RA IV-17/INF. 4.1(2), p. 2

World Meteorological Organization
REGIONAL ASSOCIATION IV (NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN)
Seventeenth Session
San José, Costa Rica, 27 to 31 March 2017 / RA IV-17/INF. 4.1(2)
Submitted by:
Secretary-General
21.II.2017

PUBLIC WEATHER SERVICES AND THE PROVISION OF MULTI-HAZARD IMPACTBASED FORECAST AND WARNING SERVICES

Moving towards forecasting impacts

1.  Despite the science, technology, data, and other resources that exist in the collective meteorological community, some recent severe weather and associated events have been the cause of many deaths and destruction of properties and loss of livelihoods. The question frequently asked is: how should we, as the meteorological community, change what we are doing so that we can better contribute to mitigating the impacts of severe meteorological events and in particular the loss of life. It is generally agreed that the primary responsibility of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) is to provide timely and accurate forecasts and warnings of meteorological events and hazards. However, in order for governments, economic sectors and the public to take appropriate action, they need to know how the meteorological hazard will impact their lives, livelihoods, property and the economy.

2. Understanding disaster risk and forecasting meteorological impacts are generally beyond the remit of meteorologists and hydrologists. However in most countries, those affected are demanding more than statements of expected weather conditions from their NMHSs (Ref.: CBS-15, Abridged Final Report, Annex VI). Solving this problem is a challenge to developing and developed economies alike. The risk associated with a meteorological hazard depends on knowing how that hazard impacts human beings, their livelihoods, and assets due to their vulnerability and exposure. The sixty-fifth session of the WMO Executive Council (EC65, Geneva, 15-23 May 2013, ref.: EC-65 – Abridged Final Report, general summary – paragraphs 4.1.26-4.1.38) discussed the NMHSs’ move towards impact-based forecasting and risk-based warnings in the provision of public warning services in support of social resilience through behaviour modification in society. Subsequently, CBS tasked the PWS Programme to prepare a set of guidelines to assist Members in the implementation of impact-based forecast and warning services. Responding to this task the PWS experts developed The WMO Guidelines on Multi-hazard Impact-based Forecast and Warning Services (WMO-No. 1150), which was published in 2015. CBS-16 requested the preparation of a step-by-step implementation strategy, including examples of good practice by Members, based on the above-mentioned WMO Guidelines.

3. Issues related to impact-based forecasts and warnings are complex and require planning and forging of partnerships at many levels and with many other government agencies and stakeholders: not only with disaster managers, but also with those responsible for urban planning, education authorities, health authorities, etc. These complexities often lead to reluctance of meteorologists to forecast impacts since extensive knowledge of vulnerability and exposure are required and can only be addressed through data sharing among different agencies and departments. However, forecasting the impact of a hazard (what the weather will do), is often more important than the meteorological forecast (what the weather will be) because it is defined in terms of parameters more readily understood by those at risk and those responsible for mitigating those risks. Such forecasts will ensure that critical weather information is communicated about societal impacts to individuals and sectors most at risk. This information should be made available to the community in a variety of easy-to-understand formats.

4.  The implementation of The WMO Strategy for Service Delivery will be an important tool for integrating impact-based forecasting and risk-based warnings into a common planning framework to maximize benefits and allow for planning and maintenance of observing infrastructure, and efficient implementation of predictive services of Members in support of social resilience and mitigation of impacts. The PWS and underpinning observing capabilities of Members need to be upgraded and strengthened on a continuous basis to cope with the optimum delivery of new services, ranging from day-to-day operations to providing guidance informing decision makers and policy makers on longer timescales.

5.  Due to the emerging and somewhat unfamiliar nature of the subject, the WMO Guidelines on Multi-Hazard Impact-based Forecast and Warning Services have been introduced to a number of Members during national stakeholder workshops in order to familiarize them with the challenges and issues involved. At the request of Curaçao, a Stakeholder Workshop was convened in the country in October 2016 to provide guidance and assistance to Meteorological Department of Curaçao (MDC) and national stakeholders on the implementation of impact-based forecasting for Curaçao. The main goal of the workshop was to help stakeholders develop individual: (a)hazard matrices for those hazards that impacted their particular sector and to separate those into primary, secondary and tertiary hazards; (b)impact matrices to show the impact of a hazard on their particular sector and classify it in terms of the severity of the impact; and (c)mitigation advice matrices for each hazard. This exercise occupied the main duration of the workshop and was a clear first step towards proceeding with thinking about cascading consequences of hazards into impacts and the necessary mitigation actions. Based on the outcome of the analysis of the matrices and discussions on the requirements for next steps, a technical discussion was held with the participation of the Permanent Representative of Curaçao and Sint Maarten with WMO and all the stakeholders and a follow-up plan for the implementation of impact-based forecasting in Curaçao was mapped out. All participants agreed that this new approach to forecasting and warnings would provide them with much more useful information than threshold-driven approach to forecasts of hazards. It was agreed to establish a Working Group on Impact Based Forecasting (IBF) and Warning, coordinated by MDC, which would steer implementation of Impact-based forecasting and warning services. The Working Group would have representatives from MDC and core stakeholders including the Disaster Management Authority, the Red Cross, Legislation and Legal Affairs, Ministry of Traffic, Transport and Urban Planning, Agriculture, Tourism, Ministry of Health, Port Authorities and Port Organization, media/ communication specialist, and others as necessary.

6.  Plans are underway to establish a Global Meteo-Alarm System which will be a portal for displaying and distributing warnings issued by Members. The World Weather Information Service (WWIS) which is a global platform that displays forecasts and climate information for selected cities and the Severe Weather Information Centre (SWIC) which displays cyclone warnings, as well as other related existing platforms will be leveraged in the development of the Global Meteo-Alarm System.

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