Learner Resource 8: an Arctic mystery

Should Johann be worried?

Should the businessmen in Panama and Egypt be worried?

The Nunavik cargo ship carried nickel ore from Canada to China via the Arctic Northwest Passage. This was 40% shorter than alternative / normal routes / Big oil companies are applying for permission to begin exploratory drilling in the Arctic, for example ExxonMobil, Shell
Russia has the largest icebreaker fleet in the world with 32 ships. US only has one icebreaker and no plans to build any more / Russia says that the Lomonosov Ridge is part of the Siberian continental shelf and therefore belongs to Russia. This ridge extends almost as far as the North Pole
There is a growing population of Russian people on the (Norwegian) island of Spitzbergen. They work in the coal mines on the island / The Arctic Northwest Passage can save huge amounts of money in fuel costs and reduce greenhouse emissions significantly
Russia has undertaken military exercises in the Arctic / Denmark has created an Arctic Response Force
Vast quantities of oil and natural gas may lie under the Arctic region / Russian fleets have to use GIUK (Greenland, Iceland, UK) gap to reach the Atlantic Ocean
Johann is a member of the Icelandic government / Reserves of gold, zinc, nickel and iron may be found under the Arctic
Drilling for oil and gas will be tough and dangerous; endless darkness, rough seas, sea ice frozen to a depth of 2 metres / The water in the Arctic Northwest Passage is deep and allows larger ships and bigger cargoes to be transported
Americans have withdrawn their forces from Iceland / 6,000 soldiers are being prepared to go to Murmansk
NATO can block Russian fleets by blocking the Skagerrak Strait / Building gas liquefaction operations in the Arctic will be difficult and expensive
By 2040 the Arctic Northwest Passage is expected to be ice free, open and navigable for up to 2 months a year. The Northern Sea Route will also be open for several months / Russia is building 6 new military bases and reopening several old Cold War bases along its Arctic coast, e.g. on the Novosibirsk Islands
Johann feels that a the military vacuum created by withdrawal of American forces could be seen as a lack of interest in the Arctic by NATO / USA has not ratified the UNCLOS treaty and has therefore not claimed its EEZ

The information for this mystery derived from Chapter 10 of ‘Prisoners of Geography’ by Tim Marshall (2015), Elliott and Thompson

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Global Governance: Power and Borders

Answer to the Arctic Mystery and some useful vocabulary

Johann is a member of the Icelandic government. He is concerned because the USA has withdrawn NATO troops from Iceland. This makes it look as though USA and NATO are not concerned with the future of the Arctic. By contrast Russia is actively engaged in building populations, technology and military capacity north of the Arctic Circle. Russia has even staked claim to the Lomonosov Range that stretches close to the North Pole.

To some extent Johann is right to be worried; if sovereignty claims and disputes in the Arctic accelerate Iceland is in a vulnerable position. Iceland is physically vulnerable placed as it is in the narrow stretch of sea from the Norwegian Sea to the Atlantic and it is economically vulnerable to any disruptions / changes to fishing grounds. There are currently nine sovereignty claims and disputes in the Arctic. A ‘New Cold War’?

However maybe Johann should not worry! Unlike periods in the past when territory in Africa and Asia was disputed and fought over, today there are international laws and forums (The Arctic Council, UNCLOS, EEZ) to manage sovereignty claims.

To a large extent businessmen in Panama and Egypt should be worried! If the Arctic opens up to commercial shipping the Panama and Suez Canal will see trade reduced!

Useful vocabulary:

·  UNCLOS – United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea outlines the rights of nations with regard to oceans. It includes details on navigable rights as well as economic rights, conservation and pollution issues, and piracy. .

·  The Arctic Council – a group comprising 8 Arctic countries (member states), plus permanent participants (indigenous groups and indigenous councils), plus those with ‘observer status’ (e.g. non-Arctic states such as the UK and NGOs). The council has different working groups that encourage research, discussion and cooperation in the Arctic.

·  EEZ – the ‘exclusive economic zone’ is an area specified by UNCLOS over which a state has rights regarding resources (fish, energy, water and wind). It extends 200 miles (370 km) from the territorial sea baseline.

·  IMO and The Polar Shipping Code - the International Maritime Organisation is working with stakeholders and interested parties in the Arctic to try to agree on a set of legally binding codes for ships operating in the Arctic – this is beginning to be called the Polar Shipping Code. These codes include for example, standards on ship construction (ice strengthening), employment of on board ice navigators highly trained for polar waters, routines for reporting accidents, management of ballast water, noise reduction.

·  Global Commons – these are areas or resources that are beyond the control of nation states for example the high seas (e.g. Central Arctic Ocean), the atmosphere, Antarctica. They are areas outside or beyond national jurisdiction (ABNJ).

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Global Governance: Power and Borders

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Global Governance: Power and Borders