2.1. Current Situation Total Population. General Dynamics in the Period 1990- 2007

CONTENT

0. Introduction ……………………………………………………………………………………………………..3

1. Summary …………………………………………………………………………………………………………3

1. Demographics……………………………………………………………………………………………………..6

2.1. Current situation – Total population. General dynamics in the period 1990- 2007......

2.1.1. Distribution per residential areas (urban/rural) ……………………………………………………6

2.1.2. Distribution per gender………………………………………………………………………………6

2.1.3. Structure per age groups ……………………………………………………………………………6

2.1.4. Ethnic structure ………………………………………………………………………………………7

2.1.5. Migration ……………………………………………………………………………………………7

2.2. Demographic forecasts for 2025...... 8

2.3. Main conclusions from the demographic analysis. Implications for TVET……………………………. 10

3. The county economic profile……………………………………………………………………………………. 12

3.1. Current situation – Main economic indicators for the period 2000-2006...... 12

3.1.1. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the Gross Added Value (GAV) ………………………...13

3.1.2. The general dynamics of the companies in the county (gross investments, direct foreign investments, the unit’s dynamics local assets, SME……………………………...... 14

3.2. Forecast for the main economic indicators for 2013...... 15

3.3. Other information and partial data...... 15

3.2.1 European integration process and the competitiveness requirements...... 15

3.2.2. Research – development …………………………………………………………………………….15

3.2.3 Industry……………………………………………………………………………………………….15

3.2.4. Transport, technical, urban, communication and environment infrastructure………………...16

3.2.5. Agriculture…………………………………………………………………………………………..17

3.2.6. Forestry………………………………………………………………………………………………17

3.2.7. Tourism………………………………………………………………………………………………18

3.2.8. Sustainable development. Specific aspects for the rural-mountain area ………………………..18

3.4. Main conclusions from the analysis of the economic environment. Implications for TVET………….20

4. Labor market……………………………………………………………………………………………………24

4.1. Statistic indicators for the labor market…………………………………………………………………24

4.1.1. Main indicators, according to the data supplied by the Workforce Balance………………….....24

4.1.2. Registeredunemployment...... …………………………………………25

4.1.3. Unemployment structure per age groups. Youth unemployment……...... 25

4.1.4. Long-term unemployment...... 25

4.1.5. Structure of the civil employedpopulation per main activities in the economy...... 26

4.1.6. The vacancy rate per activities in the national economy ...... 27

4.1.7. The average number of workers per activities in the national economy, region, county...... 27

4.2.Partial data………………………………………………………………………………………………….28

4.2.1. Comparative analysis per occupations for unemployment and vacancies registered in the period 2003 – 2008...... ……… 28

4.2.1.1. Main findings from the analysis of the evolution at the level of relevant occupations for the vocational education and technological high school ...... 28

4.2.1.2. Main findings from the analysis of the evolution at the level of relevant occupations for the post-highschool education ...... 30

4.2.1.3. Main findings from the analysis of the evolution at the level of relevant occupations for the higher education ...... 31

4.2.2. The evolution of unemployment and vacancies registeredby NAEin the period October 2008 – March 2009, in the context of the economic and financial crisis...... 31

4.3 . Short-term forecast for occupations and qualification deficit (inquiries) …………………………….32

4.3.1. Inquiries in enterprises, March 2007 (Phare TVET 2004) ……………………………………….32

4.3.2 Inquiries among employers and employees, 2006, INSCMPS………………………………….....32

4.4. Medium-term forecast for job demand and offer ...... 35

4.5. Main conclusions from the analysis of the labor market. Implications for TVET...... 36

5. Technical and vocational education and training in AlbaCounty……………………………………...... 42

5.1. The context of vocational education and training policies ……………………………………………...42

5.1.1.The European context ……………………………………………………………………………….42

5.1.2.The national context ………………………………………………………………………………….44

5.2. Specific context indicators………………………………………………………………………………..46

5.2.1.Demographic context and the school population…………………………………………………..46

5.3. Input indicators for the period 2003 - 2008…………………………………………………………47

5.3.1. The number of students per teaching staff………………………………………………………..47

5.3.2.Human Resources in the TVET. ……………………………………………………………………47

5.3.3.Physicalresources and learning conditions…………………………………………………………48

5.4.Process indicators…………………………………………………………………………………………49

5.4.1.Decision-making mechanisms and functional decentralization in TVET …………………………49

5.4.2.Quality assurance in TVET………………………………………………………………………….50

5.4.3.Carrier guidance and counseling services. The students' options…………………………………50

5.5.Outputindicators for the period 2000 -2008………………………………………………………..51

5.5.1.The net enrolment rate in the vocational education and training system……………….………..51

5.5.2. Gross Enrolment rate in the education (Specific school enrolment rate per age)…...... 51

5.5.3. School drop-out rate, per ISCED levels of education …………………………………………….51

5.5.4. Completion rates, per ISCED levels of education …………………………………………………..52

5.5.5. Success rate…………………………………………………………………………………………...53

5.5.6. The transition rate at the following level of education ...... 53

5.5.7. The EarlySchool Leaving rate ……………………………………………….53

5.5.8 The percentage of students with a low level of reading/literacy proficiency(PISA)……………54

5.5.9 Weigh of the 20-24 y.o. population who graduated at least the higher secondary education …..54

5.5.10. Rate of Adult Participation in LLL (25-64 years old)……………………………….54

5.6.Impact indicators……………………………………………………………………………………………54

5.6.1. The impact of the technical and vocational education and training on the unemployment rate 54

5.6.2. The insertion rate for graduates 6 months after the graduation, per levels of education………. 55

5.6.3. The level of using the competences acquired by graduates at the work place……………………55

5.7. The school’s offer from the countyTVET………………………………………………………………..55

5.7.1. The evolution of schooling plans in the period 2002 - 2009………………………………………..55

5.7.2. The analysis of the current offer - initial vocational training (school year 2008-2009) …………56

5.7.3. The 2009/2010 schooling plan project. Targets for 2013 per training areas (cumulated for

levels 2 and 3)...... 58

5.7.4.The schools’ offer in the TVET for adult training………………………………………………..58

5.7.5.School networks…………………………………………………………………………………..59

5.7.6.Partnership with enterprises…………………………………………………………………………59

5.7.7.Territorial distribution of the initial vocational training offer …………………………………… 60

5.8. Main conclusions from the analysis of the countyTVET ………………………………………………64

6. Progress monitoring in the LEAP implementation………………………………………………………….68

7. SWOT analysis for correlating the vocational training offer with the demand …………………………..71

8. Summary of main conclusions and objectives for TVET development forecasted for 2013……………….72

9. Action plan –measures for reaching the TVET development objectives for 2013……...... 76

Appendix A to the measure plan – Targets on Training Fields for the Structure of the Enrolment Plans ……………………………………………………………………………………………………….83

10.Consistency of the LEAP update team. ALBA LCDSPConsistency …………...... 85

0. Introduction

The planning process in the long-term vocational education and training system is structured on four levels: (1) the strategies issued at the national level by the Ministry of Education and Research, (2) the Regional Action Plans for the Technical and Vocational Education and Training (REAP), (3) the Local Plans (LEAP - at the county level) and (4) the School Action Plans (SAP).

The REAP-LEAP-SAP planning process started in 2003 and is revised annually. Starting with 2005, the year 2013 was taken as the planning horizon (for covering the period adopted in the National Plan and the Regional Development Plans 2007-2013 which, in their turn, were synchronized with the EU programs’ planning horizon).

LEAP is an action framework at the county level based on a set of priorities and measures, resulting from analysis and harmonized with those agreed upon by REAP at the regional level. Also, LEAP offers a reference framework for issuing the action plans (SAP) by each particular school. The document is made by a team consisting of the members of the Local Committee for Developing the Social Partnership for Vocational Training (LCDSP)

The main purpose of LEAP is to contribute, via measures coordinated with the other planning level, to an improved correspondence between the offer of the vocational education and training system and the social demand, from the integrated perspective of the county's or region's economic and social development needs.

After being approved by the Local Committee for Developing the Social Partnership for Vocational Training (LCDSP), LEAP is approved by the School Inspectorate as a long-term strategic planning frame document at the county level.

1. Summary

The analyses in this document trace the demographic evolutions and trends of the labor market and of the county's economy (from the perspective of the current and future education demand), as well as the current situation of the county vocational and technical education (the vocational education and training offer).

The findings- expressed from the perspective of implications for the further development of the county vocational and technical education - are presented briefly at the end of each chapter of analysis, as conclusions and recommendationsin the attention of stakeholders at different decision levels in the vocational education and training system. The summary of main conclusions and objectives of the TVET development for 2013 are presented in chapter 8.

Measure plan - suggested for putting into action the main conclusions and recommendations, is presented in chapter 9 and it represents the end goal of the analysis process.

The demographic analysis indicates a general decline of the population, especially for the young age groups, accompanied by an ageing population. The demographic analysis also shows an ethnical diversity (Hungarian, German and Rroma population), the slightly increasing weigh of the rural population, slight dominance of the female population and draws attention on the implications of the migration (especially the increasing external migration).

The demographic findings recommend measures at the level of the school network for rationalizing the offer compared to the qualification needs and territorial coverage (segmenting the offer by differentiating/ eliminating parallel courses between schools in near-by territories), providing access to vocational education and training (focused on the quality of services and the variety of options), optimizing resources (concentrating the resources in viable schools at the same time with solving access problems/investments in schools from areas with a reduced mobility due to objective reasons- deficient transport infrastructure/isolated areas/poor social conditions, etc.). Furthermore, it invites the schools to collaborate within a network and to diversity their service offer (especially in adult training, for compensating the loss in school population).

The conclusions of the county economic area analysis refer to a significant increase in investments (industry, transport, storage, communications, trade) and of companies with foreign capital; the creation of industrial parks (Zlatna), strategic orientation towards branches with a large added value: construction materials, food industry, manufacturing ecological products, electronics, IT, fine mechanics, services for enterprises, etc. At the same time with the restructuring in the industry which affected large companies, there is an increase of personnel in small and medium size enterprises.

Given that the mountain region covers a significant area in the county's surface, a distinct section is affected by the analysis of the mountain rural issue,from the social-economic perspective of localities and peasant households, of the environment and of the sustainable development - leading to the need of a coherent programme of specific measures for the vocational education and training at the county level.

The main findings from the labor market analysis indicate a decrease in the active population and a slight increase of the working population in the last year analyzed (2007). The activity and working rates for the civil population are higher than the regional and national level. Furthermore, the unemployment rate is above the regional average. The evolution and the comparative structure per levels of training of the working population and unemployed people highlight that the opportunities to get a job, respectively the opportunities to avoid unemployment, increase with the increase in the level of training. The general level of education of the working population in the county is far higher than the regional average, but significant differences can be seen per residential areas (the training level of the working population in the rural area is far more reduced than in the urban area).

Per large sectors of activity, in 2006, the services sector is the most dominant, with a weigh of 48.3% from the GAV, followed by the industry (34.5%), agriculture (12.4%) and constructions (4.8%).

Similarly to the GAV evolution, one can notice the constant decreasing trend in the past years of the number and weigh of the working (civil) population in the industry and agriculture, parallel with the increase in services and constructions.

In the hierarchy of economic sectors, from the point of view of civilian working force, services are on top position (38.6%), followed by agriculture (28.8%), industry (28.6%), constructions.

The forecasts resulting from the NSRIFLSP (National Scientific Research Institute for Labor and Social Protection) on the long-term demand and offer, per sectors of activity (2013) estimate a decrease in the demand in agriculture, extractive industry, public administration and defense, education, respectively an increase in the demand in the processing industry, constructions and most services - trade, hotels and restaurants, transports, storage, communications, real estate, renting and service provision especially to companies. According to the NSRIFLSP study, there is a forecast of workforcesurplus in agriculture and industry. It is estimated that a significant surplus of the population will have to be reoriented from agriculture to other activities. However, qualitatively speaking, the agriculture will require less workforce but far more qualified. In the processing industry, although the balance will not be favorable to the workforce, the increased demand will lead to a gradual reduction of the workforcesurplus. A workforce deficit is also estimated in constructions, trade, transports, storage, communications, hotels and restaurants. The NSRIFLSP forecasts made in 2005 on the job demand and offer for 2013 are questioned by the recent evolutions of the labor market given the economic crisis and the last forecasts from the Romanian National Forecast Commission.

The chapter on the vocational education and training analyzes the European and national context, as well as the main indicators that define the educational context, the evolution of the school population, the situation of human resources in the technical and vocational education and training, the learning conditions (material basis), the expenditures, the number of students per teacher, the implications of the functional decentralization and the importance of involving social partners, the degree of coverage of the carrier guidance and counseling, the students’ options for TVET, the evolution of the inclusion rates in education and school drop-out rates, the transition rates per educational levels, etc. A detailed analysis is dedicated to the current offer for the initial vocational training in TVET, ascertaining the process based on the previous strategic planning exercises (REAP and LEAP), but also certain aspects that have to be further improved. The schools' involvement in adult training is also analyzed. The main findings from the analysis of the vocational education and training system in AlbaCounty are synthesized at the end of the chapter, from the perspective of measures recommended for increasing relevance and quality compared to the beneficiaries’ needs.

Correlating the conclusions from the labor market and regional economy analyses with the findings from the analysis of the current TVET offer led to drafting recommendations for the schooling plans, as targets for 2013 and are presented in Appendix A to the measure plan. To this end, analysis references were used - with the due caution given the methodological limitation of the process and the uncertainty generated by the current economic crisis - from the evolution of occupation groups for vacant position and unemployed persons in the CALFO evidence in the period 2003 – 2008, and were correlated with other statistic information and partial data presented in the chapters on the labor market and the regional economic context.Given the current uncertainties from the economic crisis,it is recommended continuing monitoring the monthly evolutions of the workforce indicators (unemployment – jobs). Also, it is recommended to update the NSRIFLSP forecasts on the medium-term job demand and offer.

For the measure plan the following priorities are determined, presented in detail in chapter 9:

PRIORITY 1:Correlating the TVET offer in the county with the qualification needs

Objective 1.1: Identifying the qualification needs

Objective 1.2: Adapting the offer for initial vocational training to the qualification needs

Objective 1.3: Diversifying the guidance and counseling services offered in the TVET schools

Objective 1.4: Providing the quality services in TVET schools

PRIORITY 2: Developing carrier guidance and counseling services

Objective 2.1: Improving mechanisms for facilitating access to education and occupying a job

PRIORITY 3: Rehabilitation and modernization of the infrastructure and equipments in TVET schools

Objective 3.1: Improving learning conditions in TVET

PRIORITY 4: Developing the professional competences of human resources in TVET

Objective 4.1: Developing methodical and specialty competences for the teaching staff in TVET

PRIORITY 5: Developing and diversifying the school partnership in TVET

Objective 5.1: Developing, diversifying and increasing the efficiency of partnership relations, for decision-making and providing quality services via the TVET system.

PRIORITY 6: Providing access to the TVET and increasing the level of inclusion in education

Objective 6.1: Facilitating access to education via TVET, preventing and reducing the school drop-out

2. Demographics

2.1 Current situation – Total population.General dynamics in the period 1990-2007

On the 1st of July 2007, AlbaCounty had 376086 persons (14.9% of the population in the Center) – see table 2.1.

The statistics supplied by NIS highlight a significant decrease in the population in the period between the two censuses (1992 and 2002), a trend which continues at the present moment (see period 2002-2005).

Tab.2.1

Source: NIS, processed data

2.1.1.Distribution per residential areas (urban/rural)

According to the statistic data for 2007 (see tab.2.1.), AlbaCounty is rather highly urban (58.3%), lower than the regional level (59.6%), but above the national average. (55.1%).

2.1.2.Distribution per gender

The structure per gender indicates according to the entire population at the county level a slight female dominance (50.6%), close to the regional weigh (51.0%) (see tab.2.1). In the rural area, the report is balanced,with a slight advantage for the male population (see Appendix 1a).

2.1.3.Structure per age groups

Fig.2.2

Source: NIS, processed data

In the 15-19 y.o. age group, on the 1st of July 2007, there was 7.1% at the county level and 7.2% at the regional level.