Building Fta Capacities for Modernization of the Russian Economy

BUILDING FTA CAPACITIES FOR MODERNIZATION OF THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY

BUILDING FTA CAPACITIES FOR MODERNIZATION OF THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY

Purpose

The efficiency of the National Innovation System (NIS) in Russia is the key issue in transition from a resource-based economy to the knowledge-based one. The President’s programme of technological modernization of industries announced in 2010 envisages a set of systemic policy measures aimed at bridging the gaps between key stakeholders – R&D institutions, universities, business and government. S&T Foresight is considered as one of the key instrument to identify national S&T priorities and to formulate long-term prospects of S&T and innovation development in Russia.

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BUILDING FTA CAPACITIES FOR MODERNIZATION OF THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY

Background & Context

The National innovation system (NIS) of Russia has been facing problems hampering transfer of R&D results to the sectors of real economy. Despite of increasing budget R&D funding, the output measured in number of international publications and their citation, innovation activities of industrial enterprises or technology balance of payment has been deteriorating.The share of non-budgetary R&D funding in Russia is much less compared to developed countries; network communications between major NIS stakeholders are underdeveloped;businesses participation in formulation of national R&D agenda is very limited. All this results in ratherlow level of R&D investment performance.

During last years the Russian government has been undertaking a number of initiatives aimed at increasing efficiency of NIS, and FTA is considered as one of the key tools for orienting technology modernization of the national economy.

The wide discussion of the Foresight results – together with the crisis of 2008-2009 (that made many businessmen pay more attention to the longer-term future prospects) – has entailed a burst of interest to FTA in Russia – both at the government level and in many large companies which started perceiving it as a practical instruments for setting strategic goals and finding alternative pathways to achieve them.

Among the latest major steps to enhance productivity of Russian enterprises there are several Government initiatives.

Creation of a system of technology platforms

Development of Programmes of innovation development for the largest Russian companies fully or partly owned by the state.

Planning establishment of a world-class innovation cluster in Skolkovo (Moscow suburban area).

Promotion of Development institutes (Russian Venture Corporation, Rusnano et al).

All above mentioned initiatives to a greater or smaller extent are based on the results of previous nation-wide FTA exercises, including 2006 and 2010 cycles of selection of national S&T priorities and Critical Technologies (Sokolov (2008)), as well as a large-scale S&T Foresight projects covering all major areas of research including a national S&T Delphi survey (Sokolov (2009)) and the recent study of prospective S&T clusters promising the highest social and economic return.

The post-crisis realities highlighted a need for more detailed analyses of prospective S&T studies with a particular attention to be paid to the practical orientation of the national S&T system and bridging the gap between the major components of the Russian triple-helix: S&T, business and the government.

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BUILDING FTA CAPACITIES FOR MODERNIZATION OF THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY

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BUILDING FTA CAPACITIES FOR MODERNIZATION OF THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY

FTA Process

Completed FTA activities

The technological modernization is one of the most important issues of today’s political agenda in Russia. That is why the federal authorities responsible for innovation development have initiated a system of activities to facilitate innovation processes in industries and bridging the gaps between research institutions, universities and businesses. The key roles in this process are played by the Government Commission on High-Technology and Innovation, the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federationand the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation.

In 2006,President of Russia approved the lists of 8 S&T Priorities and 34 Critical Technologies that were used as a background for distribution of R&D funding within the major Government S&T related programmes. In 2009, within the framework of the regular revision of the national S&T priorities, the Ministry of Education and Science initiated the processof revising national critical technologies on then basis of the methodological approaches developed in 2008. Compared to the 2006 lists, there was a much wider background for the revision: the analysis of the results of the National S&TForesight: 2025 provided a basis for identification of future demand for goods and servicesto be enabled by technological developments.

On top of that there was performed thorough expert analysis of the national system of social and economic goals that were formulatedin the Concept of the National Socio-economic Development: 2020 as well as in a number of other major strategic documents of the Russian Federation.

The major government bodies, state academies of sciences, largest state-owned corporations contributed their proposal for revising of the national S&T priorities and Critical Technologies that were analysed in the expert groups combining leading Russian researchers, industrialists and government officials.

According to results of experts surveys and discussions in the expert panels there were created lists of prospective innovative goods and services including ones related to new technologies. On this basis there were identified technology areas with the most promising potential innovation outcomes that were further compiled in the revised lists of S&T Priorities and Critical Technologies. Altogether 6 S&T Priorities in non-military sphere were formulated:

1. Nanoindustry
2. Information and Communication
3. Life Sciences
4. Rational Use of Nature
5. Energy
6. Transportation and Aerospace

The revised list of Critical Technologies consists of 25 items. For each of them there was developed a detailed passport containing a brief description of particular technologies, subject areas, spheres of practical applications, level of technological developmentin Russia vis-à-vis the world leaders, production capacities, assessment of global and national markets for innovation products and service enabled by relevant technologies.

The main instrument for practical implementation of the S&T Priorities and Critical Technologies is the Federal Goal-oriented Programme “R&D in Priority Fields of the S&T Complex of Russia (2007-2012)”, which is complemented by other Federal Goal-oriented programmes like “Federal Space Programme in Russia (2006-2015)”, “Programme for Civil Aviation (2002-2015)”, “National Technological Base (2007-2011)” as well as bya number of sectoral and regional programmes.

The revised S&T Priorities and Critical Technologies formed the basis for the new round of national S&T Foresight exercise with a horizon of 2030 that was concentrated on the key promising technology areas and particular sector-specific studies. Several hundred experts took part in this work. For every area experts identified perspective technological clusters with the highest expected social and economic return. According to the results of expert panels and surveys the clusters were studied with respect to the following issues:

R&D level vis-à-vis the world bestpatterns;

major impact;

resources required to provide competitive status of Russia in particular clusters, including personnel, R&D expenditure, fixed assets et al;

feasibility of implementation of major innovative projects in 15 years ahead;

potential market size.

The main output from the S&T Foresight study was related to the identification of the most important trends of S&T development till 2030; emerging and rapidly growing S&T areas. Analysis of future prospects of the most promising innovative clusters allowed identifying segments of high-technology markets where Russia can strengthen its competitive advantages.

For two of those clusters (“Catalysts for social-oriented applications” and “Tissue engineering and bioartificial organs”) there were developed pilot technology roadmaps demonstrating procedures of building a long-term vision and identification of alternative trajectories to achieve the roadmap objectives.

Based on the Foresight results there were proposed a number of large-scale innovation projects to be funded within public-private partnership programmes; identified key areas of research for funding within the Federal Goal-oriented Programme “R&D in Priority Fields of the S&T Complex of Russia (2007-2012)”; formulated measures for building S&T capacities (funding, human resources et al); analysed potential S&T policy instruments to be introduced.

The key areas for S&T policy intervention were focused on restructuring of the public R&D sector; introducing mechanisms of research evaluation; monitoring and evaluating S&T and innovation policy implementation; elaborating efficient result-oriented mechanisms of R&D funding, including planning of basic research; building institutions to support R&D and innovation et al.

Building a complex national system of S&T Foresight

Basing on the results achieved during the last 5 years the Ministry of Education and Science has developed a framework for the next round of S&T Foresight to be implemented in 2011-2013. This cycle will cover a wide range of activities aimed at increasing innovation activities in Russia and concentration of resources on the most promising S&T areas with respect to particular market segments and innovation products and services. The Foresight will cover all areas of S&T and a number of sectors of economy where new technologies can bring the largest effect.

Major principles of the emerging Foresight system include orientation on and integration in the S&T policy agenda and provision of policy-makers with practical instruments to facilitate innovation development in Russia. In other words, the new system should follow the Fully-Fledged Foresight approach (see Georghiou et al (2008), p.37).

There are envisaged several major components of the Foresight programme:

Foresight of key future areas of basic research;

Macroeconomic scenarios and modeling of principal macroeconomic indicators;

Development of complex models to forecast indicators of S&T, innovation and education development;

Foresight of future demand for S&T related competences and skilled workforce in S&T and high-tech sectors;

Building series of roadmaps for key sectors of economy and the most promising groups of products and services;

Development of a complex S&T and innovation Foresight .

The methodological basis for the above-mentioned activities will include a wide range of qualitative and quantitative methods: horizon scanning, bibliometric and patent analysis, statistical models, expert surveys, literature reviews, and many others.

There will be identified key challenges facing the Russian National innovation system; assessed global trends of S&T development, revised national S&T and innovation capacities with respect to their availability for technological modernization of the Russian economy.

The Foresight activities will also cover the two principal instruments initiated by theGovernment Commission on High-Technology and Innovation:creation of technology platforms and elaboration of “compulsory” programmes of innovation development forlarge companies fully or partly owned by the state. The main goal of these initiatives is encouraging business to innovate and bridge the gaps between industrial enterprises, research units and universities. It is supposed that facilitating the dialog between S&T and businesses will lead to closer cooperation and formulation of the national research agenda better focused on the real needs of economy.

Each technology platform has to develop a set of strategic documents including a technology roadmap and research agenda that, together with the Foresight results, will be considered as a background for adjusting the National R&D effort to the needs of businesses. The strategic documents of technology platforms will bedeveloped according to FTA methodologies andwill be used for identification of promising research projects to be funded through the federal goal-oriented R&D programmes, as well as for innovation support through the public procurement of innovation goods and services.

The list of technology platforms will be approved by the Governmental Commission on High-Technology and Innovation.

The programmes of innovation development to be developed by the largest state-owned companies also envisage FTA related activities. The companies in their Programmes have torepresent corporate vision for a ten-year horizon of innovation activities, with the ambitious goals of increasing competitiveness at local and global markets(and relevant key performance indicators), technological modernisation, radically increasing R&D effort (e.g. via closer collaboration with R&D unit and universities in particular).

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BUILDING FTA CAPACITIES FOR MODERNIZATION OF THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY

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BUILDING FTA CAPACITIES FOR MODERNIZATION OF THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY

Output & Impacts

The newly designed S&T and innovation policyinstrumentsin Russiainclude FTA as an integral part. The largest state-owned companies are forced to include FTA activities to their Programmes of Innovation Development. Every technology platform has to develop a Vision and a Roadmap with indication of principal technology related milestones, barriers and risks. The Skolkovo Foundation has started Foresight studies aimed at identification of key technology areas to be supported.

To build new FTA capacities there has been established a network of Foresight centres at the leading Russian technological universities, which is supported through the programme for development of universities’ innovation infrastructure. The networks will also provide monitoring of technology trends in particular areas and a more systemic involvement of private businesses in FTA studies, thus bridging the gap between key NIS stakeholders.

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BUILDING FTA CAPACITIES FOR MODERNIZATION OF THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY

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BUILDING FTA CAPACITIES FOR MODERNIZATION OF THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY

<Sources and References>

1. Sokolov, A. (2008) Russian Critical Technologies 2015. Collection of EFMN Briefs. Part 1, Directorate-General for Research Co-operation. Brussels: European Commission.
2. Sokolov, A. (2009) The Future of Science and Technology: Results of a Delphi Study, Foresight, №2 (vol. 10), pp.58–67 (in Russian).
3. Georghiou, L., Harper, J.C., Keenan, M., Miles, I., Popper, R. (2008) The Handbook of Technology Foresight. Concepts and Practices. Edward Elgar, UK.

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