Wadi Environmental Science Centre
DEMENA Youth Climate Ambassadors
Presenting Egypt's Case
Table of Contents
1. Setting a background for Egypt
2. Sea Level rise
3. Climate change and Food Security
4. Water Resources Agriculture and land usage
5. Ecosystems Imbalance
6. Effects of Climate Change on Public Health
7. Air Quality in Cairo
8. Energy and transportation
9. Policies, regulations & Awareness campaigns
Setting a background for Egypt
Egypt is located in the north-eastern corner of theAfrican continent with an area about 1 million square kilometers. It is considered a developingcountry burdened by the scarcity of natural resources associated with extreme population growth (over 80 million people in total).
The coastalzone of Egypt extends for more than 3,500 kmand 40% of the population live there. Most ofthese people live in and around a number ofmajor industrial and commercial cities:Alexandria, Port Said, Damietta, Rosetta, andSuez (El-Raey, 1999). Furthermore, the Nile deltacovers the area from Cairo to the shoreline of theMediterranean Sea, between the cities ofDamietta in the east and Rashid in the west. Hotdry summers and mild winters prevail withrelatively low, irregular, and unpredictable rainfall
The inhabited area of the country constitutes only4% of the total area of the country which isconfined to the narrow strip of the Nile valley,from Aswan in the south to Cairo in the north. Itsonly source of water -the River Nile- providesmore than 95% of all water available to thecountry.
The Nile delta isone of the oldest intensely cultivated areas onearth. It is very densely inhabited, with populationdensities up to 1,600 inhabitants per squarekilometre; only (2.5%) of Egypt's land area, theNile delta and the Nile valley, is suitable forintensive agriculture. Most of the 50 km wide landstrip along the coast is less than 2 m above sea-level and is protected from flooding by a 1 to10 km wide coastal sand belt only, shaped by discharge of the Rosetta and Damiettabranches of the Nile.
This protective sand belt is facing rapid erosion, which has been a serious problem since the construction of the Aswan dam. Rising sea level is expected to destroy weak partsof the sand belt, which is essential for the protection of lakes and the low-lying reclaimedlands. The impacts will be very serious as one third of Egypt's fish catches are made in theselakes. SLR will change the water quality and affect most fresh water fish, flood valuableagricultural land, and salinate essential groundwater resources. Egypt ispotentially one of the countries most at risk from the effects of SLR, as will be discussed.
Climate Change: Impacts of sea level rise in Egypt
Sea level changes are caused by several natural phenomenon; the three primary contributing ones are:
1. Ocean thermal expansion
2. Glacial melt from Greenland and Antarctica - in addition to a smaller contribution from other ice sheets-
3. Change in terrestrial storage.
It is predicted that, with global warming, global average sea levels may rise by between 7 and 36 cm by the 2050s, by between 9 and 69 cm by the 2080s and 30–80 cm by 2100. The majority of this change will occur due to the expansion of the warmer ocean water (Roaf, et al., 2005). Since the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets contain enough water to raise the sea level by almost 70 m, people will be directly affected by rising sea levels in several ways.
As seas rise many areas of the coasts will be submerged, with increasingly severe and frequent storms and wave damage, shoreline retreat will be accelerated. In addition to expected disastrous flooding events caused by severe climate events such as heavy flooding, high tides, windstorms in combination with higher seas (Dasgupta, et al., 2007).
Developing countries are certainly identified mainly at risk. The consequences of SLR for population location and infrastructure planning in developing countries should definitely be reviewed by the developing world.
The research aims to discuss the dilemma which may arise in Egypt with the diverse effects of SLR; environmentally and socio-economically. It will examine a number of environmental features affected; water resources and coastal zones. As well as highlighting the socioeconomic dimensions influenced; population, agriculture, urban areas and gross domestic product (GDP).
Since it is necessary to have an in-depth understanding of vulnerability for decision-making with regard to adaptation, we consider the results of vulnerability assessments in 2 case studies.
Vulnerability of developing countries to climate change
Vulnerability to climate change is considered to be high in developing countries due to social, economic, and environmental conditions that amplify susceptibility to negative impacts and contribute to low capacity to cope with and adapt to climate hazards. Moreover, projected impacts of climate change generally are more adverse for lower latitudes, where most developing countries are located, than for higher latitudes. Because of the high level of vulnerability, there is an urgent need in the developing world to understand the threats from climate change, formulate policies that will lessen the risks and to take action.
First: Environmental aspects affected by SLR
Water resources
Egypt is one of the African countries thathas proved vulnerable to water stresscaused by climate change. The waterused in 2000 was estimated at about 70km3 which is already far greater than the available resources.
Both water supply and demand areexpected to be affected by climate changeand SLR. A combination of salt waterintrusion due to SLR and increased soilsalinity due to increased evaporation areexpected to reduce the quality of shallow groundwater supplies in the coastal areas. Rainfallmeasurements in coastal areas are unpredictable and it is difficult to expect whether rainfallis increasing or decreasing. The demand for water in Egypt is dominated by three major usergroups: agricultural irrigation, domestic use, and industry. The agricultural sector consumesabout 85% of the annual total water resource. It is therefore likely that any effects of climatechange on water supply and demand will be dwarfed by a much larger increase in demanddue to population growth.
One of the most outstanding impacts of SLR on the water resources is that it will increase theoccurrence of saline intrusion with contamination of groundwater resources in the coastalzone. The eastern part of Lake Manzala appears to subside at a rate of 4.5 mm yr–1,faster than any other region along the Nile delta coast. SLR is expectedto cause a landward shift of the salt wedge and to increase the rate of saline seepage to thetopsoil of the delta. This may have a serious impact on agriculture and drainage conditions,and potentially on available groundwater resources in the upper Nile delta. In addition, thesalinity in Lake Manzala may increase because of the stronger influence of tidal flowspenetrating the lake. Changes in the salinity conditions of the lake may affect its ecology andfisheries and the accelerated SLR will enhance the increase in salinity.
As for the Nile Basin, it was found that there is no clear indication of how the Nile river flowwill be affected by SLR, due to uncertainty in projected rainfall patterns in the basin and theinfluence of complex water management and water governance structures.
Coastal Zones
Egypt's coastal zones constitute particularly important regions economically, industrially,socially and culturally. In addition to increased tourism activities, a tremendous move towardsbuilding new industrial complexes has always been in progress, particularly in the coastalzones.
The coastal zones of Egypt extend for over 3500 km in length along both, theMediterranean Sea and Red Sea coasts. The Mediterranean shoreline is most vulnerable toSLR due to its relatively low elevation. The coastal zone of Egypt is therefore particularlyvulnerable to the impact of SLR, salt water intrusion, the deterioration of coastal tourism andthe impact of extreme dust storms. This in turn will directly affect the agricultural productivityand human settlements in coastal zones.
During the last decades, after the construction of the High Aswan dam,sediment input in the delta has been strongly reduced. This resulted in serious shore erosionand salt-water intrusion which changed the delta from river- to wave-dominated. Currently, the Nile delta experiences erosion waves driven bythe currents of the east Mediterranean gyre that sweep across the shallow shelf with speedsup to 1 m/s., Moreover, the construction of human-made waterways for irrigation andtransportation has trapped an already depleted sediment supply to the Nile delta. Thisentrapment of sediment is a key contributor to coastal erosion and land loss occurring in theNile delta and the Nile’s two projections, Rosetta and Damietta.
At present, erosion is a significant environmental problem affecting Damietta city’s coastalzone, which has retreated more than 500m in over 10 years. Erosion along the tip of the Damietta projection has adversely affected homes to the east atRas El Bar. However, a number of protective structures have been constructed along thisprojection to reduce shoaling in the river entrance. Continuous SLR is expected to enhancerates of erosion of the northern coast and Nile delta.
Second: Socio-economic effects of SLR
The coastal zone of Egypt suffers from a number of serious problems, including rapiddemographic growth, land subsidence, excessive erosion rates, water logging, soil salination,land use interference ecosystem pollution and degradation, and lack of appropriateinstitutional management systems. In turn, this will affect the managementand access to archaeological sites; reduce tourism, and result in socio-economic impacts onthe inhabitants of these areas.
Population
Egyptian coastal population are undeniably exposed to the effects of SLR, with itsaccompanying flooding as the population is expected to double before the year 2050, if thepresent growth rate is maintained. SLR is expected to affect Egypt in many ways; with just aone-meter rise in the Mediterranean Sea, the Nile delta stands to suffer tremendously; 6.1million people are predicted to be displaced and 4,500 square kilometres of cropland will belost. A correspondingly rapid growth in agricultural and industrialoutput will be required to sustain this population. Loss of beaches will reduce the number oftourists in coastal areas, forcing tourism dependent individuals and communities to abandontheir settlements and look for jobs elsewhere. This may probably lead to increasedunemployment inducing political and civil unrest. Moreover, increased water logging andsalinity may catalyse insect and pest problems causing health problems.
Reducing vulnerability to such threats is a major challenge to sustainable development andland use strategies. Coastal defence engineering is costly, while managed coastal retreatimplies sacrificing private property and usable natural resources.
It was noted in the world bank report that Egypt’s populationwould be most severely impacted by SLR within the Middle East and North Africa region.With a 1m SLR, approximately 10% of Egypt’s population would be impacted. Most of thisimpact takes place in the Nile delta which will have 20% of it affected with a 5m SLR
Agriculture and food resources
Expected climatic change, population increase, urbanization and industrialdevelopment as well as irrigation intensification constantly increase water demand and canintensify the vulnerability of agriculture in Egypt. Also, the increase oftemperature and frequency of extreme events will reduce crop yield as well as causingchanges in the agricultural distribution of crops. Furthermore, it will negatively affect marginalland and force farmers to abandon them increasing desertification and unemploymentassociated with loss of income consequently political unrest
Urban areas
As for the urban areas affected; Egypt is ranked the fifth in the world concerning the biggest impact of SLR on the total urban areas,scientists predict the Mediterranean will rise by a range of 30 centimetres to onemeter by the end of the century but still a one-meter rise in the level will possibly submergeAlexandria. This highlights the potentially deadly exposure of itsinhabitants, since storm water drainage infrastructure is often outdated and inadequate insuch low-income urban centres. The risks may be particularly severe in poor neighbourhoodsand slums, where infrastructure is often nonexistent or poorly designed and ill-maintained. Generally, fundamental and low-lying installations in Alexandria andPort Said are threatened by SLR and the recreational tourism beach facilities areendangered of partial and even full loss.
Vulnerability assessment of Alexandria Governorate
Alexandria is the second largest city in Egypt. It has the largest harbor in the country, and about 40% of Egypt’s industrial activities are based there. Its waterfront beach is located along the northwestern border of the Nile Delta coast. It extends for over 63 km and is considered the principal seaside summer resort on the Mediterranean. The resident population exceeds 4.0 million, and more than 1 million local summer visitors enjoy the summer season at Alexandria every year. The city is built on a narrow coastal plain extending from Marakia to the west to Abu Quir to the east and Lake Marioute to the south.
Alexandria’s coastal plain is composed of a series of shore-parallel carbonate ridges (about 35 m elevation), which are separated by depressions of shallow lagoons and sabkha. Beach erosion, rip currents, pollution, and SLR are the main problems affecting coastal management at Alexandria
(El Raey et al. 1995, Frihy et al. 1996).
A multi-band LANDSAT TM image (September 1995) of the city was analyzed to identify and map land use classes. A geographic information system was built in an ARC/INFO environment including layers of city district boundaries, topographic maps, land use classes, population and employment of each district, and archaeological sites (El Raey et al. 1995, 1997).
Scenarios of 0.2, 0.5, and 1.0 m SLR over the next century were assumed, taking current land subsidence (2.5 mm yr–1) into consideration. Percentage population and land use areas at risk for each scenario were identified and quantified. Table 1 shows results of the risk of inundation due to each scenario ‘if no action is taken’, over the coastal strip of the waterfront (about 63 km).
The first column (SL = 0.0 m) represents the percentage of each sector currently located at an elevation below sea level. These sectors are currently protected from inundation, either naturally or by hard structures. If sea level rises by 0.25 m, the second column of the table shows the percentages of these sectors that will be inundated. In this case, inundation will affect areas above sea level in all sectors since there is no protection; this is also the case for the other amounts of SLR. These results were used to assess potential losses of employment for each sector.
Analysis of the results indicate that, if no action is taken, an area representing the difference between SLR = 0.5 m and SL = 0.0 m will at least be lost due to a SLR of 0.5 m. This amounts to 45% of the beaches, 13% of the residential area, 12% of the industrial area.
Table 1. Percentages of the population and the areas of different land use currently existing below sea level (SL = 0.0 m) and percentages that will be affected under different sea level rise (SLR) scenarios for the city of Alexandria (El Raey et al. 1999)
Sector / SL = 0.0 m / 0.25 / SLR (m)0.5 / 1.0
Population / 45 / 60 / 67 / 76
Beaches / 1.3 / 11 / 47.8 / 64
Residential / 26.2 / 27.5 / 39.3 / 52
Industrial / 53.9 / 56.1 / 65.9 / 72.2
Services / 45.1 / 55.2 / 75.9 / 82.2
Tourism / 28 / 31 / 49 / 62
Restricted area / 20 / 21 / 25 / 27
Urban / 38 / 44 / 56 / 67
Vegetation / 55 / 59 / 63 / 75
Wetland / 47 / 49 / 58 / 98
Bare soil / 15 / 24 / 29 / 31
Table 2. Area loss, population displaced and loss of employment in each sector due to different SLR scenarios in Alexandria Governorate, assuming a scenario of 1 m SLR by 2100 (El Raey et al. 1997)
SLR (cm) / 18 (2010) / 30 (2025) / 50 (2050)Area loss (km2) / 11.4 / 19.0 / 31.7
Population displaced (x1000) / 252 / 545 / 1512
Loss of Employment
Agriculture / 1370 / 3205 / 8812
Tourism / 5737 / 12323 / 33919
Industry / 24400 / 54936 / 151200
Total loss of employment / 32507 / 70465 / 195443
30% of the services, 21% of tourism, and 14% of the bare soil. At least 1.5 million people in addition to their dependants will have to abandon their homeland, 195 000 jobs will be lost, and an economic loss of over US $35.0 billion is expected over the next century. The analysis shown in Table 2 indicates that the most severely affected employment sector will be industry, followed by tourism and agriculture. A detailed assessment of the impact on each district of the city has also been recently carried out (El Raey et al. 1995, 1999).
Vulnerability assessment of Port Said Governorate
Port Said Governorate is located in the northeastern part of the Nile Delta (30° 50’ N to 31° 00’ N, 32° 00’ E to 32° 30’ E).
The Governorate has a total area of about 1351 km2 and is divided into 5 districts: El Shark,
El Monakh, El Arab, El Dawahi, and Port Fouad. The population of Port Said Governorate is about 0.5 million, the average population density is 391 persons km–2, and the rate of population growth is 1.45%. The actual cultivated land in Port Said Governorate is about 483 km2. This area supports about 2.38% of Egypt’s agricultural activities. The total reclaimed area for agriculture is about 567 km2. The main income of this Governorate depends on revenue from the Suez Canal, tourism, free trade zones and industrial activities.
The industrial activities include food canning, cloth making, carpet weaving, and the leather industry (IDSC 1995). The city assumes strategic importance because of its location on the inlet/outlet of the Suez Canal and because it is the largest economic center close to Sinai on the Mediterranean.
The coastal zone of Port Said area is socioeconomically important to most of the population in this area. Tourism is primarily oriented toward swimming and sunbathing. Therefore, the coast, its slope, and the quality of beach and sea are of prime importance to this industry.
Most tourist facilities such as hotels and youth camps are located within 200 to 300 m of the coast. There are also important archaeological sites along the northern part of the Suez Canal. Many environmental problems exist in the coastal zone of Port Said. Of particular importance are problems of beach erosion, pollution, subsidence, and SLR.
These are detailed in the following sections.
Beach erosion
The projections of the Nile Delta, Rosetta and Damietta are currently undergoing extensive change from both natural and anthropogenic pressures. The highest rate of erosion occurs along the outer margins of these projections. This erosion is a result of the combined effects of cut-off of River Nile sediment discharge by the Aswan High Dam and prevailing coastal processes.
Erosion along the tip of the Damietta projection has adversely affected homes and condominiums to the east at Ras El Bar, and it has destroyed the old coastal road from Damietta to Port Said and the lighthouse west of the river (Frihy et al. 1996). However, a number of protective structures have been constructed along this projection to reduce shoaling in the river entrance. These structures are described in detail by Fanos et al. (1995). SLR is expected to enhance rates of erosion.