More praise for
The Post-American World
“Rarely does a young author and journalist come along in possession of a prophetic brilliance, near-perfect clarity, and a stirring eloquence that combine to inform his readers concerning what lies ahead on the international landscape. Such a person is Fareed Zakaria. . . . In writing this book, Zakaria has performed a great service to America and the rest of the world. The Post-American World is a mirror that helps us examine the role of the United States and numerous other countries with honesty and candor. Readers will be greatly enlightened and richly
rewarded
by
Zakaria’s
exquisite
understanding of international relationships, global politics, and economic development.”
—Claude Lewis, Philadelphia Inquirer
“A provocative and often shrewd take that opens a big picture window on the closing of the irst American century and the advent of a new world. . . .
Mr. Zakaria uses his wide-ranging luency in economics, foreign policy and cultural politics to give the lay reader a lucid picture of a globalized world (and America’s role in it) that is changing at light speed, even as he provides a host of historical analogies to examine the possible fallout of these changes.”
—Michiko Kakutani, New York Times
“Fareed Zakaria has been consistently brilliant in his analysis of world affairs but also something far more rare: he has turned out to have been right.
Now he’s produced another masterpiece of insight.
With great reporting and cultural understanding, Zakaria explains a future shaped by many emerging power centers. This book isn’t about America’s decline, it’s about how it can deploy its unique strengths to prosper as the rest of the world does so as well. It’s a definitive handbook for political and business leaders who want to succeed in a global era.”
—Walter Isaacson, author of Einstein: His Life and Universe
“This is a relentlessly intelligent book that eschews simple-minded projections from crisis to collapse. . .
. Maybe it takes a Bombay-born immigrant like Zakaria, who went from Yale to Harvard . . . and to the top of Newsweek International, to remind this faltering giant of its unique and enduring strengths.”
—Joseph Joffe, New York Times Book Review
“It is refreshing to read Fareed Zakaria, who writes with infectious (though not naïve) sunniness. . . . Mr.
Zakaria makes his case with eloquence but without Panglossian simplicity.”
—Brendan Simms, Wall Street Journal
“Zakaria . . . may have more intellectual range and insights than any other public thinker in the West.”
—David M. Shribman, Boston Sunday Globe
“Zakaria’s The Post-American World is about the
‘rise of the rest,’ a catchy phrase from one of the most widely cited writers on foreign affairs. His prism is correct: We should focus more on the
‘rest,’ even if America is still the premier superpower. . . . As the Iraq war drags on and China rises, the larger story of the post–Cold War era has come into sharp relief: We are not the center of the universe. It matters less that particular countries are pro- or anti-American than that the world is increasingly non-American. We need to get over ourselves.”
—Parag Khanna, Washington Post Book World
“Zakaria . . . is judicious, reasonable, smooth, [and]
intelligent. . . . He points out that, aside from some pockets of backwardness, the whole world has been getting much richer. . . . Even though the economic scene looks gloomier now than it did when he inished his book, Zakaria is correct to insist that many people everywhere have bene itted from the global boom.”
—Ian Buruma, The New Yorker
“Provocative . . . illuminating and right. . . . [In] his welcome contribution to the debate, Fareed Zakaria
. . . deftly avoids the extremes of declinism and triumphalism.”
—Peter Berkowitz, New York Sun
“A far-reaching analysis. . . . Zakaria’s strength lies . .
. in offering a lens through which to understand America’s role in a globalized world.” —Reza Aslan, Slate
“When a book proclaims that it is not about the decline of America but ‘the rise of everyone else,’
readers might expect another diatribe about our dismal post-9/11 world. They are in for a pleasant surprise as Newsweek editor and popular pundit Zakaria . . . delivers a stimulating, largely optimistic forecast of where the 21st century is heading. . . . A lucid, thought-provoking appraisal of world affairs, this book will engage readers on both sides of the political spectrum.”
— Publishers Weekly, starred review
“With characteristic elegance and insight, Zakaria offers a striking picture of the rapid growth of the non-West.”
—G. John Ikenberry, Foreign Affairs
“Sharply observed . . . Fareed Zakaria’s sobering book analyzes the changes afoot as rising global players challenge U.S. dominance. . . . There is no doubt that he is on to important stuff.”
—Stanley Reed, BusinessWeek
“A thoughtful, reasoned and hopeful sketch of global power and politics in the 21st century.”
—David Goldblatt, The Independent (UK)
“Fareed Zakaria is one of the most thoughtful foreign policy analysts of our day and his new book, The Post-American World, is a must-read for anyone
interested
in
globalization—or
the
Presidential election for that matter.”
—Bruce Nussbaum, BusinessWeek.com
“His latest book, The Post-American World, is a highly
informed
and
meticulously
detailed
examination. . . . Studded with statistics, Zakaria’s book is notable for its emphasis on economics as the driving force of global change.”
—Rayyan Al-Shawaf, San Antonio Express-News
“Even if we Americans already know that our country has lost some of its game over the past, say, eight years, Newsweek International editor Fareed Zakaria delivers this message in an altogether new, almost buoyant context.”
—Alan Moores, Seattle Times
“Thought-provoking and important. . . . Fareed Zakaria, whose wise and perceptive editorials in the American magazine Newsweek should be required reading for policymakers around the planet, has reading for policymakers around the planet, has written a minor masterpiece full of pragmatic, informed intelligence. . . . Zakaria is optimistic, though far from complacent. . . . Read Zakaria to know what has, should and will happen.”
—Jason Burke, The Guardian (London)
“This new analysis of America’s role in the world is a serious, readable . . . essential book.”
— The Republic
“Zakaria’s particular perspective makes his analysis and prescriptions truly worth reading.”
—Dan Simpson, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette ALSO BY FAREED ZAKARIA
The Future of Freedom:
Illiberal Democracy at Home and Abroad From Wealth to Power:
The Unusual Origins of America’s World Role (coeditor)
The American Encounter:
The United States and the Making of the Modern World
The
Post-American
World
Release 2.0
Fareed Zakaria
W. W. Norton & Company
New York London
Copyright © 2011, 2008 by Fareed Zakaria All rights reserved
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Zakaria, Fareed.
The post-American world : release 2.0 / Fareed Zakaria.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-393-08180-0 (hardcover)
1. Twenty-first century—Forecasts. 2. International relations—
Forecasting.
3. International economic relations—Forecasting. 4. United States—
Foreign relations—21st century—Forecasting. 5. World politics—21st century—
Forecasting. 6. East and West. 7. Globalization—Forecasting. I. Title.
CB161.Z34 2011
303.49—dc22
2011003996
W. W. Norton & Company, Inc.
500 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10110
www.wwnorton.com
W. W. Norton & Company Ltd.
Castle House, 75/76 Wells Street, London W1T 3QT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0
For
Arshad Zakaria
Growth takes place whenever a challenge evokes a successful response that, in turn, evokes a further and
different challenge. We have not found any intrinisic reason why this process should not repeat itself indefinitely,
even though a majority of civilizations have failed, as a
matter of historical fact.
Arnold J. Toynbee
A Study of History
Contents
Preface
1 The Rise of the Rest
2 The Cup Runneth Over
3 A Non-Western World?
4 The Chalenger
5 The Aly
6 American Power
7 American Purpose
Notes
Acknowledgments
Index
Preface
The irst edition of The Post-American World was written in 2006 and 2007, when America was at the center of the world. The American economy was booming and, despite the setbacks in Iraq, people could not but be impressed by Washington’s military power, which, since 9/11, had been deployed across the world on a scale unmatched in human history. American culture reigned supreme everywhere from Latin America to China. And whatever anyone thought of George W. Bush, there was still a general feeling that America represented the world’s most advanced form of capitalism, run and regulated in a sophisticated fashion. The book was published in the middle of 2008, when the inancial crisis had just begun. The Bear Stearns bailout, in March 2008, seemed to have stabilized the system, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average crept up to 13,000. That fall, the inancial system collapsed and with it the American economy, which contracted by 6 percent in the last quarter and shed almost four million jobs in six months, the largest such decline since the 1930s. The contraction in global trade was actually worse than that of the 1930s.
I would be lying if I said that I had predicted any of this. While I did mention the dangers of cheap credit and wrote about a looming inancial crisis, I thought it would be the garden-variety kind most countries periodically go through, not the seismic shock that actually took place. However, contrary to most predictions by most experts, the effect of the crisis was to accelerate the forces that I described in the book. The inancial crisis hastened the rise of the post-American world. Goldman Sachs has twice revised its predictions of when China will overtake the United States as the world’s largest economy, and it will surely revise them again in light of the slower growth rates caused by the crisis.
The conventional wisdom was that when the West sneezed, the rest would catch pneumonia—
that had been the experience in the past. But this time, the emerging nations of the world had achieved a critical mass and were now able to withstand the dramatic decline in growth in the Western world. In fact, in retrospect, it seems wrong even to describe it as “the global inancial crisis.” For China, India, Brazil, and Indonesia, this has not been much of a crisis. It has resulted in an acceleration of the power shift I described in the book, giving it new force and greater scope. In this edition, I try to explain the consequences of the inancial crisis, the resulting changes in power, diplomacy, and national psyche. China is today a country very different from the one it was just three years ago.
One more big change: Barack Obama became president, and he arrived in the Oval Of ice with an awareness of the trends described in the book. That meant that the book needed to re lect the new political realities in Washington, some of which were positive, others as depressing as ever. I remain convinced that the United States can adapt and adjust to the new world I describe, but the challenges have become greater and more complex, and I outline them with some new research and re lections on the way technology and globalization have combined to create a real crisis of employment for Americans. I also remain convinced that the for Americans. I also remain convinced that the geopolitical challenge of living in a world without a central, dominant power is one that will be acutely felt everywhere, and this too has been amply illustrated over the last few years.
The new edition incorporates my views on the inancial crisis and its effects, the challenges and opportunities for the American economy, and the nature of the new global geopolitics. They are worked in throughout the book, not in any one place. Nowhere have I altered my basic views, so a reader who thought I was wrong three years ago is unlikely to be persuaded that I am now right. I felt that it was important to preserve the basic integrity of the work. I still believe that the challenge for all of us in the twenty- irst century will be to live and prosper in this new and very different world.
1
The Rise of the Rest
This is a book not about the decline of America but rather about the rise of everyone else. It is about the great transformation taking place around the world, a transformation that, though often discussed, remains poorly understood. This is natural. Changes, even sea changes, take place gradually. Though we talk about a new era, the world seems to be one with which we are familiar.
But in fact, it is very different.
There have been three tectonic power shifts over the last ive hundred years, fundamental changes in the distribution of power that have reshaped international life—its politics, economics, and culture. The irst was the rise of the Western world, a process that began in the ifteenth century and accelerated dramatically in the late eighteenth century. It produced modernity as we know it: science and technology, commerce and capitalism, the agricultural and industrial revolutions. It also produced the prolonged political dominance of the nations of the West.
The second shift, which took place in the closing years of the nineteenth century, was the rise of the United States. Soon after it industrialized, the United States became the most powerful nation since imperial Rome, and the only one that was stronger than any likely combination of other nations. For most of the last century, the United States has dominated global economics, politics, science, and culture. For the last twenty years, that dominance has been unrivaled, a phenomenon unprecedented in modern history.