 1.1 billion tonne km or approximately 0.9%.

[2] Emission factors are from modelling of fuel consumption and service delivery. Values are consistent with freight emission factors published in (World Bank, 2013).