Supplementary material to “Impacts of agricultural changes in response to climate and socio economic change on nitrogen deposition in nature reserves”
J. Kros, M.M. Bakker, P. Reidsma, A. Kanellopoulos, S. Jamal Alam, W. de Vries
A complete description of the model linkage used in this study is given in the figure below. Apart from the models FSSIM,RULEX and INITIATOR, use is made of: (i) the crop model WOFOST, predicting changes in crop yields that are used by FSSIM and RULEX, (ii) the market model CAPRI, predicting changes in prices used by FSSIM and (iii) the hydrological model NHI predicting changes in ground water level used by INITIATOR and (iv) the deposition model OPS predicting N deposition in response to changes in NH3 and NOx emissions.
Figure 1: Main flows of inputs and outputs to and from the integrated impact analysis in the Baakse Beek.
WOFOST
WOFOST (www.wageningenur.nl/en/Expertise-Services/Research-Institutes/alterra/Facilities-Products/Software/WOFOST.htm) is a crop growth model that is suited to perform yield calculations at large spatial scales and for a large number of combinations of different weather data, soil characteristics, and crop species. It simulates agricultural yield potential in view of physiological (crop characteristics), physical (soils, climate) and agronomic information (irrigation, fertilizer application) (Boogaard et al. 2013). The principles underlying this model have been discussed in detail by Van Keulen (1986) and the implementation and structure have been described by Van Diepen et al. (1989). WOFOSTcalculates crop growth and production on a daily time step using daily weather data, soil characteristics, crop parameters and information about management practices as input. Assumptions for the current application are described inWolf et al. (2011), and resulting changes in crop yields are documented in the FSSIM applications by Kanellopouloset al. (2014; arable) and Paas (2013; dairy). For grass yields, LINGRA (Bouman et al. 1996) was used instead of WOFOST.
CAPRI
CAPRI (www.capri-model.org/dokuwiki/doku.php) is a comparative static partial equilibrium model for the agricultural sector, developed for policy impact assessment of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and trade policies from global to regional scale, focusing on EU27 level (Britz and Witzke 2012). CAPRI has the capacity to assess economic consequences at the regional level over Europe, based on the linkage of a supply module with a focus on Europe and a global market module. The supply module which covers the EU27, Norway, Western Balkans and Turkey, represents all agricultural production activities and related output generation and input use at regional or farm type level (Gocht and Britz 2011) captured by the Economic Accounts for Agriculture. The model includes variable costs for the different production activities and captures the effects of labour and capital on farmers’ decisions. Prices are exogenous in the supply module and are provided by the market module. The core of the market module consists of a spatial global multi-commodity model for about 50 primary and processed agricultural products, covering about 80 countries or country blocks in the world in 40 trading blocks. This module delivers the output prices used in the supply module and allows for market analysis at global, EU, and national scale including a welfare analysis. CAPRI results include different income indicators such as variable costs, revenues, gross margins, etc., both for individual production activities as for regions and farm types. The CAPRI model has been used in several integrated studies, e.g. for the quantification of greenhouse gas emission profiles of livestock sectors(Lesschen et al. 2011) and agricultural N budgets in Europe (Leip et al. 2011). In this study CAPRI results on future price changes are used in FSSIM to assess impacts on cropping patterns and thereby on farm gross income, farm net income, and farm labour demand.
AMIGO/NHI
AMIGO, the regional version of National Hydrological Instrument (NHI) (Van Ek et al. 2012, www.nhi.nu), was used to assess the changes in groundwater levels, water fluxes and water contents in the Baakse Beek. AMIGO/NHI combines the models MODFLOW (water flow in the saturated zone), MetaSWAP (water flow in the unsaturated zone), WOFOST (crop growth) and DM MOZART (surface water flowin rural water courses). AMIGO/NHI originally operates at a spatial resolution of 250 m x 250 m and a daily time step, but was adapted for the Baakse Beek application towards a spatial resolution of 25 m x 25 m at the same daily time step (Van Ek et al. 2012). MODFLOW (Harbaugh et al. 2000) is a three-dimensional (3D) finite-difference groundwater model. It simulates and predicts groundwater conditions and groundwater/surface-water interactions for the unsaturated zone. DM MOZART (Van den Braak et al. 2006) is a regional surface water model calculating the effects of changing discharges on surface water levels. MetaSWAP (Van Walsum and Veldhuizen 2011), a meta model for the unsaturated zone, includes components for water flow and evaporation, based on calculations with the model SWAP(Kroes et al. 2000) in response to ground water level changes. For each time step, the transient vertical water flow in the unsaturated zone is read from a file with pre-calculated SWAP results.
Deposition calculations
The OPS (Operational Priority Substances) model (Van Jaarsveld 2004; Van Pul et al. 2004), was used for the calculation of the dispersion and deposition of NH3 (and NOx). OPS simulates the atmospheric process sequence of emission, dispersion, transport, chemical conversion, and deposition for a wide variety of pollutants including SOx, NOy, NHx and fine particles. OPS represents a combination of a Gaussian plume model for local-scaleapplication and a trajectory model for long-range transport. Especially in the case of ammonia the local scale plume modelallows for a detailed approach of the low level release height in combination withnear-source deposition. Dry and wet deposition of NHx is calculated with a spatial resolution mainly dependent on the resolution of the emission data. In this study we used OPS version 4.3.12, which is the version that was also used for the Dutch national deposition estimate for 2009 (Velders et al. 2010).
With the combination of INITIATOR and OPS, the NH3 deposition due to agricultural NH3 emission in the Baakse Beek (i.e. the landscape emission) was calculated at a spatial resolution of 100 m × 100 m. The NH3 emissions from housing and storage systems and from the field, both also at a spatial resolution of 100 m × 100 m and calculated by INITIATOR, were used as input for OPS.
The background deposition of NH3was derived at a resolution of 1 km × 1 km. Therefore we used the national total NH3 deposition map, also calculated with OPS, at resolution of 1 km × 1 km for the year 2009 (Velders et al. 2012) as starting point. From this map we subtracted the NH3 deposition due to landscape emissions at a resolution of 1 km × 1 km. These were calculated by an additional OPS run at a 1 km × 1 km resolution. To enable a comparison with the critical N deposition, the total N deposition in nature reserves was calculated by combining the:
· NH3 deposition due to landscape emissions at 100 m × 100 m.
· NH3 deposition due to emissions outside Baakse Beek (and non-agricultural NH3 emission inside the Baakse Beek) at a 1 km × 1 km resolution.
· NOx deposition at a 1 km × 1 km resolution from the national deposition maps (Velders et al. 2010).
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